Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember a brutal BDF, I think in late June 1994 it was....went to like 63F type stuff and you could smell the stink of seaweed all the way back to where I was in ORH. Pretty cool though to smell it so easily that far inland. Yup ... and I know the markers in the FRH grid ... Classic set up here for that - we'll see... But, first the wind flips from SW to NW... then, creeps around the dial to light NE ... then, the acceleration brings low tide to slammed up against the Worcester Hills with trees swaying in gusts.. Meanwhile ... the radar show llv echo band sinuously wobbling west-SW toward a Kevin ... texting how it'll never get there. Oh it does... and instead of admitting it, he just disappears and won't post for 24 hours sulking - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ... and I know the markers in the FRH grid ... Classic set up here for that - we'll see... But, first the wind flips from SW to NW... then, creeps around the dial to light NE ... then, the acceleration brings low tide to slammed up against the Worcester Hills with trees swaying in gusts.. Meanwhile ... the radar show llv echo band sinuously wobbling west-SW toward a Kevin ... texting how it'll never get there. Oh it does... and instead of admitting it, he just disappears and won't post for 24 hours sulking - ya think? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 The more raw and wet Thursday gets the more I fear we muck up a portion of Friday up here. Like one of those 70/68 overcast mornings that turns into an 87/75 in the afternoon. Nammy is still trying to wedge in 50s dews through 15z Fri while trying to advect mid 70s from WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s awesome . It’s honestly something to look forward to. I’ve got a buddy coming over to take down a dead Oak and then we’re heading up to Treehouse. Gotta enjoy summer in summer Coming home to a cold one included! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ... and I know the markers in the FRH grid ... Classic set up here for that - we'll see... But, first the wind flips from SW to NW... then, creeps around the dial to light NE ... then, the acceleration brings low tide to slammed up against the Worcester Hills with trees swaying in gusts.. Meanwhile ... the radar show llv echo band sinuously wobbling west-SW toward a Kevin ... texting how it'll never get there. Oh it does... and instead of admitting it, he just disappears and won't post for 24 hours sulking - There won’t be any of the 40’s and 50’s cold wedge slamming back to Albany that you are forecasting . I could see CT staying in the muggy 75-80 degree range Thursday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 World record dewpoint is 95. That would be the death of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Friday’s temps have been alternating back and forth on nam . Upper 80’s today on nam for Friday I give the NAM propts for playing homage to all the sore-butt times in the lower resolution modeled 1990s that either denied BDs... or, tried to erode their toxic sludge out too readily the next day. It's like it's remember the shrill agony of ancestral modeled passed and trying - ha We had an old rule of thumb when strata deckage cold sloshed in and slammed up against Berks like a terminating tsunamis wave ... always take the most retarded warm up model and add yet another 12 hours to it... Not so sure about now though... In 20 years, they may be better about timing of erosion/bust out... My guess is, there's stills something to be desired and improvements can be had. But holding temp to the upper 80s could even be generous if that air mass is really going to be all that invasive as these numbers suggested. We'll have to see just how strongly the BD arrives... If the NAM proves over zealous, than obviously it takes less to back/erode it out again.. If it's right on the front side though... I certainly wouldn't error on the side of an earlier Friday heat return. Yup... we may actually succeed at NOT getting a heat wave here at all if these atmosphere keeps engineering this shit. You know ... this is all part-and parcel in why we can't really put money down on flat ridging delivering heat here... It's too f'n fragile. It waits until nearer terms to suddenly see the BD this or the front sped up timing on Sunday that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Records for Saturday. Hopefully CON is back up by then... CON 101 (1977) PVD 101 (1991) BDL 100 (1991) BOS 99 (1991) BTV 99 (1977) MQE 99 (1991) BGR 96 (1991) PWM 96 (1949) ORH 95 (1991) BDR 95 (1991) CAR 95 (1991) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: The more raw and wet Thursday gets the more I fear we muck up a portion of Friday up here. Like one of those 70/68 overcast mornings that turns into an 87/75 in the afternoon. Nammy is still trying to wedge in 50s dews through 15z Fri while trying to advect mid 70s from WNE. Oh forget it, dude ... Sorry, your not invited to the party that day "IF" this aggressive of a BD takes place. That contention you described there ? That is all but a concession of total failure... may as well be, and a residence cool/murk slab that steals the whole day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 So Friday could be a western New England heat day W of EEN to ORH to CT/RI border ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 It does look like 12z Nam is farther north and east with the bd front than 6z was. So it may be correcting back towards other guidance which isn’t as aggressive . Especially with such a bulging ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I would guess UUU , BID, PVD , EWB all see at least mid 70’s I bet more than that see mid-70s. Even up here we saw a 78 dew point last year at MVL at like 8pm after a thunderstorm... the main time for it is like 6-9am and again from 6-9pm This morning was another good example... at 6am it was 52/51 here and almost chilly. Then by 9am it was 72/60 as that dew/fog evaporates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So Friday could be a western New England heat day W of EEN to ORH to CT/RI border ? I think it still ends up 90s for most...I mean it's the LR NAM and it isn't exactly showing the scenario I threw out there. It's trying to throw sun up my way right through morning while advecting in the higher dews. I'm just saying it wouldn't shock me if it ends up a little murky to start in the usual wedge spots. Has a classic 5pm max temp look though as we continue to advect in high dews and warmer 850s throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It does look like 12z Nam is farther north and east with the bd front than 6z was. So it may be correcting back towards other guidance which isn’t as aggressive . Especially with such a bulging ridge Nope -completely negligible differences.. It's hard to really glean the BD out of that mess... The NAM's numerical parameters is what really suggests one is 'hidden' in that fray. From the larger more generalized synopsis ... there is a wave forming on the front and that is serving to accelerate/draw cool saturated marine puke all the way down SW of NYC... That whole thing could relax half way and you'd still be f'ed I'm afraid. Friday you should break back the other way sooner than Worcester, sure - ... but you're definitely spending time in jail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: So Friday could be a western New England heat day W of EEN to ORH to CT/RI border ? Like I said... and I don't speak for other Mets or whomever ... but, if the NAM is right about the mass and aggression in which it slams that in... Yeah, I think Friday disappoints over eastern New England. We just have too many decades of sore butts not to tip-toe by the BD dong haha.. Seriously, we'll have to see how potent that BD is ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Icon and 3k NAM flood us.. I'm sure that will bounce around though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 The brochure days may be coming to an end for a few days this weekend... But man what a stretch, highs in the 70s (60s above 2,500ft) and comfy dews the past several days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Records for Saturday. Hopefully CON is back up by then... CON 101 (1977) PVD 101 (1991) BDL 100 (1991) BOS 99 (1991) BTV 99 (1977) MQE 99 (1991) BGR 96 (1991) PWM 96 (1949) ORH 95 (1991) BDR 95 (1991) CAR 95 (1991) 95F is a big number to beat for ORH....they've only exceed 94F twice since that 1991 outbreak. In back to back years in 2010 and 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 hour ago, butterfish55 said: Just heard Corey on 98.5. He's the best Me too. That stat about Aaron Rogers was nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 95F is a big number to beat for ORH....they've only exceed 94F twice since that 1991 outbreak. In back to back years in 2010 and 2011. Yeah I think a lot of those are safe. Maybe PWM and an outside shot at BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Yeah I think a lot of those are safe. Maybe PWM and an outside shot at BOS? Yeah BOS has a shot...especially with the ASOS running too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Be interesting to see the departures at this time next week. So far for the first half of July we are back to +0.5, after the past 2 below normal days. Average high/low so far is 82.4F and 53.6F, but those will both be coming up over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 87 BDL now. Should be good for 93 high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 87 BDL now. Should be good for 93 high W 850’s rising quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 87 BDL now. Should be good for 93 high ORH up to 78F... might hit 80F today in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 80F here. Maybe we hit 83. Amazing stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 GFS looks similar to 6z for Friday... ~100F in the torch spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS looks similar to 6z for Friday... ~100F in the torch spots. The BDL record should be smashed . I’d guess 102 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The good ole boys tried You've recovered from your Corona Light debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now