July pattern(s) and discussion

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't see last summer. Some signs it may cool off to start Aug, but that's far away. Next 2 weeks look very summery.

I don’t know, he might be able to make it seem like last summer by using the temps at BDL and combining that with the mulch bed Davis dews, lol.  

Still blows my mind that all that gets posted are BDL temps and 10 day BDL forecasts to argue temps... but then quotes his 64F Davis dew as a sign of it being humid when Td’s are ORH 49F, BDL 55F and IJD 56F.

Its really incredible lol.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t know, he might be able to make it seem like last summer by using the temps at BDL and combining that with the mulch bed Davis dews, lol.  

Still blows my mind that all that gets posted are BDL temps and 10 day BDL forecasts to argue temps... but then quotes his 64F Davis dew as a sign of it being humid when Td’s are ORH 49F, BDL 55F and IJD 56F.

Its really incredible lol.

That's why he is in sales. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's why he is in sales. 

Ha true, making low grade BDL heatwaves sound like last summer’s 101/74 days.  

Probably could sell Mreaves another LG washing machine.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It's going to get warm to hot. No denying it. Maybe not 100, but I see lots of 88-96 temp range stuff for many days. Some days U80s, some mid 90s. 

Heh... not to quibble over tedious differences ... but, anything > 94 to me is "big heat" ...so overlapping there, particularly when DPs may approach the upper 60s concurrently at any point. That strikes me as less meaningfully different?   I mean, 96/68 is going to feel like 101/60 ... so "maybe not a 100" ... should have been followed by "88 to 92" with less qualifier for this weird DP obsession around here  heh

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha true, making low grade BDL heatwaves sound like last summer’s 101/74 days.  

Probably could sell Mreaves another LG washing machine.

101/74 ? 

where did that happen?      ...I know I know.. 

[weathafella]

Today is sneaky hot.  Logan already 80.

[Typhoon Tip]

I also think/wonder if the futility of the GFS and/or it's ensemble mean ... if they're going to run the model out to 380 hours like that, they should try and adopt some form or variance or another of what the Euro does with it's smoothing techniques.  

Neither model ( or any model I should say ...) is likely to ever perform with much remarkable accurracy beyond D6 or 7 without some form of direct atmospheric controls ( deep future sci fi ) anyway... but, so long as they insist on using the bandwidth, try to integrate some technique that stops that model from automatically buckling giant mass fields into a frenzies curvi-linear mess ... It can't hurt -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Today is sneaky hot.  Logan already 80.

Hot and dry, just how we draw it up for a good ole fashioned summer.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

101/74 ? 

where did that happen?      ...I know I know.. 

Ha not quite that high... looks like BDL had a variety of mid/upper 90s with mins of like 73 or 74 but you’re right, no century mark.  

101/74 or 98/74...all fukkin hot lol.

[dendrite]

To be fair, last July's top 2 temps at BDL were 98F and 95F. So far this month it's already 96F and 94F.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today is sneaky hot.  Logan already 80.

Mentioned that last night, yup - 

I guess folks aren't really concerned with it, or paying much attention if we're not talking 96/69 ... but, today through/some point this weekend ...there is a shot at a low-grade heat wave.  Weak sauce... you betcha.  90/58 meh.  But DPs will rise during... Friday could 90/72 for HI of 99 ... 

[powderfreak]

Just now, dendrite said:

To be fair, last July's top 2 temps at BDL were 98F and 95F. So far this month it's already 96F and 94F.

Those dews last summer judging by some of the mins were the real story it looks like. Nights in the mid-upper 70s at SNE stations.  

Even in NNE, I think BTV has some obscene 80s at like 3am lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 I was wondering when that first drought post would be.   The long range does look pretty dry but being New England I can't see it lasting too long.  

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh... not to quibble over tedious differences ... but, anything > 94 to me is "big heat" ...so overlapping there, particularly when DPs may approach the upper 60s concurrently at any point. That strikes me as less meaningfully different?   I mean, 96/68 is going to feel like 101/60 ... so "maybe not a 100" ... should have been followed by "88 to 92" with less qualifier for this weird DP obsession around here  heh

I could see a lot of 88-92 stuff as well. That's why I didn't exactly mention big heat per se, but sure some days will have it. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Those dews last summer judging by some of the mins were the real story it looks like. Nights in the mid-upper 70s at SNE stations.  

Even in NNE, I think BTV has some obscene 80s at like 3am lol.

The 96/74 this past Saturday at BDL is a warmer mean temp than anything they had last summer. Closest was 95/74 on 8/29/18.

[Damage In Tolland]

Runaway has been following him religiously. He’s saying it’s go time on furnace .

 

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean, 96/68 is going to feel like 101/60 ... so "maybe not a 100" ... should have been followed by "88 to 92" with less qualifier for this weird DP obsession around here  heh

I think you touched on why in your post... the dew point has so much factor in how it feels outside that it almost seems more important than the temp.  

I know at the mountain our outdoor staff of 50 college kids and international students working a variety of activities, lifts, etc that the dew point seems to impact them more than temperature just anecdotally in how they perceive the day.  Most of them have no idea what a dew point is but the humidity plays a huge role.  

The dew point is like the summer version of wind chill and has a real impact on comfort outdoors.  A 5F day of skiing can be real enjoyable with no wind, but 5F with 40mph gusts can be brutal.  Same for summer, a 88/55 day can be pretty decent to work outdoors but 88/70 is just dripping sweat and soaked outdoors.

[dendrite]

Cranky still blows

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, dendrite said:

To be fair, last July's top 2 temps at BDL were 98F and 95F. So far this month it's already 96F and 94F.

Honestly ... I fully believe this ( interesting comparison by the way! )  has a lot to do with what folks see in the models? 

Last summer's early July goop was perhaps overly curved with ridging ... particularly in the GFS.. but even the Euro was a Venetian bubble...  Yet, where it turned out not to be as tall or spatially correctly axial, it was definitely vastly over produced in those GFS operational monster surface results. Late June when it began modeling surface 2-meter temperatures of 115 at Beford Mass...  Um..  really - 

It was a standard heat wave the more I scratch head and think back.  At least where ever I was ... I didn't get more than 98 but once, at the Davis' around my town, and most days were 94-ish... Granted, the DPs were running 74 to 78 ...which we can debate that whatever -  look, it was impressively hot.  But it wasn't "as hot" as it can be, or has been... 1911 ... 1930s... 'Hot Saturday 1975' ...etc.. 

But, my point was going to be ... if the models this year had that big impression of the apocalypse ridge, that seems to resonate more with folks' interpretation.  I just got done musing about this above.. how we are getting heat despite the look aloft. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The 96/74 this past Saturday at BDL is a warmer mean temp than anything they had last summer. Closest was 95/74 on 8/29/18.

Shit I had no idea it was that hot with a high min.  That’s more than legit.  

Probably a 96/80 type afternoon with the BDL temp/mulch dew combo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cranky still blows

Cranky says Install and crank em’ indefinitely 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think you touched on why in your post... the dew point has so much factor in how it feels outside that it almost seems more important than the temp.  

I know at the mountain our outdoor staff of 50 college kids and international students working a variety of activities, lifts, etc that the dew point seems to impact them more than temperature just anecdotally in how they perceive the day.  Most of them have no idea what a dew point is but the humidity plays a huge role.  

The dew point is like the summer version of wind chill and has a real impact on comfort outdoors.  A 5F day of skiing can be real enjoyable with no wind, but 5F with 40mph gusts can be brutal.  Same for summer, a 88/55 day can be pretty decent to work outdoors but 88/70 is just dripping sweat and soaked outdoors.

Oh.. I know - 

I meant, there are 'certain individuals' who've come to familiarization as wanting that ...  (implicit) ...  

Preferences aside though...  you know, my aunt was in Arizona.   Buck 10 if it was 90 she said you couldn't hardly tell the difference, but your nose cracked and bled if you dare sneezed.   Figuratively speaking... We all know desert heat is different from wet heat, too, but I've never experienced that.  It's on my odd little bucket list of things to do... step off plane, 120/19, just to say I did -

[Typhoon Tip]

Okay... time to start a petition thread/polling to submit to Brian ... If we get enough signatures, it is no longer allowed to re-post tweets here.

[BrianW]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

yeah I was actually about to check river levels but I'm pretty certain they are quite high. 

This was posted in the tropical forum.

Hell Is High Water
When will the Mississippi River come for New Orleans?

....One of the most unnerving aspects of this year’s record high water is that it now coincides with the start of hurricane season. The Army Corps’ river levees are built with the assumption that tropical storms would coincide with a river only 8 feet high—less than half its present height. Hurricane Katrina pushed a surge of 13 feet up the river. Hurricane Isaac made the river run backward, with a surge of 8 feet up to Baton Rouge. A storm surge of that size right now would cause the Mississippi to overtop the levees in New Orleans, a catastrophe in its own right that would weaken the barriers below, threatening worse.

https://slate.com/business/2019/06/new-orleans-mississippi-river-high-water-climate-change.html

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh.. I know - 

I meant, there are 'certain individuals' who've come to familiarization as wanting that ...  (implicit) ...  

Preferences aside though...  you know, my aunt was in Arizona.   Buck 10 if it was 90 she said you couldn't hardly tell the difference, but your nose cracked and bled if you dare sneezed.   Figuratively speaking... We all know desert heat is different from wet heat, too, but I've never experienced that.  It's on my odd little bucket list of things to do... step off plane, 120/19, just to say I did -

Ha yup I’m with you there.  I went to Phoenix once in June and I think was near 100F walking out of the airport, and it felt like stepping into an oven.  But 5 minutes later you are used to it and oddly it didn’t feel all *that* hot.  It’s very weird.  But I want to do the like 120F type temps.  

Its so different from walking out of West Palm Beach airport where it’s only 88F but your body is just instantly damp and soaked within minutes of going outside.  Almost like an allergic reaction to 88/76 where your body can’t produce enough water to cool you off.  Meanwhile you feel like you could do a 5-mile run at 100F in Phoenix and hardly break a sweat.

[weatherwiz]

what really defines a pattern...and to be more specific hot and humid? BDL is just a bizarre place...or heck perhaps even any major airport just b/c the influences of the environment aren't "natural"...but does that make the readings irrelevant?...no. Of course someone who lives in a major city is going to have a differing opinion of the weather than someone living in the hills or a forested location. But if its 96/72 at BDL but only 86/66 at some forested or heavily "veggie" environment the person at BDL is going to say hot/humid while the other is going to differ...so which is correct? 

IMO, the answer comes down to climo of each environment. In retrospect the climo at these locations shouldn't differ by all that much...but let's say BDL is running +6...well in a perfect world that other location should also be running near +6. 

what I'm trying to get at is you can't define these things by the reading of the thermometer but by the anomaly of the event. 

Based on the below map...whether you live deep inside the forest or are tanning on the tarmac since the start of the month its been toasty based on the anomaly of the pattern

 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, BrianW said:

This was posted in the tropical forum.

Hell Is High Water
When will the Mississippi River come for New Orleans?

....One of the most unnerving aspects of this year’s record high water is that it now coincides with the start of hurricane season. The Army Corps’ river levees are built with the assumption that tropical storms would coincide with a river only 8 feet high—less than half its present height. Hurricane Katrina pushed a surge of 13 feet up the river. Hurricane Isaac made the river run backward, with a surge of 8 feet up to Baton Rouge. A storm surge of that size right now would cause the Mississippi to overtop the levees in New Orleans, a catastrophe in its own right that would weaken the barriers below, threatening worse.

https://slate.com/business/2019/06/new-orleans-mississippi-river-high-water-climate-change.html

That is something I am quite concerned about 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

what really defines a pattern...and to be more specific hot and humid? BDL is just a bizarre place...or heck perhaps even any major airport just b/c the influences of the environment aren't "natural"...but does that make the readings irrelevant?...no. Of course someone who lives in a major city is going to have a differing opinion of the weather than someone living in the hills or a forested location. But if its 96/72 at BDL but only 86/66 at some forested or heavily "veggie" environment the person at BDL is going to say hot/humid while the other is going to differ...so which is correct? 

IMO, the answer comes down to climo of each environment. In retrospect the climo at these locations shouldn't differ by all that much...but let's say BDL is running +6...well in a perfect world that other location should also be running near +6. 

what I'm trying to get at is you can't define these things by the reading of the thermometer but by the anomaly of the event. 

Based on the below map...whether you live deep inside the forest or are tanning on the tarmac since the start of the month its been toasty based on the anomaly of the pattern

 

It’s been a furnace everywhere for everyone in New England. And we haven’t touched the tip yet 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That's why he is in sales. 

Does he sell AC units?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Does he sell AC units?

Installs them himself.