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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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7 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I cannot stand channel 7/some mets who have went to 10 in terms of weather. Not going to single out individuals, but lets just say I am not a fan.

Yeah I dunno - I wouldn't bother to impugn them like just another member of the vitriolic hoi -polloi...  and remove any doubt  my station in society is just another douchy honk -

I'm not sure he's even a "bad" Met to be honest.  I never bothered to verify his snow totals/forecasts and/or temp outlooks.  It's just something I noticed; he was consummately some amount warmer in temps, and lower in snow, relative to almost every situation I ever happened to see him in the years he worked WHDH.  That sounds like I'm impugning him?  But he may have been right - I dunno. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I would espouse that entire era of on-camera Mets seemed more winter-centric. 

I know Harvey Leonard first hand is top heavy on winter storms and snow in particular, though folks probably would not know that as he's remarkably polished in his impartiality with the public. 

You're right about Mark "Frozenballs"  ... "Froze-then-thawed" ..."Frozen Skull"  ...I heard a lot of those.   

Dick Albert rest his soul ...I think he was partial to convection but did really like blizzards fondly.   

And, who could forget Bruce Schwoegler ... man, that dude was basically like a mash up between Kevin and an actual Meteorology degree.  The man would like ... engineer storm threats out of meaningless subtropical cirrus streaks running off the Carolina coast ... I remember this once...  "I don't think the models are picking this up..."  'Course to be fair, that was back in the mid '80's when models really were capable of missing a whole actual tropospheric object like an STJ ...maybe.  There was one system in the early 1990s where he was honkin' 40 to 60 mph winds and 24" of snow and we got 1-3" and cobalt blue sunny day the next day and that seemed to start blinking his retirement light.  

Yeah...the 1976 to 2000 years were the pinnacle on-camera snow Met decades...  I think as recently as 2006 I saw something I didn't think I'd ever witness ... A Boston area, major network affiliate on-camera Meteorologist with a warm bias.  Channel 7.   Steve Bouchard I think was his name... 

Those were the days! Back in Dec. of  1973 I recall Don Kent being all excited about a major storm coming up the coast that was going to deliver 1-2 feet of snow. That was the Saturday prior to the day that OJ Simpson broke the single season rushing mark.  By Sunday the forecast had changed to more of a mix/ rain storm.  It was obvious that Kent was not happy about the turn of events. 

During the late 70's or early 80's there was a weekend met on channel 7 who was an obvious lover of winter weather.  I do not recall his name but he was the 1st to give a 7 day forecast.  For the most part he always had a snowstorm at the end of the 7 day forecast. He could conjure up a storm with the best of them!

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I dunno - I wouldn't bother to impugn them like just another member of the vitriolic hoi -polloi...  and remove any doubt  my station in society is just another douchy honk -

I'm not sure he's even a "bad" Met to be honest.  I never bothered to verify his snow totals/forecasts and/or temp outlooks.  It's just something I noticed; he was consummately some amount warmer in temps, and lower in snow, relative to almost every situation I ever happened to see him in the years he worked WHDH.  That sounds like I'm impugning him?  But he may have been right - I dunno. 

No- you are hitting the nail on the head.

 

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Looking at the broader rad/sat coverage ... the NAM was too far SE with the day's layout - starting to look. 

The area of steady moderate rains that's enveloped upstate NY was really QPF painted into SNE for mid/late day today... Not sure that's materializing in SNE the way that looked on those charts yesterday.  Or, perhaps the models were too dry in upstate NY... 

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

A few peeks of sun showing up now and if the Satellite is correct it seems we clear out shortly...should be enough to destabilize for later?

I don't think it really matters for us really. The better likelihood is down in NJ through NYC onto LI...perhaps coastal CT has an opportunity as they could be on the northern fringes if such a line as advertised materializes. 

They're actually beginning to recover some with the mlvl lapse rates and there is richer llvl moisture down that way with much stronger sfc heating. Could be a narrow swath of wind damage down that way. 

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1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Bob Copeland was another guy who I believe was a fan of big storms but kept a different face when broadcasting to the public. I had the pleasure of meeting him many years ago. Nice man 

Copeland was certainly a big fan of winter storms.  Back then all of the mets gave their own ideas/thoughts on a forecast. Now the majority just show futurecast without providing their own thoughts.  I consider Tim Kelley on NECN to be a throwback because he often goes into detail with his forecasts.

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Passed Fisher on the street once...said hi and received a grunt as acknowledgement. Maybe he didn't want to be recognized. I was probably the only person who would have noticed anyway. He seems to avoid the headline hype so that's good. Just comes across a bit full of himself.

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5 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Passed Fisher on the street once...said hi and received a grunt as acknowledgement. Maybe he didn't want to be recognized. I was probably the only person who would have noticed anyway. He seems to avoid the headline hype so that's good. Just comes across a bit full of himself.

That's pretty much all I receive from anyone walking around Southie nowadays. Everyone used to be friendly. Now people won't even look at you. It's sad really.

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wary or weary, don’t like the looks of some modeling with supercell tracks moving NE

ehh I don't think it is as bad as what is being advertised...assuming you're referencing the UD Helicity swaths? 

In this case, I think the UP helicity swaths (which we see 2-5km on the models) are heavily favored towards the higher portion of the llvls and lower portion of the mlvls. With that in mind the hodographs are largest when viewing the 0-3km layer as opposed to 0-1km layer given the shear in this level is pretty weak...IDK strong enough to yield TOR potential. Regardless, LCL's are very high and in fact keep rising. 

Another thing (at least for most of CT) is we may not generate much in the way of sfc instability...it's all elevated. Of course we can get elevated supercells but that would probably yield a risk for some hail and strong wind gusts. 

I'm not very impressed with the svr potential in CT outside of the shoreline. 

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Regarding Schwoegler’s penchant to make something out of nothing....one episode sticks out to me.  There was a hurricane off the SE coast and his reasoning for why it would hit us was SE winds at MWN which was the “upper level steering”.   What a weenie...

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21 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Passed Fisher on the street once...said hi and received a grunt as acknowledgement. Maybe he didn't want to be recognized. I was probably the only person who would have noticed anyway. He seems to avoid the headline hype so that's good. Just comes across a bit full of himself.

This is when you see folks true colors...not when they have to be nice. It’s when they don’t have to be, who are they really?

Although he may have had a bad meal and was grunting at his backdoor flaring up. You just never know, so I tend to give people a free pass until proven otherwise. 

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We spin

Shear
parameters are also good for some organization and prolonged
updrafts. 0-6km bulk shear values will be around 40-50kt in the
vicinity with low level shear (0-1km) of 25-35kts. Hi-res
guidance has progged the area of greatest updraft helicity (a
good indicator of severe weather) over CT into RI, and this is
where we would expect the best chance of strong to severe storms
this afternoon/evening. The 12Z run has even further increased
this high helicity potential, further increasing confidence
that we may see rotating storms. The best chance of severe
storms will likely be a window from 6pm to midnight, but can`t
rule out a storm outside of that. 
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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This is when you see folks true colors...not when they have to be nice. It’s when they don’t have to be, who are they really?

Although he may have had a bad meal and was grunting at his backdoor flaring up. You just never know, so I tend to give people a free pass until proven otherwise. 

A bit unfair Luke.  No one knows what was going on with him that day.....maybe he just got some terrible news?  

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm trying to learn python and doing some course on codecademy and one of the examples is doing stuff with celebrities, their age, and twitter handle and one of the celebrities is Taylor Swift :wub: :wub::wub: 

A friend refers to her as Failure Swift...…...

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