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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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4 hours ago, psv88 said:

88 here now, was 89 earlier. 

I see the park is at 82, 3 below the next coolest reading in the area...complete joke and predictable after the rain. Even FOK is 87 FFS

It’s obvious the problem is only getting worse. Another couple years of growth and it will not even be usable. 

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GFS and ECM with 850 temps of 18-21C Wed - Fri (7/17-19) next week.  Remnants of Barry nearby should equate to more clouds and storms but if one of those 3 days see mostly sunny conditions could see some upper 90s.  Beyond there (7/22 - late July) overall hot setup continues 

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Following 0.79" rain yesterday, partly sunny skies prevailed over New York City today. Yesterday's largest rainfall in the greater New York City region was 3.46", which was measured at Oakland (1 SSE), New Jersey.

Today's sunshine concluded with a picturesque Manhattanhenge sunset.

NYCManhattanhenge07122019.jpg

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time.

The SOI was -20.19 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.801. Blocking will likely persist through July 20.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 11, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.482 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.392.

The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.4° (31st warmest on record) to 79.2° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869.

The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 74%.

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ECM has the center of Barry's remnants near IL/KY Wed morning then tracking east later Wed / Thu.  Should this timing hold up id expect tue and maybe wed to soar to the mid/upper 90s  with a wetter wed pm/ thu.  Beyond there ECM wants to pump the ridge into Mid west which would keep things warm - hot here and potentially feature consistent storms.  betting a warm and wetter is the way to go.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro has quite a surge of major heat and humidity after the Barry remnants on Thursday.

 

9F07A035-91D2-4E6B-B972-578CFE027485.thumb.png.b902bdad2913ed9cfb1189e2823ffbaa.png

3036B6C3-979D-451A-BCB5-F68F9FB49576.thumb.png.79a7083d06f5213e8150b8b3e5cd5c32.png

Whoa..If that ever materialized that'd produce heat indexes near or at 120 for urban NE NJ into NYC.

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