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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is just for the general reader:   This is like the new normal ...  "+1"  ...  

Obviously, there's a more exacting decimal value... but, with the background global thing ...every location everywhere runs a flat probability, however large or small, of averaging above normal, for every interval of time being evaluated.  GW inuits that is a positive result.   

That's basically just the math of everywhere being an climate curve with an upward angled slope.  Relative to that slope... a 0.0 month is actually below normal (hmm ...that'll scratch some heads). 

I think there will some sticker shock after next year, when the cold and snow-starved 1981-90 decade gets kicked off the 30-year norms and 1991-2020 (so far*) takes its place.  Bear in mind that the difference between 1981-90 and 2011-20 is 3X the difference in 30-year averages (actually, a bit more than that, as the current decade has 8.5 years of record rather than 10.).
Some comparisons, north to south:

CAR         Ann.T   DJF.T  Precip   Snow
1981-10   39.87   13.99   38.73  111.90
1991-20* 40.38   14.65   40.94  118.71

Farm(ME) Ann.T   DJF.T  Precip   Snow
1981-10   42.28   18.58   48.37   86.68
1991-20* 42.93   19.57   49.41   92.40

BOS         Ann.T   DJF.T  Precip   Snow
1981-10   51.76   32.12   43.93   44.29
1991-20* 52.12   32.57   43.42   50.66

 

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25 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I think there will some sticker shock after next year, when the cold and snow-starved 1981-90 decade gets kicked off the 30-year norms and 1991-2020 (so far*) takes its place.  Bear in mind that the difference between 1981-90 and 2011-20 is 3X the difference in 30-year averages (actually, a bit more than that, as the current decade has 8.5 years of record rather than 10.).
Some comparisons, north to south:

CAR         Ann.T   DJF.T  Precip   Snow
1981-10   39.87   13.99   38.73  111.90
1991-20* 40.38   14.65   40.94  118.71

Farm(ME) Ann.T   DJF.T  Precip   Snow
1981-10   42.28   18.58   48.37   86.68
1991-20* 42.93   19.57   49.41   92.40

BOS         Ann.T   DJF.T  Precip   Snow
1981-10   51.76   32.12   43.93   44.29
1991-20* 52.12   32.57   43.42   50.66

 

It's a good point actually....  I mean, human-based conceits and science loves to create blocks and margins out of a reality that is really liquid... There's really more like paradigm 'nodes' with overlap region in reality. These nodes have faded/amorphous boundaries where it just sort of becomes the new new adjacent paradigm with a silent transition between - that's what really delineates typology.  Blurred lines... 

Anyway, sparing a glassy-eyed babble. It does make one wonder if/when they transition into the new weighted block of time, if there may be some interesting norm to anomaly relationships noted -

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4 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s your torch. +20 to +30 departure from norm. 

hahaha... 

'Magine Boston being +30 on July 3rd... It'd be like 108 for a high and a low of 84 .... more like Phoenix. I don't know if the sun can even transmit enough radiation for that around here.  We'd need it to be almost 30 C at 850 mb probably... 

You know what it hearkens to really ...  how/why the arctic regions are warming faster than the lower and middle latitudes in the planetary integration of GW.  The arctic is empirically measured to warming much more comparing to regions < 60 N. I wow factor that big media has no compunctions about shock jocking the hoi polloi into buying publications over, either... 

It may be counter-intuitive, but ... that is so, because those northern regions have physically more room to rise.  I guess it's like turning an up from the last possible setting for 450 to broil; the equator is 450 already. The earth can only house broil. So those regions can only differentiate upwards so far...  But, we can certainly move heat N and use feebler sun to warm it that much more, and the two together can mean giant swings.  

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30 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Grilled steak and mushrooms for dinner tonight.

 90° downtown 86 at my house, quintessential summer day. 

Ooh... couple of stout Guinness' and you'll be set up good and proper with a nasty hobbling gout attack by sun up

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ooh... couple of stout Guinness' and you'll be set up good and proper with a nasty hobbling gout attack by sun up

Nah,  plenty of greens and fruits to alkalize my blood. as far as Beer goes, I work in a brewery my body has a developed great tolerance  for all things water, malt hops and yeast.   The funny thing is, if you drink in moderation the alcohol probably isn't nearly as bad for you as dumping copious amounts of hops and yeast in your gut with some of those big IPAs.

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hahaha... 

'Magine Boston being +30 on July 3rd... It'd be like 108 for a high and a low of 84 .... more like Phoenix. I don't know if the sun can even transmit enough radiation for that around here.  We'd need it to be almost 30 C at 850 mb probably... 

You know what it hearkens to really ...  how/why the arctic regions are warming faster than the lower and middle latitudes in the planetary integration of GW.  The arctic is empirically measured to warming much more comparing to regions < 60 N. I wow factor that big media has no compunctions about shock jocking the hoi polloi into buying publications over, either... 

It may be counter-intuitive, but ... that is so, because those northern regions have physically more room to rise.  I guess it's like turning an up from the last possible setting for 450 to broil; the equator is 450 already. The earth can only house broil. So those regions can only differentiate upwards so far...  But, we can certainly move heat N and use feebler sun to warm it that much more, and the two together can mean giant swings.  

If you apply more heat to the desert, it’s still a fokin desert....Nothing changes. But if you apply heat to the poles, look out. 

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10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Nah,  plenty of greens and fruits to alkalize my blood. as far as Beer goes, I work in a brewery my body has a developed great tolerance  for all things water, malt hops and yeast.   The funny thing is, if you drink in moderation the alcohol probably isn't nearly as bad for you as dumping copious amounts of hops and yeast in your gut with some of those big IPAs.

If one has elevated uric acid by some sort of either congenital condition or compromised renal function, fruits and greens/alkalinity doesn't offset.   You may not be one of those types... hopefully :) but, if you have elevated uric levels and you elevate your blood alcohol, that impedes both kidney uric evacuation capacity, regardless...  It's all a matter of whether one's base-line is elevated or not.  But you can take a normal uric level person and get them to a gout attack with alcoholism and a bad diet... and you can drive a gout sufferer mad by living a squeaky clean life style and still they get attacks.  

Having said that, grilled steak and mushrooms are like number 2 on the gout checklist ...regardless of whether you have issues with it innately.  But so long as you're doing that... I'd throw in a couple table spoons of minced garlic and a quarter cup of soi-sauce as a marinade - ...man.  That's fuggin yummy

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Just now, dendrite said:

I wonder when GYX plans on fixing CON. More climo data down the porcelain goddess. :(

n/m...should've checked the AFD.

.EQUIPMENT...
The Concord, NH ASOS was affected by thunderstorms on Sunday.
Unfortunately it may be a few more days before parts arrive to
fix the system. During the outage, TAFs will continue to be
issued for Concord without amendments scheduled. Climate data
for Concord will also be affected, although backup sources may
be used to fill in data after the fact. The outage is likely to
continue until the end of the week.
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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’ve probably got the wrong station loaded....

word...I forgot to up that statement - was looking at BED ...where it's now just shy of 33 C ...so their besting 90. 

may want to watch for a breeze flip.  I mean the < 10 kts is not a deep layer considering the synoptics, so if the wind flips around they'll bounce there easily - sometimes that happens late on days like this.  I once saw it go from 76 to 94 at Logan almost immediately -

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

word...I forgot to up that statement - was looking at BED ...where it's now just shy of 33 C ...so their besting 90. 

may want to watch for a breeze flip.  I mean the < 10 kts is not a deep layer considering the synoptics, so if the wind flips around they'll bounce there easily - sometimes that happens late on days like this.  I once saw it go from 76 to 94 at Logan almost immediately -

Yup.  I’m at 89 10 miles away.

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27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Let's lock that euro run in. Warm, but nothing excessive.

It is an agreeable run relative to trends and other indicators, yeah... 

It's also better in that D6-9 range where/whence prior runs stressed climate and reality a bit beyond the pale to put it mildly ... although the total x-coordinate of the wave lengths a little long if picking hairs...

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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

n/m...should've checked the AFD.


.EQUIPMENT...
The Concord, NH ASOS was affected by thunderstorms on Sunday.
Unfortunately it may be a few more days before parts arrive to
fix the system. During the outage, TAFs will continue to be
issued for Concord without amendments scheduled. Climate data
for Concord will also be affected, although backup sources may
be used to fill in data after the fact. The outage is likely to
continue until the end of the week.

image.png.8b69d7a6e5e1fb1eff84e417c08cc420.png

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