Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Interesting rain activity here. Just sitting right overhead. Wish it was oes in february It probably is ... just not February - what I mean by that is that it's the same mechanic for all intents and purposes... We haven't set this sort of circumstance up in the winter in quite some time ( that I can personally recall...) but... a fresh cold polar high establishes a cryo flow over the water that is near saturation... and that air mass is forced to lift over land and you get these bonus snows... They look like stationary blogs in winter though. Here they're more cellular sorta lookin' on radar. Only here, they summer taxing misty rains.. I remember ...I think it 1993-1994 ..we had that quite a bit in and prior to winter storms. The storm its self may have been a nickl/dimer but we got like 12 to 18 hours of brochuring when the polar high wedged in before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Up here up until the last 10 days or so, Its been cool and wet, And its back, After last nights 0.4", I just can't get rid of the swamp this year............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Solid view, agree...even though the writing is on the wall. It certainly is. I think the increasing moisture content and higher overnight mins even solidifies it....and the reasoning's and processes leading to this increase makes total sense. CO2 and I think H20 too(?) doesn't absorb s/w radiation very well...it absorbs l/w radiation emitted by earth...so at night when the Earth emits the l/w radiation it isn't being able to escape our atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: And we'll be close to par on that come Monday. I could see maybe 2 days of 90F+? No way we get four. I dunno, it’s just local bias as we aren’t +5 for the month like a lot of spots...it’s been very pleasant and near normal (0.3). We just averaged below normal for the past 4 day stretch. Gonna get hot for Saturday for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: It certainly is. I think the increasing moisture content and higher overnight mins even solidifies it....and the reasoning's and processes leading to this increase makes total sense. CO2 and I think H20 too(?) doesn't absorb s/w radiation very well...it absorbs l/w radiation emitted by earth...so at night when the Earth emits the l/w radiation it isn't being able to escape our atmosphere. Need more electric vehicles on earth, fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I've always had a hypothesis... Most of the temperature records (record warmth) has occurred since the AMO flipped in the mid 90's...and other global climate phenomena which is or what you would expect with a +AMO has occurred more frequently. My hypothesis is that once the AMO flips into the negative phase and after a period of time when the atmosphere responds accordingly...if we continue to see these extreme warmth signals and records being broken then there is absolutely no denying climate change due to global warming. We had a +AMO from 1930-1960. I'm sure things like Scoot mention factor into it, but it feels like we hit a tipping point with the GW. Now we have positive feedback mechanisms that continue to trend us in the warmer/wetter direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It certainly is. I think the increasing moisture content and higher overnight mins even solidifies it....and the reasoning's and processes leading to this increase makes total sense. CO2 and I think H20 too(?) doesn't absorb s/w radiation very well...it absorbs l/w radiation emitted by earth...so at night when the Earth emits the l/w radiation it isn't being able to escape our atmosphere. Don't forget CH4. AOC wants to eliminate all cows or at least genetically engineer them to stop shitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Need more electric vehicles on earth, fast. I would love one of those. 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We had a +AMO from 1930-1960. I'm sure things like Scoot mention factor into it, but it feels like we hit a tipping point with the GW. Now we have positive feedback mechanisms that continue to trend us in the warmer/wetter direction. There were also a quite a bit of record warm temperatures during that period too, right? But yeah, the positive feedback trending towards warmer/wetter is astonishing. Heck...I even think that is sort of influencing the teleconnector signals and eventually what we know or understand about certain things may not be truly accurate anymore 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Don't forget CH4. AOC wants to eliminate all cows or at least genetically engineer them to stop shitting. Then they'll get all bloated up making cow tipping more difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Don't forget CH4. AOC wants to eliminate all cows or at least genetically engineer them to stop shitting. Goats milk........ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Ok just had a big gust and cooler. Nice clean out of muck air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok just had a big gust and cooler. Nice clean out of muck air. Curious to how far south the front gets before it gets hung up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not all GW. You have spikes that are more explained by things like ENSO, AMO etc. But, there is an underlying trend overall for summers recently. "all" ? No.. of course not. - nothing in nature is all though... > 50 % ...? I'd be willing to be the farm. That's all that matters. If the ballast of negative impact is one's fault... it's one's fault the total system is f'ed. We cannot be lawyers and weasil our way out of culpability to this thing and crisis, because winning that debate leads inexorably to a very bad state of reality for the World. ... I've read enough advance theoretical, peer reviewed papers, ones that frankly... fit theoretical meteorology, elevating atmospheric gas constituency that are more proficient at storing thermal energy, causes increased capacity for WV in mass ...in turn.. rain, snow.... elevated lows to name a few. form ... to know that the noted increase in nocturnal lows all over the planet, as well as statistical rainfall anomalies all over the planet... are not happening because of ENSO, AMO...etc... These WV-related elevated quotients are happening regardless of ENSO warm or cool phase... AMO was positive when this GW curve hockey-stick, and now...it's flipping negative and we still hockey stick... weee... So it's true in both cases... Seems there is a knee jerk tendency to refute this GW ... when in evidentiary, there is growing data base of events that are mathematically connectable to the spectrum of consequences being observed... It's been a popularized mantra, then codified by populism narrative... But I digress.. .sorry. Anyway, there's definitely a ' counter-culture' to do so. This was clearly put into motion back in the 1990s. The forefathers of the science ...man, were they ever neolithically incompetent in how to bring the concerns to the light without offending people's way of life. If they had just not doomed everyone then, this row would have been avoided - I think.. . Because of that heredity...we are going to be suffering no-sayers WHILE humanity's bus is careening off the cliff of what probably is a directly related cocktail of cataclysmis that ultimately force population correction - that's the Sci fi dystopian extreme, granted... But, you know... if it does... all of the off-set "plausible" denial statements will be etched onto the headstone of human kind like the names of fallen heros upon the Vietnam Memorial monolith down in D.C.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Definitely clearing out with lower dews now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm being partially tongue in cheek ... They may be fine. If you have information privy to the instrumentation that is real and reviewable, by all means. I just recall back in college that all those ob points were rounded - if they have some decimal equivalent improvement in finite measure techniques, awesome! Otherwise, I've seen too many obs vary at random times over the years ... like 60 degrees at one, and 110 degree directions at the other, during easterly gales... when a focused jet should have them all be locked at 90 ... That doesn't inspire confidence when one sees that. Maybe things have improved... Most appear to have been replaced in the 2005-07 time frame, but they started as early as 2003 according to this schedule: https://www.weather.gov/media/asos/ASOS Implementation/IFW_stat.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Don't forget CH4. AOC wants to eliminate all cows or at least genetically engineer them to stop shitting. Lol.. Impossible Burgers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 The heat has been dialed back a tick for Sat. Looks like an ordinary two day heat spike in the heart of summer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok just had a big gust and cooler. Nice clean out of muck air. Dews dropping here. 72 down to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Definitely clearing out with lower dews now. Can see it nicely on visible. Looks like afternoon work event is saved. We had thought severe thunderstorms, high dews, high 80s a week ago. Now it's backdoor front and 70f. No a/c in this new building and 70 people expected. Maybe I won't sweat an embarrassing amount now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The heat has been dialed back a tick for Sat. Looks like an ordinary two day heat spike in the heart of summer now. 98 is not ordinary for KBOS at least historically. I remember long stretches when 93-94 would be hottest of the year. Only 2001 on has it seemingly been so much hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Hottest temps at Logan Airport by year: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Hottest temps at Logan Airport by year: ...too small to read; won't load when clicking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: 98 is not ordinary for KBOS at least historically. I remember long stretches when 93-94 would be hottest of the year. Only 2001 on has it seemingly been so much hotter. Mid 90s are being forecasted here. Pretty ordinary for peak climo but yes sure the warm sites will get close to 100 when a plane roars by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 50 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I could see maybe 2 days of 90F+? No way we get four. I dunno, it’s just local bias as we aren’t +5 for the month like a lot of spots...it’s been very pleasant and near normal (0.3). We just averaged below normal for the past 4 day stretch. Gonna get hot for Saturday for sure though. "close to par" It's definitely been more anomalous further south. BTV is below normal on their torch HIX values YTD. BDL is only slightly below it YTD. And yes, I'm having fun with the ISU plots today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...too small to read; won't load when clicking Yeah that was weird...lets see if this works: 1936 98 1937 99 1938 94 1939 96 1940 95 1941 96 1942 93 1943 97 1944 101 1945 96 1946 96 1947 99 1948 100 1949 101 1950 93 1951 92 1952 100 1953 100 1954 95 1955 100 1956 97 1957 98 1958 93 1959 96 1960 93 1961 95 1962 92 1963 98 1964 97 1965 93 1966 97 1967 94 1968 98 1969 95 1970 94 1971 94 1972 94 1973 99 1974 95 1975 102 1976 95 1977 102 1978 99 1979 95 1980 99 1981 99 1982 98 1983 99 1984 98 1985 93 1986 95 1987 96 1988 99 1989 96 1990 93 1991 99 1992 92 1993 99 1994 97 1995 100 1996 91 1997 95 1998 93 1999 98 2000 92 2001 97 2002 101 2003 93 2004 93 2005 97 2006 98 2007 96 2008 95 2009 95 2010 100 2011 103 2012 97 2013 99 2014 93 2015 96 2016 98 2017 95 2018 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 A lot of our ~100F heat is done with lower dews like 2011. Kick a trough through torched midlevels and that westerly flow compresses us into Furnace Creek hell. Hot Saturday was definitely an exception back in 75. So I wouldn't say a HIX of 110F is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Dews in the 60s at BDL now. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: A lot of our ~100F heat is done with lower dews like 2011. Kick a trough through torched midlevels and that westerly flow compresses us into Furnace Creek hell. Hot Saturday was definitely an exception back in 75. So I wouldn't say a HIX of 110F is normal. NAM also mixes out on Saturday, esp north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Sunday could be a sneaky oppressive day. Everyone is focusing on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2019 Author Share Posted July 18, 2019 I've never seen that before from that particular data source. It's the NAM's FOUS (FRH) grid... BOS LGA 36000697256 -2595 072416 82292317 36000726126 -6093 102009 81302417 42000815251 -0196 072716 80272318 42061857676 -9995 122519 78262316 48000863332 -1096 093010 80262217 48000927059 01095 112708 80262517 54000573930 -0996 092303 81312317 54000626240 00692 102607 81322417 60000574640 -1794 072207 82312519 Those bold-raised fonts are the thickness ... 582 dm ... 581 dm... so on.. Having one is unusual...and rare. I've seen 580+ on one or two intervals, ...several times since the mid 2000's years ( re the other debate; I don't recall ever seeing thicknesses that high when this product was "ETA" ... way back whence, but that could also be the model physics too..). I have never seen two intervals in a row over Logan ... or if I have, so infrequently that I don't recall. This is 5 intervals...back to back. That's incredible. I remember some pig heat bombs modeled back in the day ... late 1990s we had a couple bad ones where the T1 was progged to be 34 C and 26 C at 900 mb ... those did not have these attending very high anomalous H500 thickness plumbs. I'm wondering if this really is a DP thing... Like perhaps the WV is inflating the thicknesses.. It makes some intuitive sense... Take that bottom most row on the left (BOS) ... 582 thickness... ooph... But, the T1 is "only" 31 C .. but the T2 is 25C ...That's an unusually stable look for that interval - owing the the general hot profile... But, I suspect that 31 C is held in check by ...essentially being under water. It seems for 25 and 19 over top, that bottom number should be 34 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Dews in the 60s at BDL now. Enjoy! Time for the Davis obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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