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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:13 PM, Bostonseminole said:

just saw this tweet from the TWC.. if this is true more people need to be neutered.

22s

 

23 children have died this year after being left in a hot car. Please be aware of the risks and always remember to check your backseat.

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People are preoccupied with their phones. And that leads to many people being unable to focus on what they are doing or should be doing.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

1920s weren't nearly as dry as the 1930s? The '30s were pretty exceptional on both extremes...it had exceptionally cold temps and also exceptionally hot temps. The CONUS acted closer to a desert than at any other point.

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I alwys like interacting with you. You are not an alarmist,  dont get personal and provide great facts. I have had this theory for years that the climate around here has shifted by 3 to 4 weeks. Cooler Junes warmer Septembers,  warmer November colder March. Seems to be the new normal. As far as cold fronts of yore, the July to August period has indeed had higher minimums. But last weeks 80 over 50s was a great airmass change. Hopefully we can push the stank out again coming up. LR looks delicious 

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:16 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Its is sick, and don't get me started on the number of dog deaths.This week a man in NYC , I feel horribly for him but, left his two 1 year old twins in the car all day while he worked, he forgot to drop them off at daycare

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:17 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

People are preoccupied with their phones. And that leads to many people being unable to focus on what they are doing or should be doing.

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With all the technology in cars now you would think they can have something that alerts folks, even using a weight sensor like some cars have now for seatbelts.. if over a certain weight it goes off.. or the car alarms you.. tell you if you've checked yoru backseat when it senses the temperature is above a threshold.. should be doable.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:22 PM, Bostonseminole said:

 

With all the technology in cars now you would think they can have something that alerts folks, even using a weight sensor like some cars have now for seatbelts.. if over a certain weight it goes off.. or the car alarms you.. tell you if you've checked yoru backseat when it senses the temperature is above a threshold.. should be doable.

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As I tell my kids,slow down, think, stay aware.  It can wait,  whether it's work, a date or anything else. 

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:02 PM, ORH_wxman said:

1930s were dry....dust bowl era....epic drought in middle of country so not really conductive to high dew airmasses.

 

There's probably another anthropogenic trend in dewpoints that is unrelated to GHG warming....midwest/plains agriculture. We have far more corn acreage now than we did in the middle 20th century and it's a lot more productive and efficient. This will make airmases coming out of the plains more moist than previous years.

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The 1930s were the decade of extremes.  Looking at all time state records for hottest/coldest days and wettest/driest years, that decade dominates 3 of the 4.  (Note:  latest update I've found is 2011, so there may have been changes.)

Hottest day:  '30s - 24 (next highest decade has 5)
Coldest day:  '30s - 10 (Next is 6)
Wettest year: '30s - 2  WA and ID ('50s and '90s lead with 10.)
Driest year:   '30s - 19 ('50s and '60s 11 each, with 6 in '65: SNE + PA,NJ,DE) 

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:16 PM, dendrite said:

2000 and 2001 were cool, but we haven't pulled 30s at CON since the late 70s...and we had similar instrumentation until ASOS took over in the early to mid 90s.

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CON didn't pull 30s in the 1980s either despite several big "low dew" years on the graph comparable to the 1970s. I wonder if subtle development in the area made them unable to radiate like they could even 10 years earlier. Rad sites are annoyingly fickle which is why a well-mixed site like ORH popped out to me. I also noticed CON had zero hours of sub-40 dews in 1993 and 1994 while ORH had logged a lot of hours (esp 1994) before going basically silent in 1995-onward.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:22 PM, Bostonseminole said:

 

With all the technology in cars now you would think they can have something that alerts folks, even using a weight sensor like some cars have now for seatbelts.. if over a certain weight it goes off.. or the car alarms you.. tell you if you've checked yoru backseat when it senses the temperature is above a threshold.. should be doable.

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Some  vehicles already have a similar type system.  But what if the system fails to operate ???....lawsuit city. 

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:09 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I think we had this discussion but high humidity sucks especially in the summer when capped. Bad AQ is a by product , can't imagine living in a city on these days

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To me the best days are when the heat gets high enough to “burn through” the cap and then it’s hot and clear as a bell.  Obviously we need good mixing for that and this particular air is stagnant.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:28 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Our stupid phones can alert us of ‘kids in car’. It’s really sad, some people shouldn’t be allowed to parent. 

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Its is as heartbreaking as it gets. The parents have to live with that mistake.  Brutal. Do you remember the guy who left his infant on top of his vehicle on the Mass Pike, luckily she didn't fall off and people stopped him.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:31 PM, weathafella said:

To me the best days are when the heat gets high enough to “burn through” the cap and then it’s hot and clear as a bell.  Obviously we need good mixing for that and this particular air is stagnant.

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Tropical blues high humidity days with a breeze are definitely tolerable.  Beach is where its at today, nice SW sea breeze 

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:32 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've coached for 40+ years and there are some parents who never should have had kids. And it's worse today than it ever has been. 

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What do you coach? I attend a lot of grandkids games and man some parents. I actually chastised my own daughter for getting loudly upset at the refs at a 14U game. She apologized to the ref after the game and promised me she would never be loud again. Its ok to say quietly man he sucks but what I see is lack of control. Sad

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:17 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

People are preoccupied with their phones. And that leads to many people being unable to focus on what they are doing or should be doing.

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NPR had a story on this the other day discussing techniques to prevent this and phone usage was not one of the reason why this happens.  In almost every case there is a change in routine.  Combine that with parents that are over tired and this is what happens.  I'm sure none of us have ever forgotten to do something when our routine changes.  ;)

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

What do you coach? I attend a lot of grandkids games and man some parents. I actually chastised my own daughter for getting loudly upset at the refs at a 14U game. She apologized to the ref after the game and promised me she would never be loud again. Its ok to say quietly man he sucks but what I see is lack of control. Sad

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I've coached baseball/softball but my main interest is in coaching basketball.  Every parent today thinks their kid his headed to a D1 school on a full scholarship.  Every parent thinks their kid should be the star. Many parents today would settle for an 0-20 season if it meant their kid played. AAU basketball has really hurt the development of players at all levels. AAU coaches will tell a parent/player exactly what they want to hear in order to keep the money flowing in. And the coaching at the AAU level is substandard for the most part. 

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

CON didn't pull 30s in the 1980s either despite several big "low dew" years on the graph comparable to the 1970s. I wonder if subtle development in the area made them unable to radiate like they could even 10 years earlier. Rad sites are annoyingly fickle which is why a well-mixed site like ORH popped out to me. I also noticed CON had zero hours of sub-40 dews in 1993 and 1994 while ORH had logged a lot of hours (esp 1994) before going basically silent in 1995-onward.

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Gotta check some of those actual dew obs to make sure it wasn't a bunch of faulty obs. I remember strange dews obs coming up in the summer from (I believe) MHT on TWC that were 32F. I assume it was just an error in the ob coding where bad or missing dew obs got submitted as 0C.

But CON radiated like mad even into the 80s and 90s. I don't believe the development issue. I just think the 60s and 70s had more potent cP airmass potential in the warm season.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:02 PM, ORH_wxman said:

1930s were dry....dust bowl era....epic drought in middle of country so not really conductive to high dew airmasses.

 

There's probably another anthropogenic trend in dewpoints that is unrelated to GHG warming....midwest/plains agriculture. We have far more corn acreage now than we did in the middle 20th century and it's a lot more productive and efficient. This will make airmases coming out of the plains more moist than previous years.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:
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I also wonder what impact all the wind and solar farms have.  You have wind farms with wind mills that churn the air over a large area.  That has to have an impact on the ability to radiate in those areas.  Combine that with large solar farms which are essentially large black surfaces reflecting heat back into the atmosphere.  There has to be some impact from that activity.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:09 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I think we had this discussion but high humidity sucks especially in the summer when capped. Bad AQ is a by product , can't imagine living in a city on these days

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From over 45 years of inner city UHI living experience, it’s sorta like a steam bath without the benefits. As always ......

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:48 PM, dendrite said:

Gotta check some of those actual dew obs to make sure it wasn't a bunch of faulty obs. I remember strange dews obs coming up in the summer from (I believe) MHT on TWC that were 32F. I assume it was just an error in the ob coding where bad or missing dew obs got submitted as 0C.

But CON radiated like mad even into the 80s and 90s. I don't believe the development issue. I just think the 60s and 70s had more potent cP airmass potential in the warm season.

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Maybe...but both can still be true. It's not a either/or with these things.

The break in ORH graph just looks really really weird and extremely unlikely to be explaned by a gradual warming trend. Maybe ORH had different pre-ASOS instrumentation than CON? Not sure how to look that up...but that could be another explanation.

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  On 7/30/2019 at 2:44 PM, MetHerb said:

NPR had a story on this the other day discussing techniques to prevent this and phone usage was not one of the reason why this happens.  In almost every case there is a change in routine.  Combine that with parents that are over tired and this is what happens.  I'm sure none of us have ever forgotten to do something when our routine changes.  ;)

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Like forgetting a kid or dog is in the car in the summer,  geezus I hope no one here is that preoccupied,over tired or upset their routine changed. Sad if true

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  On 7/30/2019 at 3:02 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe...but both can still be true. It's not a either/or with these things.

The break in ORH graph just looks really really weird and extremely unlikely to be explaned by a gradual warming trend. Maybe ORH had different pre-ASOS instrumentation than CON? Not sure how to look that up...but that could be another explanation.

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CON was still dropping 20F in 2hrs in the 90s and 2000s on rad nights. I'll agree that the climo record is littered with site changes and changes in instrumentation that make it difficult to piece meaningful analysis together. Even MWN has had some changes, but they're probably the most consistent across the board going back to the 1930s.

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