psv88 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Radders said: I have been looking at DP forecasts over the last week or so and have noticed that the GFS in general seems to go less aggressive vs. the Euro. Is this a known GFS or Euro bias? A blend is a safe bet. JFK probably will hit 79, ISP 78, LGA 75, NYC 74 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, psv88 said: A blend is a safe bet. JFK probably will hit 79, ISP 78, LGA 75, NYC 74 may depend on the amount of heavy rain w/ barry's remnants tomorrow night. this could temper max temps in the 90s (instead of 100+) but would also increase the potential for 80+ DPs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The nam brings in the heavy convection tomorrow night while Thursday is largely dry now the main energy passes through tomorrow night into first thing thursday morning, but there is a lingering weakness thru the day thursday prior to the ridge building in late thursday night. low level jet forcing and the nocturnal flare-up of these tropical remnants probably will make tomorrow night the most likely period for widespread showers and storms. sea breeze storms are probable thursday afternoon unless the NAM's backdoor front is legit. most guidance keeps that just to the n and ne. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: the main energy passes through tomorrow night into first thing thursday morning, but there is a lingering weakness thru the day thursday prior to the ridge building in late thursday night. low level jet forcing and the nocturnal flare-up of these tropical remnants probably will make tomorrow night the most likely period for widespread showers and storms. sea breeze storms are probable thursday afternoon unless the NAM's backdoor front is legit. most guidance keeps that just to the n and ne. the 12z run jumped north with that front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: the main energy passes through tomorrow night into first thing thursday morning, but there is a lingering weakness thru the day thursday prior to the ridge building in late thursday night. low level jet forcing and the nocturnal flare-up of these tropical remnants probably will make tomorrow night the most likely period for widespread showers and storms. sea breeze storms are probable thursday afternoon unless the NAM's backdoor front is legit. most guidance keeps that just to the n and ne. Been thinking Barry's remnants comes in quicker, as most often happens and its more Wed PM start than Wed night. Perhaps enough clearing Thu to get temps in the mid 90s but would not shock me if clouds and storms linger most of Thu too. I do think temps on Wed to be under forecast as we likely cloud over early AM or even overnight tonight with plenty of storms and rain by the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Been thinking Barry's remnants comes in quicker, as most often happens and its more Wed PM start than Wed night. Perhaps enough clearing Thu to get temps in the mid 90s but would not shock me if clouds and storms linger most of Thu too. I do think temps on Wed to be under forecast as we likely cloud over early AM or even overnight tonight with plenty of storms and rain by the afternoon. we'll see. like today, there should be scattered air mass storms ahead of the circulation during the afternoon, including in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Noon Roundup: EWR: 89 LGA: 89 ACY: 89 TEB: 88 NYC: 87 New Brunswick : 87 TTN: 86 BLM: 86 JFK: 86 PHL: 86 ISP: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Current temp 90/DP 65/RH 38% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just cracked 90 here, 89.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 89 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 12z GFS remains less bullish with DPs. At 18z Saturday the metro is right at 100 but the 66-68 degree dewpoint keeps the heat index around 105 rather than 110+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: 12z GFS remains less bullish with DPs. At 18z Saturday the metro is right at 100 but the 66-68 degree dewpoint keeps the heat index around 105 rather than 110+. Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen 100 degree heat with 80 degree DP in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen 100 degree heat with 80 degree DP in this area. Yeah 100/66 seems way more realistic than 95/80. It's extremely hard to get the air temperature that high with DPs at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 87.6/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 57 minutes ago, TriPol said: Yeah, I don't think I've ever seen 100 degree heat with 80 degree DP in this area. July 15th,1995 was the only time that I could find. Newark https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/1995-7-15 2:00 PM 103 F 72 F 37 % WNW 13 mph 23 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 1:00 PM 103 F 73 F 38 % WNW 14 mph 26 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 2:00 PM 103 F 78 F 45 % WNW 17 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 3:00 PM 99 F 84 F 62 % W 16 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 4:00 PM 98 F 84 F 64 % WNW 14 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 5:00 PM 95 F 82 F 66 % WNW 10 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 6:00 PM 94 F 80 F 64 % WNW 14 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Radders said: I have been looking at DP forecasts over the last week or so and have noticed that the GFS in general seems to go less aggressive vs. the Euro. Is this a known GFS or Euro bias? The short range NAM under 36-48 and Euro under 72 seem to do best. But they have been too low on extreme dew point days. Their short range forecasts only had about a 75-76 dewpoint forecast a few weeks ago when JFK hit 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said: 12z GFS remains less bullish with DPs. At 18z Saturday the metro is right at 100 but the 66-68 degree dewpoint keeps the heat index around 105 rather than 110+. No surprise to see it backing off. anything over 77-78 is very rare here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 NYC's hottest mean temperatures... 7/22/2011.....104/84...94.0... 8/07/1918.....104/83...93.5 7/15/1995.....102/84...93.0 8/09/2001.....103/82...92.5 7/06/2010.....103/81...92.0... 7/21/1980.....102/82...92.0 7/06/1999.....101/83...92.0 7/09/1936.....106/77...91.5 7/04/1999.....101/82...91.5 7/23/2011.....100/83...91.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, uncle W said: NYC's hottest mean temperatures... 7/22/2011.....104/84...94.0... 8/07/1918.....104/83...93.5 7/15/1995.....102/84...93.0 8/09/2001.....103/82...92.5 7/06/2010.....103/81...92.0... 7/21/1980.....102/82...92.0 7/06/1999.....101/83...92.0 7/09/1936.....106/77...91.5 7/04/1999.....101/82...91.5 7/23/2011.....100/83...91.5 Impressive that the city managed to get to 106 after only starting at 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: Impressive that the city managed to get to 106 after only starting at 77. well yeah in 1936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Impressive that the city managed to get to 106 after only starting at 77. dust bowl. air was desert dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC's hottest mean temperatures... 7/22/2011.....104/84...94.0... 8/07/1918.....104/83...93.5 7/15/1995.....102/84...93.0 8/09/2001.....103/82...92.5 7/06/2010.....103/81...92.0... 7/21/1980.....102/82...92.0 7/06/1999.....101/83...92.0 7/09/1936.....106/77...91.5 7/04/1999.....101/82...91.5 7/23/2011.....100/83...91.5 My station had the exact same hi and low on 7/22/2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Just now, psv88 said: dust bowl. air was desert dry Good point, after the past few years I've been conditioned to assume that major heat is usually coupled with high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 16 hours ago, uofmiami said: Tell your CO that you want a patrol car with A/C that functions I wish lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 NWS P&C seems to not work anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dan76 said: NWS P&C seems to not work anyone else? Same for me. Warm and dry is kind of nice but a bit of rain late tomorrow would be welcome, it's starting to get a bit dusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 Euro looks about equally hot as far as 850s are concerned but relief arrives late Monday as opposed to Tuesday on the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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