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July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Did the park hit 90 between hours? If not, that would be pretty disappointing to not have this go down as an official heat wave for the city

as of the 5 pm climate report it maxed out at 89. lol

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3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

So do I, since I was 3.  Going next week.

 

3 hours ago, dave0176 said:

Yep parents brought me here for my first time in July 1976 at 6 months old, been going ever since, now with my own family. The next three weeks will be even more crowded as it’s the in season height. 

 

Fog has finally cleared..... and it’s HOT on this beach!! 

Where do you stay ?

I like Wildwood Crest  and usually stay in the Cara Mara, Jolly Roger or Gold Crest motels.

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11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

as of the 5 pm climate report it maxed out at 89. lol

You know the sensor is really blocked beneath the vegetation when the average high this month through the 18th is the same as ISP and JFK.

NYC...86.6

EWR...88.8

JFK.....86.6

LGA....88.5

ISP......86.7

 

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31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

Where do you stay ?

I like Wildwood Crest  and usually stay in the Cara Mara, Jolly Roger or Gold Crest motels.

Usually at the Lotus Inn, which as you know is literally right across from the Jolly Roger.  The Crest is beautiful this time of year.

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5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

We had one year like that recently, chilly too.  Most years we luck out though which is good.

That was just one of those weeks in August I don't think it was anything even tropical was probably just like an offshore low that had stalled. We had fun because my cousins ended up coming down as well but the parents were all miserable

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53 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

Where do you stay ?

I like Wildwood Crest  and usually stay in the Cara Mara, Jolly Roger or Gold Crest motels.

For years we stayed at the Nomad motel across from the Sand Dune motel, however that suffered from the condo craze and was demolished for townhouses back in 2006. Stayed at the Sand Dune in the early 80s back to the Nomad, have stayed at Diamond Crest, the Compass, the Bristol, the Villa Nova and lately we’ve been staying at the El Coronado which I like very much. We love it here. My mom is here too actually, she is at the Wikiki Motel.

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Back on June 22, the SOI fell to -42.04. Then, it was noted that the SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).

By June 30, 90° or above days for select cities were: Boston: 0; New York City: 1; Philadelphia: 5; and, Washington, DC: 14. Through today, those totals are: Boston: 6; New York City: 6; Philadelphia: 15; and, Washington, DC: 28.

Those numbers will increase further this weekend. A period of intense heat has moved into the East. Tomorrow and Sunday, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could see high temperatures of 95° or above with some places perhaps reaching 100°. High humidity will lead to excessive real feel temperatures and dew point figures above 75°.

Following the coming weekend, another bout of extreme heat will likely develop over western Europe. The potential for July record high temperatures in parts of Spain, France, and Germany exists, especially during the first half of next week.

Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied 98% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied 79% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 63.5°-65.3°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -6.03 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.234. Nevertheless, this positive fluctuation will likely be short-lived. A general tendency for blocking could persist through much of the remainder of July.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. The latest EPS weekly guidance for August hints that above to possibly much above normal readings could develop in the Northeast, especially during the second half of the month.

On July 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.135 (RMM). The July 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.006. That is the 16th consecutive day during which the MJO has been in Phase 1. The last time the MJO was in Phase 1 for at least 16 consecutive days was June 29-July 14, 2008 (16 consecutive days).

The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 85%.

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11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I thought a Strong pac jet meant a warmer winter on the east coast?

Last winter the interior beat the coast. Cutters and huggers favored those areas with the absent BM tracks.

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28 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

The heat is interfering with the network communications in the MTA subway systems. 

Is it really the heat? Either way I decided to take the ferry to the bx which turned out to be an excellent call. 

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Heres the ridging and heat into northern Europe DonS was mentioning in his nightly updates.  Back here on the ranch, break in the heat 7/23 - 7/26 before models suggest more warming/heat by next weekend (7/27-28).  May see a repeat of the pattern evolution we saw the last two weeks of June and early July so perhaps stronger heat by August 5th and 13th  weeks after some wamrth/above normal overall/ wet 7/27 - 8/5.

 

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