ILoveWinter Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting. Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday! What are the odds that this keeps up through at least a part of winter vs. reversing - lets say right around Dec 1?? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 48 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: What are the odds that this keeps up through at least a part of winter vs. reversing - lets say right around Dec 1?? lol if we can keep that warm water going south of Greenland there would be better chances of it extending into/thru winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting. Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday! Nah that's bound to not work out I'm appreciating a bit of dryness after a year and a half of wet. I was on Fire Island yesterday and didn't see anything but now that you've said that I'm going to have to head down to the beach more often to see what I can see. My wife and kids want to head out to Montauk on Thursday so maybe... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormier conditions. Have to wonder if the solar min has anything to do with this or it is just a huge coincidence. I know there is on going research but wasn't sure how concrete the evidence was at this point... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2019 Author Share Posted July 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Have to wonder if the solar min has anything to do with this or it is just a huge coincidence. I know there is on going research but wasn't sure how concrete the evidence was at this point... Most of the current research seems to be focused on the wavier jet stream and stuck weather patterns with continued warming. There was an interesting paper out right before the big -NAO drop in 2009. It linked bigger NAO swings to warmer conditions. The paper has done very well last 10 years with the periods of all-time record negative and positive phases. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-01/whoi-sls011309.php 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 81 and sunny at 9:35 kinda hot I think temps overachieve today. My high is supposed to be 85. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 One thing that has been a theme this summer since Memorial day is the string of great weekend / Holiday (July 4th) weather. Any of the rains/storms have been mostly during the week. I count 18 of 21 weekend/ holiday days as dry and great summer weather. Warmer spots may snatch a 90 today more widedpread tomorrow - Wed where Mon and Tue (especially Tuesday) could yield some stronger (95 +) heat. Then the next front which could deliver some more heavy rains later Wed - Fri. Then back to normal / below 8/1 - 8/8 before next surge of heat comes back and perhaps stronger into the week of 8/12.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Most of the current research seems to be focused on the wavier jet stream and stuck weather patterns with continued warming. There was an interesting paper out right before the big -NAO drop in 2009. It linked bigger NAO swings to warmer conditions. The paper has done very well last 10 years with the periods of all-time record negative and positive phases. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-01/whoi-sls011309.php As you sow, so shall you reap, as always ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2019 Author Share Posted July 27, 2019 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting. Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday! The dolphins have been putting on quite a show off Sliver Point in Atlantic Beach. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormier conditions. It might just trend warmer. I'd be surprised if we didn't see persistent arctic heat through September, last year early September north of Alaska was 80 degrees, +5SDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Noon : More clouds in the last hour EWR: 86 LGA: 86 TEB: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 85 ACY: 84 BLM: 83 NYC: 83 JFK: 80 ISP: 79 New Bnswck: --- (site down) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Current temp 87/DP 67/RH 52% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Some pop up storms in pa and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 1PM; many sites partly - mostly cloudy now and next hour or so. Temps fell back a bit PHL: 86 TEB: 85 EWR: 85 LGA: 84 TTN: 84 ACY: 84 NYC: 83 BLM: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 89 in Belle Mead...push push 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Sunshine with some brief drizzle/showers from time to time the last 30 mins. Theres a t storm around into upper manhattan, NW Bx. Has a special weather statement on it headed across the bx toward the Sound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 That would be great, let’s keep the wet times rolling. If we can translate this into next winter things will really get interesting. Marine life is on an incredible upswing. Daily dolphins, tuna, rays and the occasional whales at Jones Beach this summer. It’s incredible to see. I saw tuna flying through the air chasing bait fish only a few feet from shore yesterday!There have been whale and dolphin sightings in Raritan Bay as well. My parents have gone out on their boat regularly to go whale watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 Windy around the whitestone br. storm mainly along and north of fordham rd/pelham pkwy. Watch out around orchard beach, city island and adjacent waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 84 hi and current temp...winds went se around noon and leveled off temps here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 High of 84 but dropped real quick to 71 with rain and a Flood advisory here. Sunshine and 80s maybe 10 blocks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 27, 2019 Author Share Posted July 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, dWave said: High of 84 but dropped real quick to 71 with rain and a Flood advisory here. Sunshine and 80s maybe 10 blocks south. Your area continues to be near the heaviest rainfall zone during the last 30 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 84 today. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 The historic heat that smashed high temperature records across western Europe has continued to affect Scandinavia and some nearby areas. Records included: Alvysbyn, Sweden: 92°; Bodo Vi, Norway: 88° (all-time record); Bronnoysund, Norway: 90° (all-time record); Haparanda, Sweden: 91°; Helsinki: 88° (tied daily record); Jyvasklyla, Finland: 88°; Kemi, Finland: 88°; Kiruna, Sweden (67.856° N): 82°; Kuopio, Finland: 90°; Kvikkjokk, Sweden (66.950° N): 91° (all-time record); Laksfors Norway: 96° (35.6°C) (tied national record); Lulea, Sweden: 86°; Mikkeli, Finland: 88°; Mo i rana, Norway: 91° (tied all-time record); Sandnessjoen, Norway: 90° (all-time record); Scatsa (Shetland Island), United Kingdom: 75°; Trondheim, Norway: 91° (all-time record); Umea Flygplats, Sweden: 86°; Utti, Finland: 88°; and, Vidsel, Sweden: 91°. Another day of record warmth is possible tomorrow in parts of Norway and Sweden. Afterward, that warmth will shift northwestward to Iceland and then Greenland. By early next week, parts of Greenland could see temperatures more than 18°F above normal. Record cold will likely develop in western Russia tomorrow and spill westward into Finland through early next week. By the middle of next week, most of Europe will likely be colder than normal. The coldest anomalies relative to normal will be centered over eastern Europe, including western Russia. Separately, record high temperatures were also recorded in parts of Canada's Quebec Province today. Records included: Mont Joli: 88°; Riviere du Loup: 85°; and, Sept Iles: 82°. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.7°-65.0°. To further illustrate the changes that have been taking place in Anchorage, which is all but certain to record its warmest month on record this July, low temperatures of 60° or above were once uncommon. Prior to 2000 (1954-1999), the return time was once every 4.6 years. Since 2000, Anchorage has averaged 1.3 such dates each year; Since 2010, that figure is 1.9 per year; and, since 2015 that figure is 3.2 per year. July 2019 has seen 5 such days, which exceeds the annual record of 4, which was set in 2016. The 2019 total is 6 days. The last year during which Anchorage had no 60° or above minimum temperatures was 2014. At the same time, the number of days per year during which the temperature fell below 0° has fallen sharply. Prior to 2000 (1954-1999), the average was 29.1 days per year. Since 2000, that figure is 12.8; since 2010, it is 9.6; and, since 2015, it is 5.2. Prior to 2000, Anchorage saw 30 or more subzero minimum temperatures once every two years. Since 2000, there has been only 1 such case. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.467. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. On July 26, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.672 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.484. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.2°-79.9° (2.7° to 3.4° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 7/27: PHL: 90 EWR: 88 TEB: 88 TTN: 88 New Bnswck: 88 LGA: 87 ACY: 86 BLM: 85 NYC: 85 JFK: 82 ISP: 80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Very pleasant late July weather the past three days. Morning lows have been seasonably cool for mid summer: 62.5F, 60.7F, and 61.7F for the past 3 mornings respectively. Highs in the mid 80s each day. My high was 85 today. The mornings have been very nice, I’ve started off at 62.3, 62.8 & 65.5 the past three here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 High for the day was 88 here. Current temp 74/DP 65/RH 73% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Last 4 days of July are averaging 80.5*, or 4degs. AN. Month to date is +2.8[79.3]. July should end near +3.0[79.5]. We could still tie for a Top Ten spot---at No. 10 (79.6). 72.8* here at 6am. Just 82.4* by 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 28, 2019 Author Share Posted July 28, 2019 The Virginia and lower Delmarva July climate has effectively shifted north to the NYC area during this decade. Numerous recent Julys with an 80 or above average temperature at LGA. Record number of 75+ dewpoint days at JFK typical for areas well to our south. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2013 81.2 0 4 2019 81.1 4 - 2016 81.1 0 5 1955 80.9 0 6 1966 80.8 0 7 2006 80.7 0 8 1994 80.6 0 9 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 10 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 Other than some areas of storms on the NW PA/NY border heading east we'll see how much of that should dissipates - most areas should grab another 90 degree today. 10AM ISP: 83 TEB: 83 ACY: 83 LGA: 82 EWR: 82 JFK: 81 BLM: 81 PHL: 81 TTN: 80 NYC: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 28, 2019 Share Posted July 28, 2019 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/recentvis.html http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now