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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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The heat wave is now poised to break. High temperatures earlier today included: Atlantic City: 100° (old record: 99°, 1957 and 1981); Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 98°; Hartford: 100°; Islip: 99°; New York City-JFK: 99° (tied record set in 1991); New York City-LGA: 100° (tied record set in 1991); New York City-NYC: 95°; Newark: 99°; Norfolk: 100°; Philadelphia: 98°; Providence: 96°; Sterling: 100°; and, Washington, DC: 99°.

At 11 pm, Boston had a temperature of 88°. So far, Boston's daily minimum temperature is 83°. Should Boston register a daily minimum temperature of 80° or above, Boston would have two consecutive days of such warm minimum temperatures for the first time on record. Boston's records go back to 1872.

Tomorrow will likely feature the development of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is possible across portions of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, a period of cooler weather appears likely.

Another bout of extreme heat is imminent in western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied >99% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 82% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.5°-64.9°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -2.46 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.032. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.523 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.164. That is the 18th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 18 consecutive days was July 6-24, 2004 (19 consecutive days).

As had been signaled by the MJO, the second half of July is experiencing a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings that had developed during the first half of the month in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

Much of the region has now experienced a heat wave. Baltimore has now had 10 consecutive 90° or above days and Washington DC has had 11 consecutive 90° or above days. Peak temperatures in the northern Middle Atlantic region have included: Atlantic City: 100°; Baltimore: 100°; Boston: 98°; Hartford: 100°; Islip: 99°; New York City: JFK-99°, LGA-100°, NYC-95°; Newark: 98°; Philadelphia 98°; and, Washington, DC: 99°.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 89%. Most likely range: 78.2°-80.1° (1.7° to 3.6° above normal).

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Next 8 days averaging 76.5degs., or just NORMAL.

Month to date is  +3.6[80.1].         Should be   +2.6[79.1] by the 30th.

81.1* here at 6am, but going the other way.   Used 68/82 for today.    82.0* at 7am.    82.0* at 8am.  83.8* by Noon.

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LGA has been our only major official site able to hit 100 degrees since 2013.

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature
Missing Count
1 2019 100 163
2 2018 98 0
3 2017 101 0
4 2016 99 0
5 2015 95 0
6 2014 93 0
7 2013 100 0
8 2012 101 0
9 2011 104 0
10 2010 103 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 99 163
2018 98 0
2017 99 0
2016 99 0
2015 98 0
2014 96 0
2013 101 0
2012 104 0
2011 108 0
2010 103 0
Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 99 163
2018 94 0
2017 95 0
2016 98 0
2015 95 0
2014 92 0
2013 100 0
2012 99 0
2011 103 0
2010 101 0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 99 163
2018 95 0
2017 93 0
2016 97 0
2015 94 0
2014 89 0
2013 95 0
2012 95 0
2011 100 0
2010 101 0
Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORI AP, CT - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 99 163
2018 94 0
2017 94 0
2016 97 0
2015 94 0
2014 91 0
2013 95 0
2012 96 0
2011 103 0
2010 98 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 76.5degs., or just NORMAL.

Month to date is  +3.6[80.1].         Should be   +2.6[79.1] by the 30th.

81.1* here at 6am, but going the other way.   Used 68/82 for today.    82.0* at 7am.    82.0* at 8am.

You should clarify that this is using the parks numbers. Other sites are +5

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