weathermedic Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Stratus and fog rolling in to Breezy Point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 9 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Stratus and fog rolling in to Breezy Point humid air on the move north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Really need some good rain tomorrow on the uws. Things are really drying out now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2019 Author Share Posted July 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Really need some good rain tomorrow on the uws. Things are really drying out now. It’s a good thing the low cloud deck marine layer in LB held off until after the 4th. It also looks like the dredging and beach extension created a very long sandbar. http://www.lbsurf.org/surf-camera-report/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Not sure this was posted: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: humid air on the move north.... Nasty day today. Sweating buckets after an hour of work in the yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 Pretty uncomfortable evening out there. Current temp 81/DP 75/RH 79% High for the day was 84 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 5, 2019 Share Posted July 5, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s a good thing the low cloud deck marine layer in LB held off until after the 4th. It also looks like the dredging and beach extension created a very long sandbar. http://www.lbsurf.org/surf-camera-report/ Was there and can confirm that, I was wayy out in mid calf deep water. Later in the day not as dramatic, had to head back closer to shore, didnt want to get stuck out there. I never knew long beach for that so didnt know what to make of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 As a cold front slices through the region later tomorrow, there will be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. The greatest risk appears likely over a portion of New England this time around. Nevertheless, much of the region has a chance of experiencing a strong thunderstorm with heavy downpours and possibly gusty winds. Meanwhile, the historic heat continues parts of Alaska. As of 4 pm AKD, Anchorage had a high temperature of 81°. That broke the previous daily record of 77°, which was set in 1999. Anchorage has now set or tied daily record high temperatures on 8 of the last 13 days. Anchorage has also had five days on which the temperature reached 80° or above. The previous record was four days, which was set in 2015. Yesterday's high temperature in Anchorage was 90°. That was that city's first-ever 90° reading and it smashed the previous all-time record high temperature of 85°, which was set back on June 14, 1969. To put things into a statistical perspective, that reading was nearly 5.8 standard deviations above the normal high (1989-2018 base to reflect Anchorage's rapid ongoing warming). The previous all-time record high was equivalent to a 106° temperature in New York City (the current record there). The new figure is the equivalent of a 112° temperature. Through 4 pm AKD Anchorage currently has a mean temperature of 68.8° for the past 7 days. Prior to 2019, the 7-day record high average was 66.4°, which was set during the July 19-25, 2013 period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving. The SOI was -3.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.232. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and continue beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On July 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.406 (RMM). The July 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.111. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.5° in New York City. That would be the 27th warmest first 10 days of July since daily records were first kept back in 1869. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 56%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Another day of onshore flow so 81° was the best we could do here...very humid though, currently 76°/74°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 It feels like the atmosphere is primed to dump tomorrow. Anyone have the PWATS? I would expect localized flash flooding in any cells that develop tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front. I could see that being in mid island with the sea breeze front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 77/76 here, it feels like breath outside. High was 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It feels like the atmosphere is primed to dump tomorrow. Anyone have the PWATS? I would expect localized flash flooding in any cells that develop tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front. I could see that being in mid island with the sea breeze front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 T 76, DP 74, thick, unpleasant air. Smoke from our back yard pyrotechnics just hung in the yard. And as an old army vet still celebrating Independence Day, it brought to mind those soldiers engaged this same time of year in 1778, in even hotter, adverse conditions at the Battle of Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 79, dew 75 here. JFK is 76 dew 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Around what time should we expect thunderstorms tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 17 minutes ago, TriPol said: Around what time should we expect thunderstorms tomorrow? From OKX discussion: Timing of onset of convection looks to be late morning into early afternoon for the Lower Hudson Valley, during the early afternoon for much of the remainder of the area, with perhaps Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut not getting the onset of convection until closer to mid afternoon (about 3PM local time). The convection looks to end by mid evening, about 10 PM for Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast NJ, and NYC and closer to midnight to 1AM farther east. Dry weather returns thereafter into early Sunday as the cold front moves farther south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 I think Vermont - New Hampshire - Maine does well tomorrow with the severe threat. Not ruling it out for our area but it certainly looks more impressive for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Ok, what the hell is going on in California? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Just now, TriPol said: Ok, what the hell is going on in California? Another earthquake, 6.9 magnitude near Ridgecrest Kern County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 38 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: I think Vermont - New Hampshire - Maine does well tomorrow with the severe threat. Not ruling it out for our area but it certainly looks more impressive for them. It looks like more of a heavy rain/flood threat for us but severe storms can't be ruled out. It should be an active day nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Next 8 days continue to average 79degs., or 3degs. AN. btw: EURO long range is +3 to +4 on the next 46 days. 76.6* here, at 6am with low level sea fog. 76.1* and less fog at 7am. 78.0* at 8am, trying for hazy blue, but still low fog---inside hygrometer was 80%---yuk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 The SPC continues our area in a marginal risk for severe weather but the primary threat will be heavy rain/flash flooding. Some places could receive quite a bit of rain in a short period of time. Brutal start to the day. Current temp 77/DP 74/RH 88% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 HPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 80/77 before 8 AM, though that isn’t saying much considering the low was 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 Highest dewpoint of the year now with JFK at 78 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 the 12z OKX sounding shows a convective temp of only 83F. Won't take much more heating to get showers/storms to pop today. seabreeze fronts will probably bring the first cells of the day to the area early this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 35 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: the 12z OKX sounding shows a convective temp of only 83F. Won't take much more heating to get showers/storms to pop today. seabreeze fronts will probably bring the first cells of the day to the area early this afternoon. It looks like storms are starting to fire over E. PA already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Getting some peaks of sun now, up to 84/79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Welcome to the jungle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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