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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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Over the past hour, Central Park picked up 1.14" rain and LaGuardia Airport received 1.36".

A period of intense heat lies ahead for the East. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week into perhaps the start of next week (especially Friday through Sunday). The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above in New York City and upper 90s to 100° elsewhere in the Middle Atlantic region is on the table.

Ahead of the excessive heat, the remnants of Barry will likely bring 1.00"-2.00" rain with locally higher amounts, some of which could approach or exceed 3.00" by the time the precipitation ends tomorrow.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 95% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 69% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 62.8°-65.1°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -11.33 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.480. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.808 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.743. That is the 14th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 14 consecutive days was June 11-25, 2017 (15 consecutive days).

The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.5°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 82%.

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11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Very loud thunder and bright lightning. Some light rain now. 

Yea finally raining here, but northern Nassau cashed in big time. Crushed there. 

Nice lightning now. Anything but wind lol

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