dWave Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare. I'll be in ocean city, MD later this week, I'll see what its like there. Also, dont know if it's related but the water in lower Manhattan around wall st, south st seaport etc is higher than usual today. Its actually spilling over in spots on to the area under the FDR btwn the seaport and ferry terminals. Tourists splashing around in little waves of ankle deep water...not something I'd recommend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: 90.9F here today and up to 9 90F days (8 JUL 1 JUN). 93° here today...up to 14, 90° days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare. So now you’ve got me curious. Long period swells from the Southern Hemisphere? Where did you read that, I’ve never heard that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland over the next several days. In response to the warmth that will likely exceed 3 sigma, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days. Records included: Copenhagen-Roskilde: 86°; Kristiansund, Norway: 84°; Molde, Norway: 84°; Orland Iii, Norway: 84°; Orsta-Volda, Norway: 84°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 86°; Trondheim, Norway: 90°; and, Vigra, Norway: 82°. In addition, high temperatures in Greenland included 64° at Ilulissat and 66° at Kangerlussuaq. Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled. Earlier today, Vadso, Norway registered a daily record low temperature of 41°. Near record low readings were also recorded at a few locations elsewhere in Scandinavia and also in France. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.8°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +9.23 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.817. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.619 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.752. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.3°-79.7° (2.8° to 3.2° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, the UK Met Office validated the July 25 reading of 38.7°C (102°F) at the Cambridge University Botanic Garden as a new national high temperature record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 I wonder if we'll get down to 2007 ice levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 7/29 TEB: 96 EWR: 94 LGA: 94 BLM: 94 ACY: 94 New Bnswk: 93 PHL: 93 TTN: 91 NYC: 90 ISP: 89 JFK: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 9PM hot in the city LGA: 90 EWR: 88 TEB: 88 NYC: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 hours ago, tdp146 said: So now you’ve got me curious. Long period swells from the Southern Hemisphere? Where did you read that, I’ve never heard that before. I first noticed it way back in July 2003. We had a solid week of powerful surging waves that seemingly came out of nowhere. Minor beach wash overs and swell periods of 20-17 seconds, something completely unheard of on the east coast. I looked around the North Atlantic and there was no tropical activity or storms at all. I figured it had to have come from a huge storm the week before that was unusually far north in the Southern Hemisphere. So I sent a question to Sean Collins the founder of Surfline and the king of surf forecasting. He sent me back a response on their “who knows” detailing the storm that caused the swell and how it’s entirely possible given the right circumstances. They have been talking about this current swell on their premium subscription forecasts for over a week now!!! We have had several smaller events since 03 but this is the only other that stacks up. Check out the swell periods on the NY Harbor Buoy. There are our typical local wind waves with the periods below 10 seconds and then the southern hemi swells with the periods over 13 seconds. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 91 still in Harlem. 78 at home, high was 91. Yesterday hit 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 10PM LGA: 89 EWR: 87 NYC: 86 TEB: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 57 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I first noticed it way back in July 2003. We had a solid week of powerful surging waves that seemingly came out of nowhere. Minor beach wash overs and swell periods of 20-17 seconds, something completely unheard of on the east coast. I looked around the North Atlantic and there was no tropical activity or storms at all. I figured it had to have come from a huge storm the week before that was unusually far north in the Southern Hemisphere. So I sent a question to Sean Collins the founder of Surfline and the king of surf forecasting. He sent me back a response on their “who knows” detailing the storm that caused the swell and how it’s entirely possible given the right circumstances. They have been talking about this current swell on their premium subscription forecasts for over a week now!!! We have had several smaller events since 03 but this is the only other that stacks up. Check out the swell periods on the NY Harbor Buoy. There are our typical local wind waves with the periods below 10 seconds and then the southern hemi swells with the periods over 13 seconds. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 I’ll be in Montauk tomorrow. I’ll check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I first noticed it way back in July 2003. We had a solid week of powerful surging waves that seemingly came out of nowhere. Minor beach wash overs and swell periods of 20-17 seconds, something completely unheard of on the east coast. I looked around the North Atlantic and there was no tropical activity or storms at all. I figured it had to have come from a huge storm the week before that was unusually far north in the Southern Hemisphere. So I sent a question to Sean Collins the founder of Surfline and the king of surf forecasting. He sent me back a response on their “who knows” detailing the storm that caused the swell and how it’s entirely possible given the right circumstances. They have been talking about this current swell on their premium subscription forecasts for over a week now!!! We have had several smaller events since 03 but this is the only other that stacks up. Check out the swell periods on the NY Harbor Buoy. There are our typical local wind waves with the periods below 10 seconds and then the southern hemi swells with the periods over 13 seconds. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Pretty cool. Up to 16 seconds at times. I look at the buoys often but would have just glossed right over that this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 2 hours ago, TriPol said: I wonder if we'll get down to 2007 ice levels. I suspect that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4 million square kilometers, which would be lower than the 2007 minimum. However, it will probably remain above the 2012 record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 High for the day yesterday was 95 here. Current temp 81/DP 70/RH 69% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Starting off mild at 75° this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 4:53 AM, donsutherland1 said: I think LGA has perhaps the best chance, along with EWR to reach 100 today. JFK might make a run at it. Central Park will probably fall a few degrees short. We did hit 100 here on Sunday and the HI was 118, hottest day in quite a few years! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 10:03 AM, sferic said: 99.5 was the max did you go a degree higher the next day? I did and reached 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 12:12 PM, psv88 said: Impressive event for LI. Yesterday’s 99 was hottest temp I’ve recorded on any pws of mine, since I got my first one in 2012. 4 years of records out here in Suffolk, the other 3 in western Nassau (highest there was 98) Did you have it set up in 2010 and 2011? In 2010 we exceeded 100 on three days and in 2011 we reached 104! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 3:03 PM, bluewave said: JFK approaching its all-time heat index record. Currently sitting at 114 degrees. 97/78/114 Kennedy Intl FAIR 97 78 54 SW16 29.78F HX 114 what is there all time heat index record? I assume it's from 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 4:51 PM, purduewx80 said: looks like it was just W enough to have little trajectory over the bay over the past 30 min. any farther north and it would probably be 100 there. Indeed- we reached 100 here and I'm a few miles east of JFK and dont get the bay influence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 5:07 PM, jm1220 said: Station just west of me in West Hills reached 101. Had a brief shower just earlier. Could you imagine having rain fall at 101 degrees?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 4:24 PM, bluewave said: Some of the equipment may have been moved as early as 1992. That is the first mention of obstructions. NYC was very close with Newark for warm season high temperatures during the 1970’s and 1980’s. It was even a warmer spot than LGA on numerous occasions. But things really shifted after the 1990’s. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00094728/detail Topography Descriptions TOPOGRAPHY BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ HIGHEST POINT IN CENTRAL PARK. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDED BY SKYSCRAPERS ON ALL SIDES, HIGHEST TO SOUTH. HEAVILY POPULATED. HUDSON RIVER IS LOCATED 1 MILE WEST. EQUIPMENT IS LOCATED ON A STONE BASE IN A FENCED IN ENCLOSURE WITH TREES ON ALL SIDES JUST SOUTH OF BELVEDERE CASTLE. 2017-08-01 Present HIGHEST POINT IN CENTRAL PARK. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDED BY SKYSCRAPERS ON ALL SIDES, HIGHEST TO SOUTH. HEAVILY POPULATED. HUDSON RIVER IS LOCATED 1 MILE WEST. EQUIPMENT IS LOCATED ON A STONE BASE IN A FENCED IN ENCLOSURE WITH TREES ON ALL SIDES JUST SOUTH OF BELVEDERE CASTLE. 2016-06-15 2017-08-01 HIGHEST POINT IN CENTRAL PARK. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT. HEAVILY POPULATED. HUDSON RIVER 1 MI WEST 1992-01-01 2016-06-15 Obstruction Descriptions OBSTRUCTIONS BEGIN DATE¹ END DATE¹ TREES 2017-08-01 Present TREE 020-340 deg 25-25 ft 20-54 deg 2016-06-15 2017-08-01 HYGR 090/4 TREES ENCIRLCE/25/20-54 IN FENCED ENCOLSURE 50 FT X 25 TH 1995-06-27 2016-06-15 UNIV 050/4 CRS 180/9 H083 SENSOR 200/8 TB 220/20 TREES ENCIRCLE/25/20-54 EQUIPMENT IN FENCED ENCLOSURE 50 FEET X 25 FEET 1992-01-01 So the real reason for moving the equipment was to stop the vandalism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 On 7/21/2019 at 4:40 PM, bluewave said: Here is a great article that explains how LGA was often cooler than Central Park back in the 1970’s. I didn’t realize how much vandalism was an issue for the weather station at the castle. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html Vandalism Disrupts Work “Mostly we suffer from malicious destruction,” Mr. Gibson said. “The problem up here can be as little as somebody pulling a circuit‐breaker switch that stops the current and halts the measurements. But from our standpoint, that's almost as bad as stealing all the equipment—it disrupts our work.” The last break‐in occurred two weeks ago. The thermometer was not damaged, but the anemometer, which meastures wind speeds, was stolen, and other equipment has not functioned properly since. When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park. Thats a real shame. Instead of moving the equipment, maybe they should have fenced off part of the park with barbed wire and electric fencing and made it inaccessible to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 The extreme temps in 2011 show that it's indeed possible to have historic heat waves in the middle of a very wet year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Last 2 days of July are averaging 82degs., or 5.5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[79.4]. July should end at +3.1[79.6]. 77.9* here at 6am. Finally 80.0* by 10am. 82.2* by Noon, but down from 84.5* minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 The Central Park site is sheltered to the north by the Belvedere Castle and surrounded by deciduous trees and shrubs. I'd think both temperature and wind measurements there would be impacted. There is additional instrumentation mounted on the Castle, but for what purpose is not known. I personally think the site is foolishly hostile to visitors, hiding in the shrubbery, unmarked and behind a chain link fence, with various instruments resting on a crushed stone base. It almost invites vandalism. The siting seems especially poor considering that this is a also place where literally millions of kids and other visitors pass by annually. A little bit of signage to document what the instrumentation is used for and perhaps some training of the volunteer guides that work at the Castle would be much more protective of the instrumentation and help spark interest and understanding among the public. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 58 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Last 2 days of July are averaging 82degs., or 5.5degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[79.4]. July should end at +3.1[79.6]. 77.9* here at 6am. Should have been 80.0+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 42 minutes ago, etudiant said: The Central Park site is sheltered to the north by the Belvedere Castle and surrounded by deciduous trees and shrubs. I'd think both temperature and wind measurements there would be impacted. There is additional instrumentation mounted on the Castle, but for what purpose is not known. I personally think the site is foolishly hostile to visitors, hiding in the shrubbery, unmarked and behind a chain link fence, with various instruments resting on a crushed stone base. It almost invites vandalism. The siting seems especially poor considering that this is a also place where literally millions of kids and other visitors pass by annually. A little bit of signage to document what the instrumentation is used for and perhaps some training of the volunteer guides that work at the Castle would be much more protective of the instrumentation and help spark interest and understanding among the public. Yes they should have someone there 24/7 to protect it. I wonder if there's a way to permanently mount it so it can never be moved? Once they get it back to where it used to be, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 30, 2019 Author Share Posted July 30, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Thats a real shame. Instead of moving the equipment, maybe they should have fenced off part of the park with barbed wire and electric fencing and made it inaccessible to the public. It looks like the old thermometer was located on the castle in the sunlight before the 1990’s. That’s why NYC had more 90 days before the 1990’s than after. High temperatures on the castle were often warmer than LGA and very close to Newark. But putting the thermometer under the thick canopy and vegetation around November 95 caused an artificial decline in high temperatures. So we really can’t compare pre-1995 temperature data with post. Here is another NYT article about when the thermometer in the castle got vandalized in 1977. They had to start taking temperatures at LGA for a while. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/12/31/archives/castle-is-secure-but-weathermen-are-still-moving.html Vandals’ destruction of equipment in the castle had disrupted the Weather Service's collection of meteorological data so frequently that the service had decided not to bother with repairing the station after a particularly severe incident of vandalism two months ago, Instead, the service took all its temperatures at an alternative station at La Guardia Airport in Queens, 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 80/72, which was the low, another 80 degree night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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