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July pattern(s) and discussion


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Not taking into account any type of cloud cover or convective potential...BDL and some other stations would be able to tack on some more 90 days beginning later this weekend moving into next week.

It's not an anomalous pattern but 850 temperatures will be above-average next week so the majority will see temperatures above-average...regardless if whether you live 1500' up, 300' up, or are surrounded by forest. 

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48 minutes ago, mostman said:

How is the cog? I’m thinking of taking my kids on that when we come up next year. 

It was cool but expensive.  For myself, my wife and our 15 year old son it was $216 round trip.  It is one of those things that I'll do once but that's about it.  I've been up the auto road before so being able to see the other side of the mountain was nice.  I am not an avid hiker so unless I make a life change, I probably won't hike up it and get that experience.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Not taking into account any type of cloud cover or convective potential...BDL and some other stations would be able to tack on some more 90 days beginning later this weekend moving into next week.

It's not an anomalous pattern but 850 temperatures will be above-average next week so the majority will see temperatures above-average...regardless if whether you live 1500' up, 300' up, or are surrounded by forest. 

 

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks AN but tolerable. The big ridge is out west, but we can't get any reinforcing shots of cP air in here either. Could be a dry stretch?

Looking at the ensembles shows AN temps but nothing extreme.  No big ridge or anything like the past weekend, regardless of what anyone is trying to sell.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Could be some decent daily ranges for the rad sites. Pickles just loves 60 to 90.

That actually would be a bit exciting to see...not very often we see jumps of like 30F around here. Could be some cases where we drop like 15F right after sunset and rise like 15F in the few hours after sunrise 

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Just now, MetHerb said:

 

Looking at the ensembles shows AN temps but nothing extreme.  No big ridge or anything like the past weekend, regardless of what anyone is trying to sell.

well too be fair Kevin never said anything about this being extreme or crazy...just pointing out we could legit see a heat wave and that is very reasonable to think for some of the climo stations. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

well too be fair Kevin never said anything about this being extreme or crazy...just pointing out we could legit see a heat wave and that is very reasonable to think for some of the climo stations. 

i think the definition of heatwave needs to be changed.. 90/91 is not a heatwave I guess for me..   

 

also what does Torch mean?

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12 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

i think the definition of heatwave needs to be changed.. 90/91 is not a heatwave I guess for me..   

 

also what does Torch mean?

Well technically from NWS definition it's 3-consecutive days of 90+ at any of the climo stations :D 

But...to your point, eventually down the road this may have to be adjusted. I am going to wager that BDL probably has the highest peak climo high which is around 85 with the number of average 90F days around 18 I think it is? So using 90 as the minimum I guess makes a ton of sense. 

Anyways the past 20+ years or so 90's seem to become much more common in the summer...not only more common but persisting for longer stretches...maybe this threshold will have to be bumped up a bit.

Anyways I would be curious to know what lead to 90 being the defining term for a heat wave...and for 3-consecutive days. I'm sure it has to do with climo and probably some sort of statistical deviation or something...so maybe this needs to be adjusted based on the recent warming trend 

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