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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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58 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Theres going to be wind damage here in Jersey City with this second storm. Radar indicated downburst. Im about a 2 mi west of the worst of it. Hearing tons of sirens already

I saw a small area of max velocities around 40 mph w/ that second storm. There is always a risk these pulsing cells produce a downburst/microburst when they collapse, but you can't just warn every thunderstorm out there.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

I saw a small area of max velocities around 40 mph w/ that second storm. There is always a risk these pulsing cells produce a downburst/microburst when they collapse, but you can't just warn every thunderstorm out there.

Oh no doubt. That warning for the first storm definitely wasn't needed. OKX has always been trigger happy. Turned on the scanner and heard reports of a sinking/overturned boat off Liberty State Park in Jersey City, also report of a downed tree that fell onto a house.

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3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

there is a shot today, which HRRR has mostly been totally clueless about. there is some dry air and a warm layer aloft, but neither of these is sufficient to prevent isolated cells. already seeing some well inland, but the seabreeze fronts will focus a few nearby. only about a 20% chance for anyone in the city to see one, higher chances over eastern LI, CT, Hudson Valley and parts of NJ. 

take the weather you see over western PA and upstate today, and put it squarely over us tomorrow. looks like numerous storms in the afternoon hours as the weakening front/trough approach.

as soon as we hit the convective temp the area will fill in. no cap and a moist profile

image.thumb.png.359f82bfa130d52290ee36b92e9cac11.png

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Wind damage report from the earlier North Shore storms. Hail report from News12

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1156289066771603456

At 1:53 PM EDT, Rocky Point [Suffolk Co, NY] PUBLIC reports TSTM WND DMG. TREES DOWN ON ROCKY POINT BUSINESS DISTRICT BYPASS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1156262345041223682

Impressive hail from a storm in Rocky Point this afternoon taken by Susan Blake
 

 

 

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Driving around the area today I saw temps as high as 98 on the east side of Danbury to as low as 91 in more well forested areas, generally it was 93/94. Looks like it just rained over there by KDXR but it has been dry so far here 13 miles west of that station. I know Forky said when we hit the convective temp we fill in but what are the chances of that happening at this point? I see the line of storms out to the west making slow progress this way, will that be the trigger?

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52 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Driving around the area today I saw temps as high as 98 on the east side of Danbury to as low as 91 in more well forested areas, generally it was 93/94. Looks like it just rained over there by KDXR but it has been dry so far here 13 miles west of that station. I know Forky said when we hit the convective temp we fill in but what are the chances of that happening at this point? I see the line of storms out to the west making slow progress this way, will that be the trigger?

He's referring to tomorrow.

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The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. In response, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days.

High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 64°; Kangerlussuaq: 66°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 59°; Nuuk: 55°; and, Thule: 61°.

Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled.

Earlier today, record low readings included: Kirkenes Lufthaven, Norway: 41°; Kuopio, Finland: 45°; Mikkeli, Finland: 39°; Saratov, Russia: 50°; and, Utti, Finland: 45° (tied daily record).

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.9°-65.2°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +9.91 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.793. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.

Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August.

On July 29, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.600 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.621.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.5°-79.7° (3.0° to 3.2° above normal).

August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month.

Finally, there is a chance that Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 6 million square kilometers on the July 30 or 31 reading. The earliest figure below 6 million square kilometers occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers.

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4 hours ago, Cfa said:

Official heat wave....90, 91, 92. Barely noticeable after the 115+ degree heat indices the weekend before last, 90 feels very average.

No it wasn’t it was disturbing disgusting than and it was real disgusting today. Regardless summer peaked so we’ll keep getting heat but it will subside each wave. We’ve got some cooler air coming in at least for the next week. No 90’s

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