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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

Kind of sad to be noticeably losing light.   

So many hypocrites on this bb.  Who amongst you won’t extoll the deep winter days of snow cover, deep blue skies, and temperatures well below freezing.  Do you think that’s comfortable?   Do you enjoy the super dry skin cracking indoor heat?   Yet many of the same folks make fun of us who enjoy the warm season HHH.   

I happen to marvel at both phenomena and love wx extremes cold and hot.

Yes layers allow you to regulate. I would be outside doing something but how many were outside mowing their lawn or doing physical work Sat afternoon 95/75. How the fuk does that make anyone a hypocrite. Dry skin, lol ok Mrs Avenno you got us there 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes layers allow you to regulate. I would be outside doing something but how many were outside mowing their lawn or doing physical work Sat afternoon 95/75. How the fuk does that make anyone a hypocrite. Dry skin, lol ok Mrs Avenno you got us there 

Swampazz, skeeters, black flies, midges, ticks, and deer flies pretty much ruin my outdoor chores. 75F with a breeze does not. All we ask for are summers of yore. Tolerable humidity with alternating shots of heat and cool air to keep the swampazz critters in check.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

There's probably more people that want dews than those that want winter right now. Just because we like 78/48 it doesn't mean we want winter.

Right.  What;s wrong with temps dropping into the 50s in the pre-dawn hours and warning into the upper 70s during the day.  Ideal living conditions.

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Fantastic difference between the 00z and the 06z in the extended... 

Firstly, the 00z Euro, GGEM and GFS operationals with a full on SW heat expulsion event signaled for the "highly confident"day 10 range. 

The GFS version of that would be particularly nasty, too, because it infuses the dragon tongue conveyor into the NW circulation envelope of a WAR signal..  That's like taking 101 F stand alone air/EML mixing potential and infusing it with 70+ DPs ...  We're deep into evapotransporation season anyway? So, the continent would exhale moisture into a SW release event - should that come to pass like that blend, which is still longer odds ...  - but having a 594 ridge node of that scale and working into the M/A with concomitant curved surface pressure pattern indicative of higher pressure S ...ooph.  I mean, there can be puffs of SW released air that don't benefit from WAR...and vice versa...each can be miserable in their own regard, but success in any such vision/set up from 00z would be nasty. 

Then came the 06z GFS ... December.  Really ...this model and cycle somehow just forgets what season we are in ...bucking for a veritable 'shot across the bow' before July 20th of any given years is sort of absurd - though I know there are those on here that'll use their typical razor sharp objective insight to galoot and spin summer as though it's not happening ever again ...  heh.  

I dunno... Thing is, we ride a tightrope in a sense. It seems GW is beginning to have an effectiveness on the baseline circulation ...particularly as driven on our side of the northern hemisphere.  We seem to have a default nodal trough over eastern Canada... perhaps as a longer term wave-frequency/mass-balancing for the Pac surplus both sea and air that's being perpetually dumped into the perennial PNAP structure over N/A.  That structure features a flat ridge in the west...and a zonal/trough escape westerlies back east...  That's called the Perennial North American Pattern, not to be mistaken with the PNA, which is abbreviating Pacific - North American.   In this context...the former is sort of "stuck" in a positive mode, which enhances the western ridge, eastern trough. 

Now ...an astute observer may be inclined to say that the western/GB heights have been tending to sink ...and you'd be right... but that's the "tightroping" ...  It's like, that pattern would be that much more amplified if it were not for whatever is driving the offset pattern/negative superposition.  Which I really wonder if that's related to the deep solar nadir stuff.   These are two vying larger scale canvases.   So suppositional thinking ...but, I see two disparate tendencies playing tug of war.  The irony is, the GW is the one that want's to make us cooler relative to the global thermal realization ...  while the pattern off-set would have heights more WAR like...  The end result of all that is more temperate.. 

Interesting... but, that means it can break either way...  I don't think solutions like the 06z are in themselves impossible in a "default SE/-E Canadian nodal trough" canvas... but, the continuity is abysmal.  It's more likely the model loses one or the other signal and is sensitive to the alternative.  

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28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Name names

HA! 

You must be out yo' mind -  'name names'  ....that'd end well in this sort of format... 

No, just bustin' ballz cuz Jerry was musing about the 'hypocrite' thing - which in the past, whether it is hypocrisy or not, those folks that kept wistfully remarking how the day's "thankfully" start getting short in just three weeks back when we were still suffering a putrid cool/misty/cloudy end of May and hadn't really had any heat at all ... that's not really open to another interpretation.  Names aside

But, we be humans yo '... and one thing's for certain ... humanity runs on the fuels of individual preferences... :) 

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different people like different times of the year, and different types of weather.

some prefer summer, some prefer winter, and some enjoy all 4 seasons. 

some don't enjoy the particular type of weather that you enjoy

what an interesting concept.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Last summer we didn’t have nights like last night.  

43F for a low.  

House was frigid, lol.  Wife not pleased.  It was like 57F inside.

61 here with a slight NNE wind off the water, so no radiation. However, it's paying off now with great temps. 

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8 minutes ago, alex said:

Woke up to 38F. Sweltering. :lol:

LOL, brutal, just brutal.  I’m guessing you tried that novel approach that PF mentioned of just opening and closing various windows and doors to regulate the temperature of the house?  I tried it last night and it seemed like it worked.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

61 here with a slight NNE wind off the water, so no radiation. However, it's paying off now with great temps. 

Honestly this is the best type of summer pattern.  Go a few hot and humid days and then mix in a couple 70s/40s before it ramps back up to hotter.  

A good yo-yo pattern for summer.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly this is the best type of summer pattern.  Go a few hot and humid days and then mix in a couple 70s/40s before it ramps back up to hotter.  

A good yo-yo pattern for summer.

I do think it's going to be a more persistent warmer and dewy look after mid week this week. Better chance of more cool downs N and E. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do think it's going to be a more persistent warmer and dewy look after mid week this week. Better chance of more cool downs N and E. 

Yeah fits with climo and pretty much always expect a good 3-4 week period of more consistent heat/dews.  I feel like every summer now we do run a more lengthy mid-summer +2 type run (+4 for torch spots like BTV).  

However we’ve been having very persistent pattern of cooler air intrusions for months now.  Though obviously up this way and over to Tamarack can be a different beast than say south of the Pike when it comes to consistent heat/dews.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes layers allow you to regulate. I would be outside doing something but how many were outside mowing their lawn or doing physical work Sat afternoon 95/75. How the fuk does that make anyone a hypocrite. Dry skin, lol ok Mrs Avenno you got us there 

I’ll see if you’re walking around when it’s 17 out and windy.  For the record, I did yard work Saturday followed by a brisk walk.  Loved it!  Hoping for more HHH soon.

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah fits with climo and pretty much always expect a good 3-4 week period of more consistent heat/dews.  I feel like every summer now we do run a more lengthy mid-summer +2 type run (+4 for torch spots like BTV).  

However we’ve been having very persistent pattern of cooler air intrusions for months now.  Though obviously up this way and over to Tamarack can be a different beast than say south of the Pike when it comes to consistent heat/dews.

68.5 with some clouds now. Probably may take the under on temps here if clouds persist. 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah fits with climo and pretty much always expect a good 3-4 week period of more consistent heat/dews.  I feel like every summer now we do run a more lengthy mid-summer +2 type run (+4 for torch spots like BTV).  

However we’ve been having very persistent pattern of cooler air intrusions for months now.  Though obviously up this way and over to Tamarack can be a different beast than say south of the Pike when it comes to consistent heat/dews.

A lot of what you mention is climo.  The further north you go the less frequent heat & humidity get.  It's all about the wave heights.

The next 30 days are peak climo for me, all within a degree though it starts tailing off after the 24th.  My long term average is 80/58 right now and peaks at 81/59.  I think we're going to average AN but I do agree that we'll see some intrusions of BN like yesterday which is a contrast to last summer.  I don't think it will go down as the summer of HHH like last year but rather the summer of CHSH (clear, hot, sometimes humid) lol

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ll see if you’re walking around when it’s 17 out and windy.  For the record, I did yard work Saturday followed by a brisk walk.  Loved it!  Hoping for more HHH soon.

I always make a point of doing stuff outside even when it's really cold.  Wind does make it hard but I'll still go out.  I enjoy those conditions like you enjoy the HHH conditions.  I appreciate both because without the HHH weather, I probably wouldn't appreciate the arctic conditions when they come.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could be fairly active across E SNE Friday afternoon. Lots of torrential downpours with thunder/lightning. Maybe a few wet microbursts. Flash flooding threat definitely there

Need some stuff like DC this morning. DCA got 3.30" in one hour.

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