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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been a furnace everywhere for everyone in New England. And we haven’t touched the tip yet 

There’s no denying a pattern change.  After the below normal April/May/June, it’s certainly flipped to above normal in the means.  

But we’re in a stretch of 3 solidly below normal days right now after 5 above.  Yo-yo.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I mean dude, this mornings chill followed by hot and dry, gold

We are only +0.7 for July so DIT’s  “furnace” seems a bit of hyperbole. 

Last 2 days are 74/48, 80/43 and today probably 82/46.  

Sunday was -7 departure, Monday -6, today likely -4 or so.  

5 above normal days, 4 below normal days...pretty standard fare up here.

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HHH what about the H

Sing the HHH 

Hazy Hot Humid HHH

Been hanging around this town for too long

Pools beaches, oh look at that thong.

The dude been preaching HHH since April, first date.

Crazy heat came finally in July, Hot, it's summer at any rate 

but what about the H

Dew keeps falling, heat keeps rising, what about the H 

Our gang knows summer better than most

Looks like the H is mostly toast.

If you came here looking for a rhyme get outside its summertime.

Top ten day you will cheer, Hot and clear

But what about the H

 

  • Haha 1
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45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

what really defines a pattern...and to be more specific hot and humid? BDL is just a bizarre place...or heck perhaps even any major airport just b/c the influences of the environment aren't "natural"...but does that make the readings irrelevant?...no. Of course someone who lives in a major city is going to have a differing opinion of the weather than someone living in the hills or a forested location. But if its 96/72 at BDL but only 86/66 at some forested or heavily "veggie" environment the person at BDL is going to say hot/humid while the other is going to differ...so which is correct? 

IMO, the answer comes down to climo of each environment. In retrospect the climo at these locations shouldn't differ by all that much...but let's say BDL is running +6...well in a perfect world that other location should also be running near +6. 

what I'm trying to get at is you can't define these things by the reading of the thermometer but by the anomaly of the event. 

Based on the below map...whether you live deep inside the forest or are tanning on the tarmac since the start of the month its been toasty based on the anomaly of the pattern

 

 

This has undoubtedly been hammered before but ... is that site's instrumentation correct? 

Also ... I was touching on this just a bit ago in this thread, how there seems to be more awareness as to the x's and y's and z's of a "pattern" when there are more obvious modeling cinemas along the way. People seem to respond to pictographic Meteorology ...much more so than data on spread sheets.  It's no knock ...obviously, visual representation is more identifiable ...  Then, the court of public opinion is more in support when in/of that coherency ...than just when having to rely upon actual empirical data to justify.   People don't like hard numbers - beyond having to work to generate any kind of mental impression of what those hard numbers may or may not mean, they often mean something the other than what they want - so... best just ignore them. ( We live in Trump's America ;) )

Case in point, we are in a hot pattern... ...well, for those that need semantic consistency, 'warmer than normal'.  Hence, that product's depiction.  Yet, there's a palpable tenor and tone about the mise-science of this season ( in part my own contribution ) that we're plagued by a lower Maritime trough - probably left over from the more obviously impacting circumstance that leveled at us over a month ago.  The thing is we are... it's just that it's alleviating in recent weeks... But it's a slow death... We're still not exactly showing any matinees from the models that are ballooning historic looking ridges anywhere any time soon... So the 'pictures' still don't really reflect the numbers.   

Of course... we really muddy the waters on that when we consider that the base-line is a curve with a positive slope - which just means... we're slightly more likely to be above normal for any given result - until such time as the Global climate trend is sufficiently offset.  

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

:weenie:

It's tough for verification purposes. 

For example, say looking at crap and go with a SE wind or whatever...the daily climate reports just give highest wind direction which I'm not entirely sure I 100% understand...is it reporting the highest in degrees the wind happened to be that day? Let's say the wind for the most part was 165 on average at about 8 mph...but some flock of birds flew over and the wind shifted to 242 and increased to 12 mph...only the 242 would be listed. STUPID

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There’s no denying a pattern change.  After the below normal April/May/June, it’s certainly flipped to above normal in the means.  

But we’re in a stretch of 3 solidly below normal days right now after 5 above.  Yo-yo.

Maybe up north ... not down here...  

HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS according to the Pre's at NWS ... were modestly negative yesterday, and not prior to that, and won't be today.  It's already nearing 80 and will be nearing 90 this afternoon... if we believe the MOS...   

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's tough for verification purposes. 

For example, say looking at crap and go with a SE wind or whatever...the daily climate reports just give highest wind direction which I'm not entirely sure I 100% understand...is it reporting the highest in degrees the wind happened to be that day? Let's say the wind for the most part was 165 on average at about 8 mph...but some flock of birds flew over and the wind shifted to 242 and increased to 12 mph...only the 242 would be listed. STUPID

Unless its on a graph that you can view, Its just going to be daily highs and lows/max-mins avg's in text form, I don't see how else you can keep the report in short form otherwise.

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48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wish every NWS office would also include resultant wind direction in their daily climate reports. It sucks it just includes highest wind direction. 

 

BOX and GYX do. Who doesn't? NWS El Paso or something? lol

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

This has undoubtedly been hammered before but ... is that site's instrumentation correct? 

Also ... I was touching on this just a bit ago in this thread, how there seems to be more awareness as to the x's and y's and z's of a "pattern" when there are more obvious modeling cinemas along the way. People seem to respond to pictographic Meteorology ...much more so than data on spread sheets.  It's no knock ...obviously, visual representation is more identifiable ...  Then, the court of public opinion is more in support when in/of that coherency ...than just when having to rely upon actual empirical data to justify.   People don't like hard numbers - beyond having to work to generate any kind of mental impression of what those hard numbers may or may not mean, they often mean something the other than what they want - so... best just ignore them. ( We live in Trump's America ;) )

Case in point, we are in a hot pattern... ...well, for those that need semantic consistency, 'warmer than normal'.  Hence, that product's depiction.  Yet, there's a palpable tenor and tone about the mise-science of this season ( in part my own contribution ) that we're plagued by a lower Maritime trough - probably left over from the more obviously impacting circumstance that leveled at us over a month ago.  The thing is we are... it's just that it's alleviating in recent weeks... But it's a slow death... We're still not exactly showing any matinees from the models that are ballooning historic looking ridges anywhere any time soon... So the 'pictures' still don't really reflect the numbers.   

Of course... we really muddy the waters on that when we consider that the base-line is a curve with a positive slope - which is means... you're slightly more likely to be above normal - until such time as the Global climate trend is sufficiently offset.  

I agree...we are in a hot pattern and how I guess an individual wants to define that is up to them but at the end of the day there needs to be a scientific distinction of the term. Peak climo at places like BDL (~86 I think it may be?), BOS (maybe 84?) ORH (maybe 82?). So when these sights are pushing ~90+ for BDL; 86-88+ for BOS; and close to 85 for ORH...it's hot. 

 

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31 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Unless its on a graph that you can view, Its just going to be daily highs and lows/max-mins avg's in text form, I don't see how else you can keep the report in short form otherwise.

I would think it would be easily possible. From what I udnerstand much of the data comes from ASOS stations anyway so being able to compute an average shouldn't be difficult. 

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BOX and GYX do. Who doesn't? NWS El Paso or something? lol

PHI

BGM

FWD

TAE

OKX

FSD

HGX

IND

VEF

EAX

MEG

LOT

LMK

PAFC

 

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Maybe up north ... not down here...  

HFD/ORH/PVD/BOS according to the Pre's at NWS ... were modestly negative yesterday, and not prior to that, and won't be today.  It's already nearing 80 and will be nearing 90 this afternoon... if we believe the MOS...   

Yeah different ballgame up here I guess and seems like it has been for months.  

More muted positive departures and deeper negative ones.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would think it would be easily possible. From what I udnerstand much of the data comes from ASOS stations anyway so being able to compute an average shouldn't be difficult. 

PHI

BGM

FWD

TAE

OKX

FSD

HGX

IND

VEF

EAX

MEG

LOT

LMK

PAFC

 

:weenie:

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah different ballgame up here I guess and seems like it has been for months.  

More muted positive departures and deeper negative ones.

right - it's almost like we're still getting the same gradient pattern ... but the summer version.   Only here, we're not talking about snow vs rain, cold versus 32.1 rain... but proximal cooling degree days.

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30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right - it's almost like we're still getting the same gradient pattern ... but the summer version.   Only here, we're not talking about snow vs rain, cold versus 32.1 rain... but proximal cooling degree days.

Yeah good point, almost like the hangover from winter.  Not only are the normals lower up here than areas to the south, but the departures have been cooler too... so that already baked in climo gradient from south to north seems even further magnified.

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81/56, wow. Went to town and saw people lunching outside, runners running, dogs walking, landscapers landscaping...in the middle of a mid summer day no less. I even overheard the supply house guy tell his customer how great low humidity weather is for business as people are more active around their homes.

Another CoC summer day, check. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

81/56, wow. Went to town and saw people lunching outside, runners running, dogs walking, landscapers landscaping...in the middle of a mid summer day no less. I even overheard the supply house guy tell his customer how great low humidity weather is for business as people are more active around their homes.

Another CoC summer day, check. 

this

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