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July pattern(s) and discussion


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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t get tossing the warmest and claiming faulty equipment. The NWS isn’t going to let faulty equipment taint official readings. They’re real based on placement and surrounding environment. Let it go 

There are a few in the MA sub who do the same thing wrt DCA temps. "blame the sensor". It's absurd. Platinum RTDs don't randomly become erratic or read high.

 

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57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

NAM and HRRR popping some storms later

mm Hm... Yup...and, we have some towering pop-corn kernels already prior to noon suspended over the Worcester Hills up along the spine of the Monads...  Usually that's marker for conditional instability... Some of those towers (est) already look over 12K feet from eyeballin'

We've had a marginal vertical temperature profile all along but today we have ~ 5 deg of additional DP in the lower layers.  The NAM's been flirting with QPF for today and tomorrow actually...

Summer garden variety -

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30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There are a few in the MA sub who do the same thing wrt DCA temps. "blame the sensor". It's absurd. Platinum RTDs don't randomly become erratic or read high.

 

We've had a few incidents of poor maintenance around ASOS sites...like CON dumping rocks around the ASOS.

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July Mean Temps

Year  BDL   HFD   BDL-HFD
2001  69.7  70.8  -1.1
2002  75.1  75.5  -0.4
2003  73.2  73.3  -0.1
2004  72.0  73.0  -1.0
2005  74.5  75.1  -0.6
2006  76.5  76.7  -0.2
2007  73.4  73.9  -0.5
2008  75.5  75.8  -0.3
2009  70.2  71.9  -1.7
2010  77.1  78.8  -1.7
2011  76.0  77.6  -1.6
2012  76.2  76.7  -0.5
2013  77.9  78.6  -0.7
2014  74.5  74.0  +0.5 (HFD estimate)
2015  73.9  74.8  -0.9
2016  76.4  78.7  -2.3
2017  72.9  73.8  -0.9
2018  76.1  76.6  -0.5
2019  77.7  77.4  +0.3 (HFD estimate)

HFD had 2 missing days for this month so I plugged the BDL values in for an estimate. I did the same thing for the missing day in 2014.

Anyway, when Steve ran the numbers the much lower mean for HFD compared to BDL stood out to me. Now that I know HFD was missing data it looks closer than it originally did. I forget if 2014 was the previous year where we kept bitching about the BDL temps, but historically, BDL has almost always run cooler than HFD for July.

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

U40s at SLK, BML, and HIE this morning. Brutal airmass.

Looks at the treacherous dews advecting in from NY/PA/NJ. Thoughts and prayers.

Can tell a dry hot air mass when we have days of 52F min and 86F max (yesterday), followed by 53F this morning and now back into the 80s.  

I love the low-50s at night and mid-80s by day.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t get tossing the warmest and claiming faulty equipment. The NWS isn’t going to let faulty equipment taint official readings. They’re real based on placement and surrounding environment. Let it go 

I agree with you, time for you to start using their dews too.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Well I’m tossing any BDL or BOS number. I don’t remember what you said or what I said. I’ll go +1 to +2.

Kevin will never have an inaccurate summer month forecast if the month ends up above normal...just how it goes.  If it’s hot in summer he’ll be right and if cold and snowy in winter, chances are he called for that too.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like widespread mid to upper 80s tomorrow with the usual brick city and runway obs touching 90. I never knew this type of airmass falls into the heatwave category though, now I do.

A heatwave is 3 straight AOA 90.  Doesn’t have to be particularly memorable. 

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38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like widespread mid to upper 80s tomorrow with the usual brick city and runway obs touching 90. I never knew this type of airmass falls into the heatwave category though, now I do.

I mean that’s how most heatwaves go... BDL hits 90F for a few days, ORH gets to 82F or so, and most spots are upper 80s.

Its takes about +5 or +6 on the average high at BDL for a heatwave.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Looks like a good shot at a 3 day heatwave starting tomorrow for many spots.

Word.

I've been advertising this me self -

Interestingly, the GFSX MOS teeters with a big heat suggestion for Tuesday ... 93s and 94s... I think that's 95 or 96 accounting for climo dimming -

It's probably a fropa in there helping to better mix and transport a bit richer stripe out ahead.  It's like we get 1 to 2 clicks every day

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like widespread mid to upper 80s tomorrow with the usual brick city and runway obs touching 90. I never knew this type of airmass falls into the heatwave category though, now I do.

Just spent the afternoon up in your neck of the woods and was 3 miles into a hike with the 3 kids when that storm popped up out of nowhere...had a panicking 8 year old after the first crack of thunder, lol...

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