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July pattern(s) and discussion


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29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Nah. I fired tru green couple yrs ago. I do it myself. Back by the road is very nice and lush cause it's shady there, but sun areas just get baked and the slopes are hard to retain the moisture.

A neighbor hire tru green a few years ago. The lawn never looked worse. 

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mcd1621.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1621
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the northern NJ...southern NY and much
   of New Enlgand

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311639Z - 311745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
   the next couple of hours and shift northeast across the Northeast
   U.S. These storms will pose a threat from strong, locally damaging
   winds, and a watch may be needed in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a surface cold front was
   apparent in 16z observations from the mid-Atlantic into New England
   where temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s were already being
   reported. Southwesterly low level flow is maintaining a very moist
   boundary layer, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
   The net result is a corridor of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region.
   An MCV was noted in radar loops, approaching Albany NY as of 1620z.
   Thunderstorms were beginning to intensify on the southern flank of
   this feature across Ulster and Orange counties in NY, and Sussex
   county in NJ. Given the aforementioned downstream environment,
   continued intensification of these storms is expected. While
   effective shear remains modest (around 25 kt) some localized
   enhancement aided by the MCV is possible, and organized line
   segments capable of mainly strong, locally damaging wind gusts is
   possible as storms track east/northeast through the afternoon. 

   Additional CU development was noted in visible satellite imagery
   across portions of CT into RI and MA where the strongest heating has
   occurred. A surface trough also was apparent in late surface
   analysis stretching from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity northeast into
   central ME. Convective initiation could eventually occur from the CU
   field, which appears to be co-located with the surface trough.
   Modest deep layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will temper more
   intense cells. However, high PW values and sufficient instability,
   combined with steepening low level lapse rates will support multiple
   bands of storms capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts. A
   watch may be needed in the next hour or so across portions of the
   Northeast.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/31/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be a few cells near S coast seabreeze, but the area from near BDL east to SE NH looks primed. Boundary evident SE of CON-ORE right now. 

Hope so...really don't need the severe. I just want some rain. We're clearing out a bit to the west though. Definitely a wind shift between CON and MHT though.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks for loading this graph. I distinctly remember the positive drift that peaked in early 2015 because all of us were amazed that BDL still broke their coldest month on record in Feb 2015 despite running hot. The error was corrected pretty quickly after that (as seen in the graph).

 

 

Hard to tell, but a lot of that error looks to occur during summer months?  Hard to see on the graph given the yearly output, but it looks like it’s the same time frame when it starts to drift.  

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4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Dumb question, but how come in hot/humid stretches like this ,the border areas like in the map below manage to get early morning storms, before the atmosphere heats up and becomes more unstable, while down here we have to wait typically until late day when temps/humidity are peaked?

 

bml_None_anim.gif

I’ve always just thought it’s because that’s where the prevailing jet is in summer...often located across S. Quebec so you get synoptic scale energy traversing through there regularly while down south you are waiting for a FROPA?

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