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July pattern(s) and discussion


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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

1 kayaker died this evening on Champlain, and 1 has been missing since the storms hit around 5pm.

Coast Guard plane from Cape Cod responding at request of the Burlington CG.  Sounds like they were searching via helicopter prior to sunset.  

I had seen in NWSChat that it was 5 kayakers that ended up in the water during the storm. 

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After our discussions of temperature drift at ASOS sites I was looking at BDL and I did something I think I shouldn't have and that was running the temperature analysis going back to 2004.  It took a really long time and I thought I broke it and was worried I overloaded the server but it did eventually return a graph.  

I would have expected drift both positive and negative at times but I thought it was interesting that it would just generally drift off in a positive direction before being corrected.  Sure there are some negative drifts but does anyone know why it is generally a positive error?

bdltemperror1000weeks.png

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9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Dumb question, but how come in hot/humid stretches like this ,the border areas like in the map below manage to get early morning storms, before the atmosphere heats up and becomes more unstable, while down here we have to wait typically until late day when temps/humidity are peaked?

 

bml_None_anim.gif

I’ve often wondered this as well 

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13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drama . I dont know but if I worked at a TV station in HFD I would use that as my daily weather records since it is an ASOS.  I mean at least Logan is in Boston 

All I'm going to say is the WSO was at Bradley, so that's where the records were tracked.

14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Dumb question, but how come in hot/humid stretches like this ,the border areas like in the map below manage to get early morning storms, before the atmosphere heats up and becomes more unstable, while down here we have to wait typically until late day when temps/humidity are peaked?

Well if we're hot and humid, the jet is most likely to our north. So in the absence of significant surface based instability to sustain convection it is tied to synoptics. And that would all be tied to the upper jet forcing. So it tends to be north as well.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All I'm going to say is the WSO was at Bradley, so that's where the records were tracked.

Well if we're hot and humid, the jet is most likely to our north. So in the absence of significant surface based instability to sustain convection it is tied to synoptics. And that would all be tied to the upper jet forcing. So it tends to be north as well.

I actually remember calling and talking to folks at Bradley WSO office when it was open and I was interning at a local TV station.

Is part the showers in that part of Maine due to elevation change?  The St Lawrence is sea level and isn't that part of Maine over 1-2K?  

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2 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I actually remember calling and talking to folks at Bradley WSO office when it was open and I was interning at a local TV station.

Is part the showers in that part of Maine due to elevation change?  The St Lawrence is sea level and isn't that part of Maine over 1-2K?  

Looks like it has a little twist to me, so either some type of vorticity max or remnant MCV.

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24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All I'm going to say is the WSO was at Bradley, so that's where the records were tracked.

Well if we're hot and humid, the jet is most likely to our north. So in the absence of significant surface based instability to sustain convection it is tied to synoptics. And that would all be tied to the upper jet forcing. So it tends to be north as well.

I haven't looked that closely at the synopsis of the day this morning ... but did glance at SPC's 'Slight" for the M/A and wondered how being further away from that factor, they would ( I guess? ) go with CAPE genesis... interesting - 

 

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16 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

I actually remember calling and talking to folks at Bradley WSO office when it was open and I was interning at a local TV station.

Is part the showers in that part of Maine due to elevation change?  The St Lawrence is sea level and isn't that part of Maine over 1-2K?  

Yeah, That line is along the St Lawrence and up against the higher elevations, But thats usually where the fronts originate, There in over QUE as well as the progress SE thru the coastal areas later in the day.

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1 hour ago, MetHerb said:

After our discussions of temperature drift at ASOS sites I was looking at BDL and I did something I think I shouldn't have and that was running the temperature analysis going back to 2004.  It took a really long time and I thought I broke it and was worried I overloaded the server but it did eventually return a graph.  

I would have expected drift both positive and negative at times but I thought it was interesting that it would just generally drift off in a positive direction before being corrected.  Sure there are some negative drifts but does anyone know why it is generally a positive error?

bdltemperror1000weeks.png

Thanks for loading this graph. I distinctly remember the positive drift that peaked in early 2015 because all of us were amazed that BDL still broke their coldest month on record in Feb 2015 despite running hot. The error was corrected pretty quickly after that (as seen in the graph).

 

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thanks for loading this graph. I distinctly remember the positive drift that peaked in early 2015 because all of us were amazed that BDL still broke their coldest month on record in Feb 2015 despite running hot. The error was corrected pretty quickly after that (as seen in the graph).

 

 

Interesting.  That February is still my coldest month.  It just edged out January 1994 which is followed appropriately by December 1989.  Every other one is a January month that you would expect.

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12 hours ago, dryslot said:

Better shot tomorrow, Not seeing anything tonight, All staying NW of our area.

Thought it would be the same in my hood, but a fairly noisy TS at 10:30 dumped 0.2" in about 5 minutes.  Still 1"+ below the July average; maybe today will reduce that deficit.

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Thought it would be the same in my hood, but a fairly noisy TS at 10:30 dumped 0.2" in about 5 minutes.  Still 1"+ below the July average; maybe today will reduce that deficit.

I had a small cell come thru here last night, Just a few drops and a couple rumbles as we were 7-10'd, Today is looking hit or miss though down here anyways, Pretty isolated it seems to be looking like.

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Pretty much all of June and July acorns have been falling from the Oaks...Non stop, and tons of them.  It's probably nothing, but I don't seem to remember so many falling so early. 

Time to plan for an early winter?

What do the dead sea scrolls say?

Have you ever looked where the sun don’t shine so to speak?  Interesting etchings up there...

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7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Pretty much all of June and July acorns have been falling from the Oaks...Non stop, and tons of them.  It's probably nothing, but I don't seem to remember so many falling so early. 

Time to plan for an early winter?

What do the dead sea scrolls say?

Every year they start in late June. Early and heavy. This year is no different. They’re a disaster 

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18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I had a small cell come thru here last night, Just a few drops and a couple rumbles as we were 7-10'd, Today is looking hit or miss though down here anyways, Pretty isolated it seems to be looking like.

yeah, not counting on much if anything. what's a guy gotta do to get a damn storm?? lawn in back is cooking away

capture1.jpg

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Have not seen one fall yet, but tree is loaded with them. 

Most fall in September here, a few early movers in late August.

Interesting.  That February is still my coldest month.  It just edged out January 1994 which is followed appropriately by December 1989.  Every other one is a January month that you would expect.

Unlike most NNE spots, coldest at Farmington co-op is Jan. 1982.  Top 10:
JAN 1982:  3.39
JAN 1994:  4.44
FEB 2015:  5.54
JAN 1981: 6.18
DEC 1989: 6.23  (4.30 below #2.  Next largest #1/#2 spread is 1.87 for FEB.)
JAN 1971: 6.68
JAN 1976: 7.03
FEB 1993: 7.41
JAN 1912: 7.65
JAN 2004: 8.61
Seven of ten in January (Feb 1962 is 11th) and all but one by the current observer, 1.3 miles north of mid-town while earlier obs were more in the built-up areas.

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