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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

No heatwave for New York City. Tomorrow we definitely hit 90 in my opinion

Not for the park (running 3-5 below other stations) but most other NYC stations will get 3 or 4 ( Wednesday, pending on the front timing.

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Last 3 days of July are averaging 82degs., or 5.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +2.8[79.3].       July should end near +3.1[79.6].

77.7* here at 6am.     81.3* by 11am.   Reached 85.0* here by 1pm, but it quickly retreated to below 83* in a few minutes.

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Several of our stations are in the top 3 warmest Julys on record through the 28th. Temperature departures are running +2.9  to +4.3. Large area of +3 to +5 from around Chicago to Boston this July.

EWR...+2.9

NYC....+2.8

LGA.....+3.7

JFK......+2.9

ISP.......+4.3

BDR.....+3.7

FF14511A-8CD2-4BFB-A32D-41C0DC3B0C05.png.ad870bf8ec19fcd6186e86db327af5ff.png

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Boy the weather was all over the map around the region yesterday. I drove through a couple of heavy sunshowers with rainbows galore, saw some amazing outflow boundaries whipping the trees into a frenzy and a few huge t-storm towers that had to have reached 40k at least. The drive down Rt 22 along and between the Taconics and Berkshires was super pleasant (other than the sluggish traffic that ran 15-20mph below the limit for 60 miles).

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21 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

First week of August continues to warm on the Ecmwf, as wavelengths at this time of year support a connection of geopotential heights Greenland-NE US. 00z euro has multiple days of 90 or greater through the 7th. 

Betting on warm and wetter than normal has been the way to go.  The 8/1 - 8/7 period may see increased storminess, and its still looking like on/around 8/9 into the eek of 8/12 stronger heat will be heading east.  Could be some nice storms with active pattern just near or north of the region and any tropical antics.   

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Several of our stations are in the top 3 warmest Julys on record through the 28th. Temperature departures are running +2.9  to +4.3. Large area of +3 to +5 from around Chicago to Boston this July.

EWR...+2.9

NYC....+2.8

LGA.....+3.7

JFK......+2.9

ISP.......+4.3

BDR.....+3.7

FF14511A-8CD2-4BFB-A32D-41C0DC3B0C05.png.ad870bf8ec19fcd6186e86db327af5ff.png

and this is with a -NAO/-AO couplet? That's completely unprecedented.

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Upton should definitely issue a rip current advisory. We had a wild end of the day yesterday at Jones beach with numerous rescues one of which I was part of. The long period swells originating from the Southern Hemisphere contain tremendous energy. As a set of waves approaches and then breaks, water is pulled out in a similar way to a tsunami. This effect then creates rip currents. The conditions are very deceiving as it is calm between the sets.

Hoping for at least some rain this evening on the uws. It would be nice to continue the trend of not needing to water!  

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24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

and this is with a -NAO/-AO couplet? That's completely unprecedented.

This is what happens when you get the strongest Pacific Northwest Jet streak on record for the entire warm season. It pumps the ridge over the Northeast. 

D79A13E4-AA32-4187-A083-207CBE4EE485.gif.47f0f8ecc91d09f8a3bc1dfe467f8a23.gif

D7902BA4-76D9-4B6F-9ED2-F857ABD43E78.thumb.png.a61c98bef5209a315cb7321511ede11c.png

089DF741-1D50-4EEF-ABF5-9BF878DE864E.png.130a327af82080e55a31d0154adc5ed2.png

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Upton should definitely issue a rip current advisory. We had a wild end of the day yesterday at Jones beach with numerous rescues one of which I was part of. The long period swells originating from the Southern Hemisphere contain tremendous energy. As a set of waves approaches and then breaks, water is pulled out in a similar way to a tsunami. This effect then creates rip currents. The conditions are very deceiving as it is calm between the sets.

Hoping for at least some rain this evening on the uws. It would be nice to continue the trend of not needing to water!  

Do you know how long those conditions expected to last? Is it more on south facing shores of LI, or basically the same along the east coast in general?

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

Do you know how long those conditions expected to last? Is it more on south facing shores of LI, or basically the same along the east coast in general?

I was on Fire Island on Friday and didn't notice anything too terrible. I don't know if it has picked up since, I hope not as we're thinking Montauk on Thursday.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Pending on clouds we do see a spike of 850's tomorrow near 20-21 C for a 6 hour window - so could see the warmer / metro spots get 95+.  Clouds the caveat.

Heat advisory tomorrow for NYC for 2nd consecutive day of 95+ heat indexes 

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4 hours ago, dWave said:

Do you know how long those conditions expected to last? Is it more on south facing shores of LI, or basically the same along the east coast in general?

South facing shores will have the biggest swells and impacts, but they will be noticeable along the whole east coast. The swell started arriving Saturday and should last through the week with lowering swell periods and thus impacts. It’s those longest period swells that have the most energy. It’s pretty amazing stuff and very rare. 

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