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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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The best argument I can make for it is it's in a region of plenty of 0-3 km shear (favorable for QLCS mesovortices) and it's near the warm front. Otherwise, I feel pretty meh about that one for an actual tornado.

Now QLCS mesovortices don't always produce tornadoes, but they can enhance downdrafts (a la Bob's image). I would probably have stuck to the SVR with "tornado possible" tag.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

The best argument I can make for it is it's in a region of plenty of 0-3 km shear (favorable for QLCS mesovortices) and it's near the warm front. Otherwise, I feel pretty meh about that one for an actual tornado.

Now QLCS mesovortices don't always produce tornadoes, but they can enhance downdrafts (a la Bob's image). I would probably have stuck to the SVR with "tornado possible" tag.

Yeah, that’s a nasty downdraft but I can see why they pulled the tornado trigger.  The rotation enchanted/tightened up as that trailing squall line caught up to the leading one on the southern edge of it.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, that’s a nasty downdraft but I can see why they pulled the tornado trigger.  The rotation enchanted/tightened up as that trailing squall line caught up to the leading one on the southern edge of it.

Enchanted rotation?  I learn something new every day lol

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The best argument I can make for it is it's in a region of plenty of 0-3 km shear (favorable for QLCS mesovortices) and it's near the warm front. Otherwise, I feel pretty meh about that one for an actual tornado.

Now QLCS mesovortices don't always produce tornadoes, but they can enhance downdrafts (a la Bob's image). I would probably have stuck to the SVR with "tornado possible" tag.

I was going to post regarding qcls earlier, but with the surface low and "less" frontal aspect there seemed to be less risk. Non zero obviously. I am no svr expert lol

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