Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 Yeah ..there's more interesting aspects going on out ( or "up" ) there actually .. The hi res vis imagery ...really casts the allusion that the region is still bathed in warm sector S of the Pike and perhaps even lifting N... Meanwhile, there is a region of clearing now in these areas...at least partial sun. The fropa momentum from overnight is feeble. The calm nature of the wind around the region this morning suggests so. The air mass behind the boundary over said region is not appreciably deep... I am wondering if the sun doesn't mix out this edge work and sort of flop the region back into a SW/ quasi barotropic air mass again. There is a S/W over the Lakes and that's helping to slow the front and may add to this thinking.. This was suggested by the Euro actually a couple days ago. I remember mentioning this sort of idea in Wiz's thread... that Monday was getting interesting. Boo-ya for the Euro! what's new... We'll see... But, if the air mass does partially mix backward we could be left with more conditional instability ... imagining some vestigial SR helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: big rains incoming.. Yep, interesting waves along the front with high PWATS. Gully whomping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 What in the Sam Hell, crop circles in CCtCCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ..there's more interesting aspects going on out ( or "up" ) there actually .. The hi res vis imagery ...really casts the allusion that the region is still bathed in warm sector S of the Pike and perhaps even lifting N... Meanwhile, there is a region of clearing now in these areas...at least partial sun. The fropa momentum from overnight is feeble. The calm nature of the wind around the region this morning suggests so. The air mass behind the boundary over said region is not appreciably deep... I am wondering if the sun doesn't mix out this edge work and sort of flop the region back into a SW/ quasi barotropic air mass again. There is a S/W over the Lakes and that's helping to slow the front and may add to this thinking.. This was suggested by the Euro actually a couple days ago. I remember mentioning this sort of idea in Wiz's thread... that Monday was getting interesting. Boo-ya for the Euro! what's new... We'll see... But, if the air mass does partially mix backward we could be left with more conditional instability ... imagining some vestigial SR helicity. I'm actually thinking sort of opposite here. I'm not sure there is much room to drive the warm front any further north than it's current position, although maybe there could be a diurnally driven northward boost. I was looking/hoping for maybe some theta-e ridging or an increase in theta-e advection but this looks minimal thus far. Where the waves seem to develop also lead me to think a northward push will be difficult. 0-1km winds too are quite weak...which shouldn't completely impact frontal progression but I think the ideas of a weak tornado today are down the tube...especially looking at LCL's...they are quite high...even south of the warm front. I haven't looked into this detail outside of soundings but I'm guessing there is a layer of dry air that is trapped somewhere in the llvls (how deep...don't know without looking further) and while sure this could poke some weenie sun rays through but it's hurting moisture/instability/LCL heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What in the Sam Hell, crop circles in CCtCCT Who needs to go to Area 51...come to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 56 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 10 days to go today wont help Tuesday gonna hurt a lot Wednesday- Fri will be below that 78.0 max ave Sunday-Wed look above that I’d say 25% Today’s high is 86 already thanks to midnight so it won’t hurt. Tomorrow the big negative opportunity exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Everyone everywhere high on today’s severe threat except Wizzy. Reminds me of every winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Didn’t some say the other day high records were destroying low records this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Today’s high is 86 already thanks to midnight so it won’t hurt. Tomorrow the big negative opportunity exists * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone everywhere high on today’s severe threat except Wizzy. Reminds me of every winter storm Who is high on today's severe threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Who is high on today's severe threat? Everyone here, tv and Mets on social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Torch of a month now. +4.8F now. Last 2 days pulled off a +14.4 and a +14.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s easy for those who live in apartments owning nothing but clothes, a clock radio, and some Hustler magazines from the 90’s.... to get all excited for severe. But Dr Dews is in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Didn’t some say the other day high records were destroying low records this year? What's the POR of these stations breaking mins? If a station started in the 1950s or 60s there will be more mins broken. (a site like JFK) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Who is high on today's severe threat? 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone here, tv and Mets on social media 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone here, tv and Mets on social media I think the only potential is right along the CT coast and it would be in the form of strong wind gusts if such a line develops like some of the CAMS indicate...however, it may be overdone. Take the NAM NEST...point-and-click soundings have dewpoints >75 along the CT shore this evening. Doesn't really seem like that is plausible unless we get insane dewpoint pooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's the POR of these stations breaking mins? If a station started in the 1950s or 60s there will be more mins broken. (a site like JFK) Funny this question never came up before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Funny this question never came up before.... * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Funny this question never came up before.... Well the PAC NW seem to have little trouble breaking records, but a lot of their stations have 30-70yr histories. Looks like all of the May-July ones are out there. The S/SE had a lot around April Fool's with that cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Well the PAC NW seem to have little trouble breaking records, but a lot of their stations have 30-70yr histories. Looks like all of the May-July ones are out there. The S/SE had a lot around April Fool's with that cold shot. No mention of that when heat records were getting blown away, it’s all relative to the initial statement. In any case after years of heat records getting raked this year flipped the script here in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Eric Fischer blowing up Twitter with tales of hottest ever in Boston etc etc. congrats to those baggage handlers who work outside on the Tarmac right on the harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Eric Fischer blowing up Twitter with tales of hottest ever in Boston etc etc. congrats to those baggage handlers who work outside on the Tarmac right on the harbor. It's well known the Fisher is a fan of the summer and the heat, not so much a fan of winter weather. I think in some instances it hurts his ability to forecast during the winter. Although he is not alone. I think most on air Boston mets prefer forecasting during the summer as oppose to the winter. I miss the days of Mark Rosenthal being all excited when a winter storm was about to hit. Fisher does do a great job of posting on Twitter and he does have a good sense of humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No mention of that when heat records were getting blown away, it’s all relative to the initial statement. In any case after years of heat records getting raked this year flipped the script here in the US No one said we can’t get record lows. Congrats on a 6 month stretch with comparable record lows and highs. You love to say we live here though. Got the 2019 numbers for the Northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Eric Fischer blowing up Twitter with tales of hottest ever in Boston etc etc. congrats to those baggage handlers who work outside on the Tarmac right on the harbor. Welp, it was pretty hot here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: It's well known the Fisher is a fan of the summer and the heat, not so much a fan of winter weather. I think in some instances it hurts his ability to forecast during the winter. Although he is not alone. I think most on air Boston mets prefer forecasting during the summer as oppose to the winter. I miss the days of Mark Rosenthal being all excited when a winter storm was about to hit. Fisher does do a great job of posting on Twitter and he does have a good sense of humor. I've never felt negative about Fisher either way. Think he's been awesome. Don't see his negativity during winter. Maybe we are just not seeing it the same way. Plus he likes sports, and beers, and weather. He's our kind of guy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Fisher is a cool dude - through a mutual friend I got to meet and watch him do the weather segment on set couple years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 18 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: It's well known the Fisher is a fan of the summer and the heat, not so much a fan of winter weather. I think in some instances it hurts his ability to forecast during the winter. Although he is not alone. I think most on air Boston mets prefer forecasting during the summer as oppose to the winter. I miss the days of Mark Rosenthal being all excited when a winter storm was about to hit. Fisher does do a great job of posting on Twitter and he does have a good sense of humor. I would espouse that entire era of on-camera Mets seemed more winter-centric. I know Harvey Leonard first hand is top heavy on winter storms and snow in particular, though folks probably would not know that as he's remarkably polished in his impartiality with the public. You're right about Mark "Frozenballs" ... "Froze-then-thawed" ..."Frozen Skull" ...I heard a lot of those. Dick Albert rest his soul ...I think he was partial to convection but did really like blizzards fondly. And, who could forget Bruce Schwoegler ... man, that dude was basically like a mash up between Kevin and an actual Meteorology degree. The man would like ... engineer storm threats out of meaningless subtropical cirrus streaks running off the Carolina coast ... I remember this once... "I don't think the models are picking this up..." 'Course to be fair, that was back in the mid '80's when models really were capable of missing a whole actual tropospheric object like an STJ ...maybe. There was one system in the early 1990s where he was honkin' 40 to 60 mph winds and 24" of snow and we got 1-3" and cobalt blue sunny day the next day and that seemed to start blinking his retirement light. Yeah...the 1976 to 2000 years were the pinnacle on-camera snow Met decades... I think as recently as 2006 I saw something I didn't think I'd ever witness ... A Boston area, major network affiliate on-camera Meteorologist with a warm bias. Channel 7. Steve Bouchard I think was his name... Last I heard Mark ended up somewhere up around Portland Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Fisher is a cool dude - through a mutual friend I got to meet and watch him do the weather segment on set couple years ago He does come across as a good guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I would espouse that entire era of on-camera Mets seemed more winter-centric. I know Harvey Leonard first hand is top heavy on winter storms and snow in particular, though folks probably would not know that as he's remarkably polished in his impartiality with the public. You're right about Mark "Frozenballs" ... "Froze-then-thawed" ..."Frozen Skull" ...I heard a lot of those. Dick Albert rest his soul ...I think he was partial to convection but did really like blizzards fondly. And, who could forget Bruce Schwoegler ... man, that dude was basically like a mash up between Kevin and an actual Meteorology degree. The man would like ... engineer storm threats out of meaningless subtropical cirrus streaks running off the Carolina coast ... I remember this once... "I don't think the models are picking this up..." 'Course to be fair, that was back in the mid '80's when models really were capable of missing a whole actual tropospheric object like an STJ ...maybe. There was one system in the early 1990s where he was honkin' 40 to 60 mph winds and 24" of snow and we got 1-3" and cobalt blue sunny day the next day and that seemed to start blinking his retirement light. Yeah...the 1976 to 2000 years were the pinnacle on-camera snow Met decades... I think as recently as 2006 I saw something I didn't think I'd ever witness ... A Boston area, major network affiliate on-camera Meteorologist with a warm bias. Channel 7. Steve Bouchard I think was his name... Last I heard Mark ended up somewhere up around Portland Maine. I cannot stand channel 7/some mets who have went to 10 in terms of weather. Not going to single out individuals, but lets just say I am not a fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 shallow CU field in N NJ is moving NNW ...that's not indicative of being on the polarward side of a deep new fresh summer polar air mass... No, this front came in shallow and is attempting to bow back ... Whether it does or not, as far N as the Mass Pike ...I do think the sun can assist that... But, there's patch work of clouds so it needs work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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