Baroclinic Zone Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 11:16 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Where the heck is CT Blizz? Expand Drinking shitty beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 11:16 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Where the heck is CT Blizz? Expand The usual cycle... his hype and shtick built-up over time, then there was a little piggy pile about how it was getting old, and ORH posted a good beginner's guide to interpreting DIT's posts.... then he takes a week off or something. He hasn't posted since then anyway. He'll come back when it's 95/72 in full glory later this week I'm sure. He's lurking at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Some of you SNE guys can riddle me this... How the hell did BDL see 89F today while ORH had a high of 78F? That's twice the dry adiabatic rate and they are only 1,000ft elevation difference? I mean I know you'll have some compressional heating at BDL on downslope NW flow... but an 11-degree difference between those two sites on a deep layer NW flow day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 5:25 PM, Ginx snewx said: So so many perfect July days. Water is just right. Need some surf Expand 100% agree Steve. A little recurving home brew would be a welcome addition for the south facing beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:08 AM, powderfreak said: Some of you SNE guys can riddle me this... How the hell did BDL see 89F today while ORH had a high of 78F? That's twice the dry adiabatic rate and they are only 1,000ft elevation difference? I mean I know you'll have some compressional heating at BDL on downslope NW flow... but an 11-degree difference between those two sites on a deep layer NW flow day? Expand It’s like ORH airport is 2400’ and BDL 50’ 89 seems absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:17 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s like ORH airport is 2200’ and BDL 50’ Expand Honestly, that type of difference is what we typically see up here between BTV at 300ft and the base of Bolton Valley at 2,200ft. It's not like one site was in the clouds or anything... both had CLR obs most of the day with 5-10mph NW breeze. And it's like ORH struggled to hit 78F too looking at the obs, while BDL sat at 89F for a couple hourly obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 BOS also maxed at 87F... sneaky high temps, I had no idea the lower elevations in SNE were 85-90F today. Hills and NNE were 70s for highs it looks like. Seems like a more drastic contrast than you'd normally get with CLR skies and deep layer NW flow. Must've been just enough compressional heating off the hills to really bake those SNE lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:28 AM, powderfreak said: BOS also maxed at 87F... sneaky high temps, I had no idea the lower elevations in SNE were 85-90F today. Hills and NNE were 70s for highs it looks like. Seems like a more drastic contrast than you'd normally get with CLR skies and deep layer NW flow. Must've been just enough compressional heating off the hills to really bake those SNE lower elevations. Expand I believe I had 83 in Nashua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:23 AM, powderfreak said: Honestly, that type of difference is what we typically see up here between BTV at 300ft and the base of Bolton Valley at 2,200ft. It's not like one site was in the clouds or anything... both had CLR obs most of the day with 5-10mph NW breeze. And it's like ORH struggled to hit 78F too looking at the obs, while BDL sat at 89F for a couple hourly obs. Expand 87 here and in Westfield, MA. BDL seems to have drifted a couple degrees high IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 PF, Also Monday, state officials confirmed two dogs that recently died in Stowe were poisoned by toxins from cyanobacteria. https://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Cyanobacteria-Concerns-Highlighted-in-Vermont-512754151.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 10:34 PM, CoastalWx said: Easy Trump. I know what was said and what was forecasted. Imo, it wasn’t overhyped when guidance is gung ho. Granted I wasn’t sure of those numbers in a large area, but it wasn’t like someone just pulled shit out of their ass. I drown out the alarmists as that’s not hype, that is misinformation. Same on the other side. Expand Easy who? Whats the other side? You definitely have TDS. I have said the same thing for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:35 AM, Ginx snewx said: PF, Also Monday, state officials confirmed two dogs that recently died in Stowe were poisoned by toxins from cyanobacteria. https://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Cyanobacteria-Concerns-Highlighted-in-Vermont-512754151.html Expand Damn, that's terrifying to think your dog can die after swimming in a pond. Thanks for the heads up. We stick to moving water for the most part, the river out back that runs from Mansfield to town... but most homes in the hills out of the municipal water supply tend to have ponds. Pretty much all construction above 1,000ft seems to have a pond in the front yard for fire reasons...without a pond for the fire department to pump from, you are pretty much out of luck if your house catches fire and it's going to burn to the ground. That would be devastating though to have the dog die from doing something it loves like swimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:42 AM, powderfreak said: Damn, that's terrifying to think your dog can die after swimming in a pond. Thanks for the heads up. We stick to moving water for the most part, the river out back that runs from Mansfield to town... but most homes in the hills out of the municipal water supply tend to have ponds. Pretty much all construction above 1,000ft seems to have a pond in the front yard for fire reasons...without a pond for the fire department to pump from, you are pretty much out of luck if your house catches fire and it's going to burn to the ground. That would be devastating though to have the dog die from doing something it loves like swimming. Expand Adult and pup,yes moving water is where its at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:38 AM, Ginx snewx said: Easy who? Whats the other side? You definitely have TDS. I have said the same thing for years. Expand Did you step on doggie doo and track it in the house today? Very angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 10:25 PM, TheCloser24 said: 12z UKMET shows 5”-10” of rain across NY, CT, and RI on Thursday. 12z EURO has 1”-3” of rain across the same area. 12z GFS has scattered showers. Expand Ukie is definitely one heck of a rainstorm.. precip blossoms between hr 60 and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:08 AM, powderfreak said: Some of you SNE guys can riddle me this... How the hell did BDL see 89F today while ORH had a high of 78F? That's twice the dry adiabatic rate and they are only 1,000ft elevation difference? I mean I know you'll have some compressional heating at BDL on downslope NW flow... but an 11-degree difference between those two sites on a deep layer NW flow day? Expand Maxed out at 85F here. Tack on a few degrees for UHI and you get 89F. Site may run a degree or 2 warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 12:55 AM, CoastalWx said: Did you step on doggie doo and track it in the house today? Very angry. Expand Someone needs to turn off the hype machines of TV and Social Media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 I continue to be less and less impressed by the Ukmet. That thing is pounding tons of four loco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:03 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: Maxed out at 85F here. Tack on a few degrees for UHI and you get 89F. Site may run a degree or 2 warm Expand Looking at a satellite view on Google, it doesn't look necessarily like a true UHI.... TAN area looks more developed, TBH. BDL looks to have a lot of fields around it and there's really no development to it's NW where the prevailing wind was coming from. SSE looks like it would be the more developed side. But who knows what the local tarmac is like and where the siting is relative to runways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:10 AM, powderfreak said: Looking at a satellite view on Google, it doesn't look necessarily like a true UHI.... TAN area looks more developed, TBH. BDL looks to have a lot of fields around it and there's really no development to it's NW where the prevailing wind was coming from. SSE looks like it would be the more developed side. But who knows what the local tarmac is like and where the siting is relative to runways. Expand I never trust BDL highs. I’ll take a bank reading in West Hartford over it for better representation of death valley temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:10 AM, CoastalWx said: I continue to be less and less impressed by the Ukmet. That thing is pounding tons of four loco Expand Jb must like it he tweeted about an excessive rainstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:10 AM, powderfreak said: Looking at a satellite view on Google, it doesn't look necessarily like a true UHI.... TAN area looks more developed, TBH. BDL looks to have a lot of fields around it and there's really no development to it's NW where the prevailing wind was coming from. SSE looks like it would be the more developed side. But who knows what the local tarmac is like and where the siting is relative to runways. Expand The ASOS is located at the marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 And here is the irony which is the ORH ASOS. Surrounded by more tarmac than BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:19 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I never trust BDL highs. I’ll take a bank reading in West Hartford over it for better representation of death valley temps. Expand It's crazy because HFD looks more UHI than BDL... but HFD's high was 86F and the highest hourly ob was 85F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:22 AM, dendrite said: The ASOS is located at the marker. Expand Hot and dry open field climate? They also had the lowest dewpoint I could find of 49F. CEF had a high of 85F but a min dewpoint of 53F. Extra downslope/compressional drying/heating of the air mass? Still seems like a lot of extra degrees from other areas. Pretty sure Bradley has higher plane traffic inbound/outbound all day long tough...no idea how that affects it but jet engines running back and forth all the time might do it. Passenger and shipping operations out of that airport seem to occur pretty steadily all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:28 AM, dendrite said: And here is the irony which is the ORH ASOS. Surrounded by more tarmac than BDL. Expand What a horrible spot. I remember when they changed it a few years back. It used to be to the left of the "Worcester regional airport" text on that shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 2:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said: You and your staff are certainly already privy to the following ... But, this model's immediate ancestor seriously and embarrassingly gaffed last year's summer heat episodes with ungodly ... hell-bound top errors in the boundary layer. And it wasn't just heat... It blew it in some of those cold cyclone systems in March 2018 as well... having 3.5" of QPF in CCB, with temperatures of 39 over DPS of 32 - type absurdities. Question: I read the PDF/demo of the then FV3' and how it was argued a better performer, but that performance appears to be focused in deep layer tropospheric steering and synoptic stretching/progressive corrections. I'm not sure if any improvements in the BL thermal handling was included? If not ... heh... should we assume the heredity for suspect BL handling is still there?? Expand The short answer is this was a "do no harm" update to the dynamical core. From there it theoretically be easier to improve on forecasts. The longer answer is that the GFS definitely had an over-mixing the boundary layer problem. Obviously showing up most notably during winter storms ( typically inverted) and HHH days (typically high moisture content leading to lower lapse rates). To my knowledge this hasn't been eliminated in the FV3 version. Look for more significant improvements on the model itself in 2020-2021. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:22 AM, dendrite said: The ASOS is located at the marker. Expand It used to be in a giant field on the other side of Rte 75 until they moved it "on field" in the 90s. Temps took a noticeable tick up when they did that, especially the mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/16/2019 at 1:22 AM, dendrite said: The ASOS is located at the marker. Expand That doesn't show all of BDL they have huge parking lots and buildings which I'm sure add to the heat.. planes are constantly going over my house at peak travel times.. I would say every 2 to 5 minutes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/15/2019 at 5:47 PM, tamarack said: After playing with Google Earth, those above locations confirm my suspicions that, prior to the current observer's move to 1.3 miles N of the PO, all locations were in the built-up part of town. The 19898-to-1942 site would be among houses that, for the most part, are still there. It and 1944-45 are on SW-facing sidehills, while the others prior to 1966 are pretty much flat. The original at/near PO location has been built up for well over a century, though in the 1890s the streets were likely unpaved. The current location lies north of the built-up area, on a west-facing sidehill, a considerably different type of site from all previous ones. The info you found can explain a number of facets of the co-op's data, and looking for signs of 7 AM obs time (typically, "twin" winter minima during a cold snap when nearby sites only show one) can offer additional clarity. I've found no signs of mid-afternoon (typically 4 PM) obs, most easily noted by twin maximums in hot weather. The 6/1/1948 date is one I've noted as start-up for many other co-ops. It's like NWS got some post-war funds to establish dozens to hundreds of new sites, and perhaps some relocations of existing ones. Expand They also had a plethora of returning vets to employee at airfields. Right now Farmington is a midnight ob, but I'm not sure how long it has been that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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