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July pattern(s) and discussion


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Don't need to wait until next week to see 90.  

We could even bootleg a heat wave out of 89.6's, Friday afternoon onward... so yar, that may including some days next week.

This look ( to me ) is really a Sirius typology...  The 'dog star,' which rises and set with the sun from July through the end of August.  Hence the "dog days of summer". That saying is more so applied to a light wind and stagnantly warm humid air mass ... ..basically, boring.   

With 582 to 588 dm heights supporting diurnal thickness expansion .. but sans much EML expulsion from out west, together with diurnal/convectively induced dents and faux S/W in the models .... doesn't inspire much in the way of bona fide heat, but would support some.  So heh..89 to 91's..

The GFS ensemble mean is back to buckin' for an early autumn though.  I gotta figure we're going to have to field this from that model family until it really "can" happen...circa early September. But... the NAO is fallen out there so...maybe all this is a prelude to unlikely pattern .. ha

  

 

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2 hours ago, mreaves said:

It was cool but expensive.  For myself, my wife and our 15 year old son it was $216 round trip.  It is one of those things that I'll do once but that's about it.  I've been up the auto road before so being able to see the other side of the mountain was nice.  I am not an avid hiker so unless I make a life change, I probably won't hike up it and get that experience.

Cool, thanks. That’s what I figured, one time trip. I hiked up once but had a really bad fall on the way down (long story, lots of broken stuff). I had to hike back up a ways and then took the bus down :)

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52 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Anyways the past 20+ years or so 90's seem to become much more common in the summer...not only more common but persisting for longer stretches...maybe this threshold will have to be bumped up a bit.

I don't know if that is the case.  It looks pretty much status quo to my eye.

 

network_CT_ASOS__zstation_BDL__var_tmpf__dir_aoa__thres_90__month_all__year_2019__dpi_100.png

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Another stunning day on tap... cool night with a low of 52F and yet another dry afternoon of 70s coming up.  

+1.3 for July, that recent high heat was enough to ensure the month finishes a little above normal.  

We had +1 to +2 from north to south for the month. On target up there and if you factor in fraud readings at the runways for the south, we’re close to +2. 

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45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We had +1 to +2 from north to south for the month. On target up there and if you factor in fraud readings at the runways for the south, we’re close to +2. 

You’ll verify your +1 to +2 up here at the NNE runways.  1V4 is +0.7 but should come up to 1 or higher by month’s end.

I’m not sure why the SNE ones are fraud runway readings though.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

You’ll verify your +1 to +2 up here at the NNE runways.  1V4 is +0.7 but should come up to 1 or higher by month’s end.

I’m not sure why the SNE ones are fraud runway readings though.

BOS +5.6
BDL +4.8
MHT +4.8
PWM +4.1
BDR +4.1
ORH +3.4
PVD +3.2
AUG +3.0

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks AN but tolerable. The big ridge is out west, but we can't get any reinforcing shots of cP air in here either. Could be a dry stretch?

Might already have begun here.  Getting all of 0.07" Sun-Tues while nearly everyone else had 10, 20, 30 times that much, plus a forecast with no precip before next Tuesday's 40% chance . . .  Not good signs.  Water table is fine, upper part of soil is getting crispy.

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2 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

This chart shows the number of 90° days since 1949.

chart.jpeg

Thanks!

That certainly disproves my thoughts. Actually even looks like some cycles mixed in there.

But I can see why I had my thoughts...which of course were not derived from scientific data, but moreso my relocation...the 1990's to about 2000 seemed to be a bit of a "lull" so-to-speak 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Is there a way on that site to break it down into the # of 90 days per year? that would be cool to see

For the local long-term co-op, on the 1966-on obs site north of town, the average is 3.2 days/year.  In the 73 prior years with obs site moving 4-5 times but always in-town, the average was 8.6.  This year will need to hit the mark at least 7 times to tie/pass the 1990s at 30 for lowest decade - was 23 such days thru last summer.  Not sure if Farmington's reached 90 this year, though Saturday might have done it.  Nothing in the coming week looks to add any more and recent AUG/SEP haven't done it often.  In 2002 Farmington reached 90 ten times in those 2 months (AUG 7, SEP 3), but in the subsequent 16 years thru 2018 the total is also 10, four coming in the 2010 month-bridging heat wave. 

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45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BOS +5.6
BDL +4.8
MHT +4.8
PWM +4.1
BDR +4.1
ORH +3.4
PVD +3.2
AUG +3.0

Yeah that’s fairly impressive for summer months when departures seem to run closer to normal than in winter.  I feel like in summer +3 is harder to do than +3 in January....seems to be less variance in summer. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You’ll verify your +1 to +2 up here at the NNE runways.  1V4 is +0.7 but should come up to 1 or higher by month’s end.

I’m not sure why the SNE ones are fraud runway readings though.

Less ability to radiate leading to high mins. The high maxes have not been all that AN. 

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Thanks!

That certainly disproves my thoughts. Actually even looks like some cycles mixed in there.

But I can see why I had my thoughts...which of course were not derived from scientific data, but moreso my relocation...the 1990's to about 2000 seemed to be a bit of a "lull" so-to-speak 

I noticed the cycles too but wanted you to see the data before I commented.  It's too bad that the data doesn't go back to the 30s because I think there were some hot years in there as well.  I did note that there are only two years with 30+ days of 90° of higher from 1949-2000 and there have been 4 since then while the balance of years does show a slight increase in days.  Time will tell if that trend continues or if its a "cycle" like you can see in prior periods.

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7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Less ability to radiate leading to high mins. The high maxes have not been all that AN. 

That’s not what I’m seeing at BDL... 

NOWdata tells me the monthly normal at BDL is 84.4/62.6. 

Actual so far is 90.2/66.5. 

So maxes are +5.8 and mins are +3.9.

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