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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

I doubt we get a heatwave this time and if anything it won’t be in the upper 90’s... the summer peaked last week, it just doesn’t feel as hot anymore, which I’m thankful cause we got great weather coming up after a few days of humidity early next week

If someone said winter had already peaked while it was still January they’d be bombarded with “it can snow in March/April” responses.

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I doubt we get a heatwave this time and if anything it won’t be in the upper 90’s... the summer peaked last week, it just doesn’t feel as hot anymore, which I’m thankful cause we got great weather coming up after a few days of humidity early next week

We will here. 92+ today thru Tuesday 

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We will here. 92+ today thru Tuesday 

Yeah and I wouldn't be surprised if we touch 95 monday or tuesday. Not quite as extreme as the last heat wave, but more than just run of the mill summer heat. Not sure why he keeps talking as if the worst of summer is over. August always offers some intense heat.

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19 minutes ago, Cfa said:

If someone said winter had already peaked while it was still January they’d be bombarded with “it can snow in March/April” responses.

 

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We will here. 92+ today thru Tuesday 

 

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah and I wouldn't be surprised if we touch 95 monday or tuesday. Not quite as extreme as the last heat wave, but more than just run of the mill summer heat. Not sure why he keeps talking as if the worst of summer is over. August always offers some intense heat.

All I said is the summer peaked I didn’t say summer is over. I expect a hot and humid September 

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Some more typical summer heat today - Wed (ahead of the next from) peaking tues where some hotter areas could get to mid 90s, 850 temps 16-19C.  Beyond there 8/1 - 8/8 back towards normal and potential  wetter period.  On/around 8/9 and into the 8/12 week could see the next round of stronger heat spread into the region which would follow a similar progression of the end of June EU heat wave with our area experiencing stronger heat around 14-20 days after.

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah and I wouldn't be surprised if we touch 95 monday or tuesday. Not quite as extreme as the last heat wave, but more than just run of the mill summer heat. Not sure why he keeps talking as if the worst of summer is over. August always offers some intense heat.

It'll be hard to top the 99-100F/110-120HI readings though. Sun angle really dives beyond 1st week of August too. 

But never say never.

I think if we can dry out soils then it's more likely we see upper 90s when the next big heat surge comes August 10th onward. 

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We have some very interesting swell that originated in the Southern Hemisphere effecting area beaches this weekend. Swell periods of 17-16 seconds which is indicative of long period deep water swell. The storm that caused these swells formed last week mid way between South America and Africa. This same storm is responsible for the largest waves ever surfed in Brazil. 

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/avalanche-comes-brazil/57990

As these swells reach our beaches, despite being significantly decayed they produce surging waves that have caused minor wash-overs. Tons of energy in the ocean right now!!

 

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It looks like there is potential for heavy rain/storms the next several days beginning tomorrow. Both Mt.Holly and Upton have a chance for showers/storms just about everyday right thru next weekend with the possibility of flash flooding/severe weather as the week progresses. Details on late week and next weekend are still a bit sketchy at this point.

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We have some very interesting swell that originated in the Southern Hemisphere effecting area beaches this weekend. Swell periods of 17-16 seconds which is indicative of long period deep water swell. The storm that caused these swells formed last week mid way between South America and Africa. This same storm is responsible for the largest waves ever surfed in Brazil. 

https://www.surfline.com/surf-news/avalanche-comes-brazil/57990

As these swells reach our beaches, despite being significantly decayed they produce surging waves that have caused minor wash-overs. Tons of energy in the ocean right now!!

 

Waves began reaching the middle of the beach at Smith Point Beach shortly after I arrived. Hordes of people picking up their belongings and running as if it were a tsunami. Stopped about 10 feet short of reaching me, didn’t have to move.

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The historic heat that smashed high temperature records across western Europe has continued to affect Scandinavia and has spread westward to parts of Iceland.

Records included: Arvika, Sweden 89°; Bodi Vi, Norway, 84°; Egilsstadir, Iceland: 75°; Floda, Sweden: 89°; Haugesund, Norway: 88° (tied all-time record); Helsinki-Kaisaniemi, Finland: 92° (all-time record; records go back to 1844); Laksfors, Norway: 92°; Mariehamn, Finland: 86°; Mo i rana, Norway: 90°; Mosjoen, Norway: 93°; Namsos Lufthavn, Norway: 93° (all-time record); Orland Iii, Norway: 90° (tied all-time record); Ostermund Froson, Sweden: 84°; Pori, Finland: 91° (tied all-time record); Roros Lufthavn, Norway: 84°; Rygge, Norway: 86°; Sandnessjoen, Norway: 88°; Trondheim, Norway: 90°; and, Turku-Artukainen, Finland: 90° (tied all-time record).

Exceptional warmth will continue to shift northwestward to Iceland and then Greenland. During the first half of this week, parts of Greenland could see temperatures more than 18°F above normal.

To put the 2019 heat into perspective, on account of the June and July heat waves, 576 of France's 1,050 (54.9%) weather stations set all-time high temperature records this year.

Canada's Quebec Province again experience some record high temperatures. Records included: Gaspe: 88° (tied daily record); Natashquan: 82°; and, Port Menier: 83° (just missed the July record of 85°).

Record cold will likely spill westward into Finland over the next several days. By midweek, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.7°-65.2°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was not available today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.774. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August.

Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September.

On July 27, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.750 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.671.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.2°-79.8° (2.7° to 3.3° above normal).

August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month.

Finally, on July 27, Arctic Sea Ice extent (JAXA) was 6.288 million square kilometers. That was the lowest such figure for that date. It remains likely that this year's minimum figure will fall below 4.000 million square kilometers for only the second time on record.

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