dendrite Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR crushes SNE today with storms, but everything else is fairly meh. Meh is probably correct Dry begets dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Nah. I fired tru green couple yrs ago. I do it myself. Back by the road is very nice and lush cause it's shady there, but sun areas just get baked and the slopes are hard to retain the moisture. A neighbor hire tru green a few years ago. The lawn never looked worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Dry begets dry? Think so yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 SNE should see some decent storms today. A solid line would be nice to break this very dry spell. Hopefully a solid, heavy and exciting damage swath for our friends and neighbors just E of Danbury CT, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: OWD with another peculiar headstart. I'm assuming that is the highest observed temp so far across MA. Seems suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every year they start in late June. Early and heavy. This year is no different. They’re a Seems like they were falling earlier this year, but yeah, out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Just now, Cold Miser said: Seems like they were falling earlier this year, but yeah, out of control. They always start falling in CT first it seems and then other places in Mass start in Aug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'm assuming that is the highest observed temp so far across MA. Seems suspect. Yeah...the since midnight highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah...the since midnight highs. I took a look at some reporting stations in the area and I could only find 1 other station with a similar temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 * 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Definitely not as oppessive as yesterday was. Low 90s still but dews are dropping into the mid 60s as opposed to the low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Most of eastern NE back into a slight risk for today so there’s that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 MCD issued... 60% chance of a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Most of SNE back into a slight risk for today so there’s that I don't like that MCV, not one bit. I'd watch that convection associated with it. Central MA into SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the northern NJ...southern NY and much of New Enlgand Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 311639Z - 311745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the next couple of hours and shift northeast across the Northeast U.S. These storms will pose a threat from strong, locally damaging winds, and a watch may be needed in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a surface cold front was apparent in 16z observations from the mid-Atlantic into New England where temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s were already being reported. Southwesterly low level flow is maintaining a very moist boundary layer, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The net result is a corridor of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region. An MCV was noted in radar loops, approaching Albany NY as of 1620z. Thunderstorms were beginning to intensify on the southern flank of this feature across Ulster and Orange counties in NY, and Sussex county in NJ. Given the aforementioned downstream environment, continued intensification of these storms is expected. While effective shear remains modest (around 25 kt) some localized enhancement aided by the MCV is possible, and organized line segments capable of mainly strong, locally damaging wind gusts is possible as storms track east/northeast through the afternoon. Additional CU development was noted in visible satellite imagery across portions of CT into RI and MA where the strongest heating has occurred. A surface trough also was apparent in late surface analysis stretching from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity northeast into central ME. Convective initiation could eventually occur from the CU field, which appears to be co-located with the surface trough. Modest deep layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will temper more intense cells. However, high PW values and sufficient instability, combined with steepening low level lapse rates will support multiple bands of storms capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts. A watch may be needed in the next hour or so across portions of the Northeast. ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Could be a fun afternoon here. I just want some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 BOS 93/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Might be a few cells near S coast seabreeze, but the area from near BDL east to SE NH looks primed. Boundary evident SE of CON-ORE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 33 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Definitely not as oppessive as yesterday was. Low 90s still but dews are dropping into the mid 60s as opposed to the low 70s. Amazing the difference Lower dew points can make. Almost feels comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 I dunno, 92/69 is bad. Tough for me to find a reason to find it bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might be a few cells near S coast seabreeze, but the area from near BDL east to SE NH looks primed. Boundary evident SE of CON-ORE right now. Hope so...really don't need the severe. I just want some rain. We're clearing out a bit to the west though. Definitely a wind shift between CON and MHT though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Thanks for loading this graph. I distinctly remember the positive drift that peaked in early 2015 because all of us were amazed that BDL still broke their coldest month on record in Feb 2015 despite running hot. The error was corrected pretty quickly after that (as seen in the graph). Hard to tell, but a lot of that error looks to occur during summer months? Hard to see on the graph given the yearly output, but it looks like it’s the same time frame when it starts to drift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 4 hours ago, Lava Rock said: Dumb question, but how come in hot/humid stretches like this ,the border areas like in the map below manage to get early morning storms, before the atmosphere heats up and becomes more unstable, while down here we have to wait typically until late day when temps/humidity are peaked? I’ve always just thought it’s because that’s where the prevailing jet is in summer...often located across S. Quebec so you get synoptic scale energy traversing through there regularly while down south you are waiting for a FROPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hope so...really don't need the severe. I just want some rain. We're clearing out a bit to the west though. Definitely a wind shift between CON and MHT though. What happens when lightning strikes a yellow jacket nest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I dunno, 92/69 is bad. Tough for me to find a reason to find it bearable. It was 91/66 when I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Definitely not as oppessive as yesterday was. Low 90s still but dews are dropping into the mid 60s as opposed to the low 70s.Still 84/75 at Chatham with other temps near 90 in the area. Still drenched from 17 mile bike ride. I hate the dews!!! Sent from my LG-M322 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Buzz!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 44 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Most of eastern NE back into a slight risk for today so there’s that How many strong tornadoes for Harwich? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Nice cluster of storms near Sprinfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What happens when lightning strikes a yellow jacket nest? It probably looks like this in my coop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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