donsutherland1 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Extreme heat covered parts of Europe. High temperatures included: Angers, France: 105° (all-time record); Bordeaux, France: 106° (all-time record); Brive, France: 108° (all-time record); Chateaudun, France: 102° (monthly record); Chateauroux, France: 106° (all-time record); Cognac, France: 104° (all-time record); Dinard, France: 99° (monthly record); La Roche, France: 99° (monthly record); Le Havre, France: 99° (all-time record); Le Mans, France: 105° (tied all-time record); Limoges, France: 100° (all-time record); Nantes, France: 100° (monthly record); Poitiers, France: 104° (all-time record); Rennes, France: 104° (all-time record); and, Tours, France: 104° (tied all-time record). Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 91% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.8°-64.8°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -1.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.525. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. On July 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.557 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.764. That is the 20th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. That surpasses the old record of 19 consecutive days during which the MJO was in Phase 1, which was established during the July 6-24, 2004 period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 96%. Most likely range: 78.7°-80.2° (2.2° to 3.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Nws confirmed multiple sightings of cold air funnels the last hour. Found this on Twitter too. Im photographing a storm over Staten Island and it's trying hard to produce one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: Nws confirmed multiple sightings of cold air funnels the last hour. Found this on Twitter too. Im photographing a storm over Staten Island and it's trying hard to produce one. Definitely some strange clouds off to my east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 This was the closest I got but it quickly dissipated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 44 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: This was the closest I got but it quickly dissipated. Around what time was this photograph taken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: Around what time was this photograph taken? 8:30 PM on the dot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Picked up 0.57" of rain for the day yesterday. Storm total rainfall 2.42" Current temp 68/DP 65/RH 92% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Last 8 days of July are averaging 79degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.2[79.7]. July should end near +3.0[79.5]. 68.0* here at 6am. 78.6* by Noon-with semi-innocent cumulus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2019 Author Share Posted July 24, 2019 JFK just experienced a first for July heavy rain and heat. This was the 2nd heaviest 2 day rainfall on record for July. But all the other top 5 years were significantly cooler. Maximum 2-Day Total Precipitation for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 3.69 1969-07-29 0 2 3.66 2019-07-23 0 3 3.51 1996-07-31 0 4 3.45 1997-07-25 0 5 3.42 2000-07-27 0 July 1969....75.0...-0.8....max...97 July 2019....79.1...+3.5...max...99 July 1996....72.2...-3.6....max...87 July 1997....74.6...-1.2....max...94 July 2000....72.4...-3.4....max...93 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2019 Author Share Posted July 24, 2019 Continuation of the July 2010’s above normal temperature departures 80% to 90% of the years. July......EWR....NYC...LGA 2019....+3.4....+3.2....+4.0...so far 2018....+0.8....+1.1.....+2.4 2017....-0.1.....+0.3.....+0.7 2016...+2.5.....+2.2.....+3.7 2015...+1.6.....+2.3.....+1.8 2014....-0.4.....-0.4.......-0.4 2013....+3.5...+3.3......+3.8 2012....+3.4...+2.3......+3.0 2011....+5.3...+3.7......+3.0 2010...+4.9....+4.8......+5.4 https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 I wrote up a quick recap with some of my footage and photographs of the past 6 days around here. 3 days of severe weather and a 3 day heatwave. http://www.nicholasisabella.com/a-wild-week-of-weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on.... i have a hard time seeing any dry or prolonged dry period materialize. bet on warm and wet and with the fast pacific flow nothing lingering more than 3-5 days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: i have a hard time seeing any dry or prolonged dry period materialize. bet on warm and wet and with the fast pacific flow nothing lingering more than 3-5 days. My station had close to 70" of precipitation in 2018, and is on a similar pace this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 7 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Euro weeklies are hot/dry starting next week on.... I'm still waiting for my deep blocking and feet of snow the weeklies kept promising me last winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 24, 2019 Share Posted July 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm still waiting for my deep blocking and feet of snow the weeklies kept promising me last winter. And the big spring torch that was always just around the corner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2019 Author Share Posted July 24, 2019 High end EF-1 tornado with estimated 110 winds ripped roof off Cape Cod motel. One of the most dramatic tornado videos from the Northeast. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1154119467468595200/photo/1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 7/24 TEB: 86 EWR: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 JFK: 84 TTN: 83 ISP: 83 NYC: 83 ACY: 82 BLM: 82 New Bnswk: -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Historic heat scorched Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands with all-time national record high temperatures. All-time high temperatures in western Europe included: Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweilger, Germany: 104° (39.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Beauvechain, Belgium: 100°; Bierset, Belgium: 100°; Brussels: 99°; Den Helder, Netherlands: 95°; Dusseldorf, Germany: 102°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 103° (39.3°C) (new national high temperature record); Eisenborn, Belgium: 97°; Florennes, Belgium: 99°; Gilze, Netherlands: 102°; Groningen, Netherlands: 97°; Kleine-Brogel, Belgium: 102° (38.9°C) (new national high temperature record); Nancy, France: 104°; Saarbrucken, Germany: 99°; Schaffen, Belgium: 102°; Thuilley-aux-Groseilles, France: 104°; and, Volkel, Netherlands: 102°. More extreme temperatures are likely tomorrow. Paris will likely challenge and break its highest temperature on record. London could see the thermometer challenge its all-time record, though there is some risk that clouds could move in just before the record could be surpassed. In contrast, numerous record low temperatures were recorded across parts of the Southeastern United States this morning. No monthly records were broken. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 99% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.4°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around July 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -3.57 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.970. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. Preliminary MJO data for July 23 was not available. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 98%. Most likely range: 78.8°-80.2° (2.3° to 3.7° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 I just saw a meteor, from my perspective it had a tragectory of se-nwish. Happened ~11pm. I'm looking to the ENE , ~6 mi SW of WTC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 16 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I just saw a meteor, from my perspective it had a tragectory of se-nwish. Happened ~11pm. I'm looking to the ENE , ~6 mi SW of WTC Sounds like an early Capricornid. Handful of bright fireballs per night in the waning days of July into early August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.0[79.5]. July should end near +2.9[79.4]. 72.0* here at 6am. 73* at 7am. 74.1* at 8am. 76.4* at 9am. 79 5* by 11am. 80.6* by 1pm, with innocent cumulus to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2019 Author Share Posted July 25, 2019 With JJA past the midpoint, our area was very close to the warmest temperature departures for the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 62 this morning. Refreshing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, psv88 said: 62 this morning. Refreshing felt fall like last night in the late evening.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 54 was my low. Hoodie weather until the sun comes up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2019 Author Share Posted July 25, 2019 Where was this historic -NAO pattern during the winter? It’s getting ready to significantly drop again after setting the new record. The LGA 100 degree day coincided with a brief rise to positive along with the record breaking Pacific Northwest jet streak. Also notice how the far North Atlantic SST’s have rapidly risen to near record levels under this pattern. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1153756526630318081 NAO+ anyone? After being 88 days in a negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation has turned today to positive. This beats the previous record by almost three weeks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 Wow no wonder the Arctic ice is getting decimated this season. I wonder how this will factor in during hurricane season. The 2012 record low season coincided with Hurricane Sandy, but unsure if that's related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2019 Share Posted July 25, 2019 1PM - just a splendid afternoon LGA: 84 PHL: 84 EWR: 84 NYC: 83 JFK: 83 ISP: 83 TEB: 82 ACY: 81 BLM: 81 TTN: 81 New Bnswk: -- (site down since 7/23) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now