CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Weeklies have had a bad cold bias. We toss and we AN for Aug I think. The summers of 2009 are gone I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 95F is a big number to beat for ORH....they've only exceed 94F twice since that 1991 outbreak. In back to back years in 2010 and 2011. I just don't understand why ORH is always so cold....i mean it's not that high in elevation. Having CAR higher in temp than ORH is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have had a bad cold bias. We toss and we AN for Aug I think. The summers of 2009 are gone I think. Aug looks nasty, esp the dews, with the war ticking closer and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have had a bad cold bias. We toss and we AN for Aug I think. The summers of 2009 are gone I think. Yeah I think we see less high heat in Augorch, but more sustained dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have had a bad cold bias. We toss and we AN for Aug I think. The summers of 2009 are gone I think. Not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Did you read the article? They are quoting a Planet Fitness survey, not something that they created. If anything you should be saying "Planet Fitness...nuff said". Those Dems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I just don't understand why ORH is always so cold....i mean it's not that high in elevation. Having CAR higher in temp than ORH is just ridiculous. ORH is in a bad spot for getting big heat...SNE typically gets our best heat advection on like W or WSW flow...but for ORH that isn't a good downslope direction....you really want like NW flow. So it's better if the heat comes over the top through Canada and upstate NY which happens less frequently. Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air, it's really hard to exceed 95F at 1000 feet. CAR is only like 400 feet, so on the right setup, they can bake a little higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Thankfully there are independents who can take it all in...and decide and think for themselves. 82/59, COC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have had a bad cold bias. We toss and we AN for Aug I think. The summers of 2009 are gone I think. On the fence... I wonder if this propensity for buckling the flow above the 45th parallel that doesn't seem to be going away from the models... Is that "perhaps" a clue that there is meridional canvas lurking here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Who is "all" ??? here we go again.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: yeah, I assume he means check in on the untapped app.. i just skip checking that in. Would never have to worry here about checking in micro brews, I drink very few beers these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: On the fence... I wonder if this propensity for buckling the flow above the 45th parallel that doesn't seem to be going away from the models... Is that "perhaps" a clue that there is meridional canvas lurking here? I was speaking more to the moisture bias that they tend to have in the warm season. Almost like how the climo models love to make everything on the surface with pretty oranges in winter when we know AK ridging will cause the freezer to move in. I see some hints of a SE ridge in the East. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Would never have to worry here about checking in micro brews, I drink very few beers these days. It’s the healthy approach, minimal alcohol. Green plants agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On a side note, a bit of a Sultan signal pike south sometime tomorrow night or Thursday. Definitely a FF threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s the healthy approach, minimal alcohol. Green plants agree. Is there a strain app? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH is in a bad spot for getting big heat...SNE typically gets our best heat advection on like W or WSW flow...but for ORH that isn't a good downslope direction....you really want like NW flow. So it's better if the heat comes over the top through Canada and upstate NY which happens less frequently. Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air, it's really hard to exceed 95F at 1000 feet. CAR is only like 400 feet, so on the right setup, they can bake a little higher. I'm pretty sure if we convert sigma coordinates to feet elevation we'd find that 1, 000 is plenty high enough to be well above the BL logarithmic sloping... We've had boundary layers only 1,000 deep before.. rare. But like you said, give me a Sonoran release air mass up over southern Can and down ( I believe that was hot Sat back in the 1970s) and that direction is katabatic for Worcester .. they'll cook. But your right, ...the more typical continental conveyor is actually a borderline 'upslope' condition .. folks need to realize.. in neutral buoyancy if the air has any forced ascent at all, that is cooling the parcel - doesn't have to be all the way down to the condensation point to begin that process. In a way ... if it's 91 at HFD in a so-so DP and you run that up the west sides of the hills there.. you may actually lose a couple ticks that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weeklies have had a bad cold bias. We toss and we AN for Aug I think. The summers of 2009 are gone I think. I recall posters in 2012 touting that March is no longer a winter month and it's been one practically every year since. Not that I think you're wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, MetHerb said: I recall posters in 2012 touting that March is no longer a winter month and it's been one practically every year since. Not that I think you're wrong... It's just the way it's been. Maybe one summer comes along and parks that Hudson Bay trough over our fannies, but for whatever the reason (GW and more sub-seasonal things like ENSO AMOC etc) it's been very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Also, saying a very cool summer is much different than saying a climo cold month is now a spring month. One has facts, the other fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: If i checked in all the beer brands i have consumed over the years it would rival the thickness of a bible. Yeah, in my line of work I'm sure I would be in the thousands. I have saved a few hundred individual cans with, the qualification being, I needed to like the artwork and the liquid for it to be a keeper. They adorn the steal beams of my basement and will go into the man cave when I build it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thankfully there are independents who can take it all in...and decide and think for themselves. 82/59, COC. As oppose to watching Fox News...……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 Mmm... we go through phases that last all different time spans, where the product of noise only seems to favor flopping things on cold or hot sides of normality. But, it's like coin flipping? You can flip heads-tales-heads-heads-heads-tales-tales-head-heads-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tales-tale-tales... and think, oh, well, those heads early on were just outliers... But then you flip heads 80 times out of nowhere before returning back to every-other-one again... No pattern really - Smacks as something like that,... the whole March cool vs warm thing. Although, suppose GW (or GC) gets out of control sloped, than any given March may have a somewhat better chance of being warmer(cooler) respective of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: Is there a strain app? If there isn’t, lets get one going. $$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ORH is in a bad spot for getting big heat...SNE typically gets our best heat advection on like W or WSW flow...but for ORH that isn't a good downslope direction....you really want like NW flow. So it's better if the heat comes over the top through Canada and upstate NY which happens less frequently. Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air, it's really hard to exceed 95F at 1000 feet. CAR is only like 400 feet, so on the right setup, they can bake a little higher. It’s also that all 1,000ft els aren’t created equally... I think ORH benefits from being highest terrain around. Different from like 1,000ft in a NNE mountain valley (see HIE, BML). Even yesterday AFN was 3F higher at 81F despite 1,000ft because they do have some higher terrain around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: It’s also that all 1,000ft els aren’t created equally... I think ORH benefits from being highest terrain around. Different from like 1,000ft in a NNE mountain valley (see HIE, BML). Even yesterday AFN was 3F higher at 81F despite 1,000ft because they do have some higher terrain around them. Right, better to be at 1000ft and have a higher relative elevation or prominence vs being at 1000ft and surrounded by terrain like a fishbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I recall posters in 2012 touting that March is no longer a winter month and it's been one practically every year since. Not that I think you're wrong... We'll have another 2009 or 2000 summer at some point. These things tend to go in cycles even with an underlying warming trend. We couldn't buy a cold summer for a stretch in the 1940s and early 1950s....save maybe summer of '46. Then there was a stretch in the mid 1980s to early 1990s we couldn't buy a hot summer save for 1988. The Summer of 1949 is still the warmest on record for the state of MA. There's going to be some big dips and peaks on a year to year basis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s also that all 1,000ft els aren’t created equally... I think ORH benefits from being highest terrain around. Different from like 1,000ft in a NNE mountain valley (see HIE, BML). Even yesterday AFN was 3F higher at 81F despite 1,000ft because they do have some higher terrain around them. Yep, that's why I said " Unless you have a downslope or compression aspect to the air " that its really hard to hit 95+ at 1,000 feet at this latitude. You need something to cook the air like the chinook out west in Montana/Wyoming or on a more local scale like HIE/BML off the presidentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah I think we see less high heat in Augorch, but more sustained dews Mugust? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s also that all 1,000ft els aren’t created equally... I think ORH benefits from being highest terrain around. Different from like 1,000ft in a NNE mountain valley (see HIE, BML). Even yesterday AFN was 3F higher at 81F despite 1,000ft because they do have some higher terrain around them. KTOL same idea. Which is why Herb in the valley there in Stafford, under the hilltops , but still not at a real low elevation can radiate fake cold so well , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right, better to be at 1000ft and have a higher relative elevation or prominence vs being at 1000ft and surrounded by terrain like a fishbowl. Yup, all relative. Put MWN in the Himalayas, equals BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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