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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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5 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Black flies -> deer flies -> mosquitoes -> horse flies. The next blood sucking insect season (and yes, the seasons overlap too) has arrived and it is horse flies. Although not as aggressive as the deer flies, these mofos are huge and hurt if they manage to land on you for a bite. 

Despite the bugs, this weather is super comfortable. The dew points are everything in these parts. Anything under 60° F is good, less than 50° F outstanding.

 

 

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Death to everyone 

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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In any case ... the gloating's about done it appears

DPs 68 regionally by Sunday ... transitioning tomorrow, along with 90 T

its home grown heat, which doesn't appear to break turning the page into the mid range  

 

Yeah. Just did a super muggy 5 miler . Dew and temp 65.1/65. It’s thick getting getting thicker. 

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Hopefully we can track a few very strong and possibly destructive hurricanes soon. Otherwise, with no severe storms or even exciting cfp's in sight until next May, two more months of this very very long summer are going to be painstakingly boring

Tis the season for fantasy canes. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol it ain't muggy out here, have to call BS on this one, there is a chill in the air. 

Warm night in the valley with return flow. Mins of 68F at BDL and 69F at HFD. Didn't have to go far north to hit 60F at BAF though.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Hopefully we can track a few very strong and possibly destructive hurricanes soon. Otherwise, with no severe storms or even exciting cfp's in sight until next May, two more months of this very very long summer are going to be painstakingly boring

3rd shift work is tough.

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Today is the transition day -

Said transition is slow, and has been gaining momentum beneath awareness over the last three days.  Sensibly the discomfort crosses the threshold, however, to when it becomes more noticeable ... probably even onerously to some ... thru Wednesday about?  But, I suspect that end time is also mutable.  

To re-iterate. This is 'home grown,' ... which is just metaphoric for not transmitting hot mass from somewhere else.  The synopsis and evolution through this next mid week won't fluid mechanically allow 'big heat' air layers from slabbing off the western high country ... ( Sonoran release..), such as that which took place last week. 

There are short wave length ridge nodes anchored over the Great Basin ( ~ ) region, and another situated ~ 65W or so ... In between, there is a null space.  It's not really a trough..it's a default weakness in the total subtropical heights bridging those two areas.  It shows up on the deep layer tropospheric analysis as a shear axis... and the 500 mb winds bend S near 85W ... as a buttress preventing big heat promoting air layers.  But, astride that axis on the east side, ...the longer that total set up persists...we steadily still add therms to an air mass that is also slowly adding continental theta-e ... which feeds back positively into warming things up.

Daily abuse of solar insolation into this stagnant synoptic description is above climo ... helping to further warm. That looks to continue now that the slow moving/vestigial baroclinic leaf structures have slid off to the east. Basically... it's a sun storm.

I'd go 83 with biting insect whirs near the ear-lobes in rural countryside hiking trails... to 92's while zipping down sky-exposed highways ... to the typical 105's on those home/personal station tech's tied into that faux data source known as Wunderground's advocacy for calibration and accuracy in data dissemination ... Anyway, the nighttimes will be elevating -  

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ensembles show a pattern change to cooler 11-15.  We’ll see but as it stands now it may be 70s/low 80s around 8/10.   Should be interesting to see how accurate it is.

It’s been there for several days now, looks legit. Probably bounce back after then, that look usually doesn’t stay around long in the summer. 

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