STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 21 minutes ago, dendrite said: And most of us have been saying the same thing for days? What was the diurnal swing at black beaver dam last 24 Asking for a (Milf) friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: What’s was the diurnal swing at black beaver dam last 24 I thought you were the beaver expert? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes, this doesn’t seem to have enough interest to garner even a sentence from some of the other brightest minds here...but you make (IMO) good points on how it wouldn’t take much to mute the weekend “super” heat I mean I'd plan for heat ... but we've seen more clad set ups before... This has a bit more uncertainty to it. That's all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Barry looks to have an area that has almost 15 to 20 inches already. So narrow area may work out to have those big amounts, just not as large as some guidance had. Which when you have a system look like this, isn’t that hard to believe. However, for this one storm that didn’t work out quite as planned, I can think of a few others that certainly exceeded what model guidance had. From a rain standpoint, while it didn’t work out with this one, I don’t think it was overhyped considering what model guidance had and past history with tropical systems. Actually ... good point. I was thinking wrt to overall structure of the system and intensity.. But, prolific rain as an individual metric - I'm less than certain of there ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 80/56, nw 8mph. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 It's going to be hot either way later this week and weekend. So forecasts of big heat are unlikely to get negative backlash if it underperforms. In Tip's scenario of busting...89/73 type day...it's still nasty and oppressive out. Mostly only the nerds like us will notice or care that the 98-100F turned into 90. Luckily, BOS is running warm right now so they might pull a 96F out of a "real" 93F day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's going to be hot either way later this week and weekend. So forecasts of big heat are unlikely to get negative backlash if it underperforms. In Tip's scenario of busting...89/73 type day...it's still nasty and oppressive out. Mostly only the nerds like us will notice or care that the 98-100F turned into 90. Luckily, BOS is running warm right now so they might pull a 96F out of a "real" 93F day. BOS pulled a 95 out of their arse a week ago Saturday...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's going to be hot either way later this week and weekend. So forecasts of big heat are unlikely to get negative backlash if it underperforms. In Tip's scenario of busting...89/73 type day...it's still nasty and oppressive out. Mostly only the nerds like us will notice or care that the 98-100F turned into 90. Luckily, BOS is running warm right now so they might pull a 96F out of a "real" 93F day. There really isn’t much else to talk about seems like most are hinting that the 22c 850’s aren’t a slam dunk but to John’s point it seems that we are right on periphery and that (in his experience) more often than not that translates to 91/72 and 18c 850 98/72 would be somewhat exciting to track given a dearth of anything interesting outside of wether a polar bear in Alaska hit 86.5f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Will would probably know...how often does ORH fail to reach 90F for a summer? It will probably happen Saturday or Sunday, but could bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The Barry totals were definitely a big bust. That's good though...obviously less flooding than expected. Kind of the opposite of what happened in Harvey when the totals were more than forecast. Actually for Harvey , the old Euro had 40 inch totals 5 days out consistently but was ignored. This time the 15 plus totals kept getting smaller and smaller and further west but were ignored. The hypesters failed again. Tiring to read/see every hot cold wet dry weather system on climate change. There are enough CC issues without all this see look frauds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 Yeah ... I get it about the 99 versus 89 thing. I was just musing with PF last week ... it's on my bucket list to walk off an airplane into 120 F ... It's no different than wanting to visit the Eiffel Tower, the Great Wall of China, the Pyramids... the 72" snow on the level after compaction winter pack - ... In that same vein, to be able to amble around the town with the car dash at 104 or 106 knowing that in reality it's 101 clad, is just something to tell the grand kids. But most of all ... knowing is part of life - and one cannot really know something unless they're there. We can always live vicariously through others but ...there's nothing like first hand accountability. Accept for thunderstorms ... I'm weird about that.. I'd rather be situated out side the CB's impact space so that I can see it's majesty against the back ground, and watch all the nerd cloud parcels bubbling away with electricity dancing inside and out of their nebular plumes. Once underside... it's not that same as the cool appeal of a sideways cob-webbing snowfall, where you start to feel disappointed when you know it's ending. With bangers... I just want to get back into the sun so I can see the cloud again.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Barry looks to have an area that has almost 15 to 20 inches already. So narrow area may work out to have those big amounts, just not as large as some guidance had. Which when you have a system look like this, isn’t that hard to believe. However, for this one storm that didn’t work out quite as planned, I can think of a few others that certainly exceeded what model guidance had. From a rain standpoint, while it didn’t work out with this one, I don’t think it was overhyped considering what model guidance had and past history with tropical systems. Yea not overhyped.??? The WAPO chastised the mayor of New Orleans for not ordering a mandatory evactuation. The hype was way way off the hook . A forecasted 200 miles wide foot plus of rain ended up a fifth of that. How come modeling didn't pick up on the dry air incursion? All in all the Euro performance was excellent 10 days out too from a MCS over Missouri to a TS hitting West La. Awesome job. As we all know qpf is the lowest scoring. I am calling out the frauds who preemptively blamed a TS in July on climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 58 minutes ago, weathafella said: Man I have to retire. Running out of summers..... Best call of my life, well besides winter 2015 calling for Feb 34 to walk in the door, lol. Its amazing just amazing how much I love it. Being my own boss and not on call 365/24 is pretty much now like being a kid time wise. I really think you should give it a try. My perspective changed a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea not overhyped.??? The WAPO chastised the mayor of New Orleans for not ordering a mandatory evactuation. The hype was way way off the hook . A forecasted 200 miles wide foot plus of rain ended up a fifth of that. How come modeling didn't pick up on the dry air incursion? All in all the Euro performance was excellent 10 days out too from a MCS over Missouri to a TS hitting West La. Awesome job. As we all know qpf is the lowest scoring. I am calling out the frauds who preemptively blamed a TS in July on climate Anything that becomes a political talking point becomes so muddied and full of fraudulent nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 75/53 in the valley with shallow Cu dotted across the landscape. Top 10 day, two days in a row of highs in the mid-70s... gonna pay for it by the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’m going to either Spruce peak Stowe early Aug or Newport (for couple nites), i’D Rather Newport ...but I don’t see much potential for surf mid Aug to Mid September is swell season I have video in my old phone of a July 14 big surf day. Heres a pic from that day at my Weekapaug break spot. It happens but yea its August when lifeguarding always got crazy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 Euro edged hotter... Now bringing the dragon's ribbon over our area... This is a bit different than the 00z ..and prior cycles, too, which had that suppressed enough that we edged 18 C's at 850.. hot but not the same as this 22 C look for Saturday. Also, it's decided to wait until tornado Tuesday to evac the air mass change - ... I don't think the trough in SE Canada is right though... Forgetting everything else, that's a typical bully depth by this model in that range/location. Annywho, this run is still offering very little margin for error but gets the heat in here. ... oy. Hey, if we get to Wednesday this time and it's still gung-ho...I'd feel a lot a better about 97 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Bit of difference in model surface temps again, for day 5 on. Until then damn this is perhaps as Hoth said the best day of the year. Went ocean swimming this morning , fresh clams for lunch and in the pool this afternoon with grilled pork chops on the menu for dinner. Jerry ya gotta do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea not overhyped.??? The WAPO chastised the mayor of New Orleans for not ordering a mandatory evactuation. The hype was way way off the hook . A forecasted 200 miles wide foot plus of rain ended up a fifth of that. How come modeling didn't pick up on the dry air incursion? All in all the Euro performance was excellent 10 days out too from a MCS over Missouri to a TS hitting West La. Awesome job. As we all know qpf is the lowest scoring. I am calling out the frauds who preemptively blamed a TS in July on climate I was also questioning that decision from the mayor. His reason? Because it’s not a cat 3. Huh? This was about possible flooding as the MS river floods a fishbowl of a city. It wasn’t overhyped, it was a grave concern. I completely get it. Now it’s not my business to go public with critique, by his reasoning was flawed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 It's dry. 81.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I was also questioning that decision from the mayor. His reason? Because it’s not a cat 3. Huh? This was about possible flooding as the MS river floods a fishbowl of a city. It wasn’t overhyped, it was a grave concern. I completely get it. Now it’s not my business to go public with critique, by his reasoning was flawed. Read the whole statement not what was spoon fed to you by the agenda driven media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I have video in my old phone of a July 14 big surf day. Heres a pic from that day at my Weekapaug break spot. It happens but yea its August when lifeguarding always got crazy. Aluminum foil? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Aluminum foil? Tin hat? Screen cap off a video from 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Tin hat? Screen cap off a video from 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Only thing missing from this summer is a head high surf day. No need for double head high as I couldn't do it with my back. I think I spend so much time in the water now is because it takes the pressure off. But man what a summer day. It was a beaut Clark 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 74/59F up here. Let's lock it in for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 12z UKMET shows 5”-10” of rain across NY, CT, and RI on Thursday. 12z EURO has 1”-3” of rain across the same area. 12z GFS has scattered showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Read the whole statement not what was spoon fed to you by the agenda driven media Easy Trump. I know what was said and what was forecasted. Imo, it wasn’t overhyped when guidance is gung ho. Granted I wasn’t sure of those numbers in a large area, but it wasn’t like someone just pulled shit out of their ass. I drown out the alarmists as that’s not hype, that is misinformation. Same on the other side. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Where the heck is CT Blizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Any posts about the Super Derecho? 24-years ago today! What an event. Woke up about 6:00-6:30 AM that day, wasn't feeling well and go out of bed and went into the living room to turn on The Weather Channel. Waited about a half an hour and went to my mom to see what was up...turned out the cable lineup CHANGED that day. So we found it and BOOM...there it was. Fell in love with t'storms since. CAPE well into the thousands before 7 AM WE NEED SOMETHING LIKE THIS AGAIN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now