CIK62 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 WARNING: START CARRYING A FLASHLIGHT AND WATER WHEREVER YOU GO, ESPECIALLY ELEVATORS. THERE IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER POWER FAILURE VIA THE GFS: Dig this, starting tomorrow............................ 91, 95, 96, 94, 102, 103, 103, 104, 100, 93 [that's +13degs. on the highs] and really no break until the 30th. EURO tops out at 99, briefly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 5th swing and miss here with a 89.2F high. Leveled off at 88F now. It's become the season of 89s here. TTN also 89 today it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Isotherm said: 5th swing and miss here with a 89.2F high. Leveled off at 88F now. It's become the season of 89s here. TTN also 89 today it appears. Southern half of the state dealt with quite hazy and cloudy conditions. Made to 91 here closer to the New Brunswick reading than TTN here. It hasn’t been the two weeks of 88,89 for sure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 2 hours ago, tdp146 said: Couple miles west of you at Tobay. Mmmmm Summer. Nice. Felt like being on a desert. Roasted out there. Water finally warmed up and felt great to swim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 High for the day was 91 here. Current temp 88/DP 60/RH 39% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Remember I queried about 1993 earlier this Spring as a case where there was extreme rainfall in the Mississippi Valley and extreme heat in the east. Looks like that kind of sustained extreme heat may come to fruition? That was the last time that Central Park experienced three days in a row of 100+ and Newark had five days in a row of 100+! While I don't see consecutive 100 degree days in Central Park, the probability of summer's most intense heat so far has increased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 1993 was amazing, we had 39 days of 90+ (tied 1991) and three straight days of 100 and above! The records for that summer were easily broken in 2010 though (despite what the Central Park badly sited equipment might say.) btw there was a half Manhattanhenge yesterday! I agree. Yes, there was the half Manhattanhenge. I'm sure at least some people turned out for it, as the view would still have been quite nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 The probability of summer's most intense heat wave to date later this week has increased. Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time. The SOI was -26.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.724. Blocking will likely persist through July 20. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast. On July 13, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.096 (RMM). The July 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.394. The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 79.0° (20th warmest on record) to 79.4° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869. The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 80.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 81%. The probability of an 80° or above mean temperature has increased to nearly 47%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 7/14: ISP: 94 EWR: 92 ACY: 92 LGA: 92 TEB: 91 JFK: 91 PHL: 91 New Brunswick: 91 BLM: 90 NYC: 89 TTN: 89 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 I know others have mentioned the high number of lightning bugs around. I feel like this is the most I ever remember seeing. Maybe not surprising after having seen them deep into October last year. I also feel like I have a couple of giant dragon fly’s from the Permian era flying around my back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 7/14: ISP: 92 EWR: 92 ACY: 92 LGA: 92 TEB: 91 JFK: 91 PHL: 91 New Brunswick: 91 BLM: 90 NYC: 89 TTN: 89 Islip hit 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 4th 90 degree day for me today with a high of 89.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 4th 90 degree day for me today with a high of 89.9. Always cool when Suffolk is the hottest county in the metro area. 90s county wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Islip hit 94 thanks the maxes hadnt updated yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Islip hit 94 I believe that's the highest reading of the summer anywhere in the metro area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Always cool when Suffolk is the hottest county in the metro area. 90s county wide. NW flow did a good job today, as Islip shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe that's the highest reading of the summer anywhere in the metro area That will change next week. EWR will crack 95 while Islip doesn’t touch 94 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I believe that's the highest reading of the summer anywhere in the metro area 51 minutes ago, psv88 said: That will change next week. EWR will crack 95 while Islip doesn’t touch 94 again I had a high of 94 on June 29th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Nice morning 67/60...won't have many like this for awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 15 hours ago, bluewave said: Westhampton is the big offshore flow heat leader so far at 93. Westhampton FAIR 93 63 36 W16 ..i'll confirm that..even right down to the beach..got down to the beach around 1030am with a gusty west wind..that 'dry front' passed, winds went NW and it felt like a furnace..then about 2 hours later wind kicked around to the SW and you immediately felt the cooling effects of a wind off the water. that lasted maybe an hour..then back to a NW wind and the furnace was back on..strange day at the beach with numerous wind shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 83degs., or 6.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.0[79.2]. Should be +4.3[80.6], by the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 80+ degree Julys have become the new normal around NYC this decade. Most years are in the top 10 warmest. LGA is in 8th place so far with Newark in 10th place. You have to get just south of DC for a 1981-2010 average July temperature of 80 degrees. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2013 81.2 0 4 2016 81.1 0 5 1955 80.9 0 6 1966 80.8 0 7 2006 80.7 0 8 2019 80.6 17 - 1994 80.6 0 9 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 10 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 11 2018 79.8 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 1955 80.5 0 8 1988 80.4 0 9 2002 80.0 0 10 2019 79.9 17 - 2016 79.9 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 9 hours ago, psv88 said: That will change next week. EWR will crack 95 while Islip doesn’t touch 94 again Right. Central park may not get to 94 while ewr hits at least 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Today will be the last day with 850MB Temps below 16C till about Jul 24/25th where most days between 7/16 - 7/24 will see 850 temps 18-22C, peaking next weekend at 23-24C. Wed/Thu (7/17-18) : I still think the timing of the remnants of Barry, even if very limited, limit high temp maxes Wed/Thu with clouds coming in Wed PM and lingering part of or most of Thu. These things always come in ahead of models. Despite the clouds temps should still make 90 in most places and DTemps will push into the mid to upper 70s so quite oppressive even if maxes are cut short from clouds. Fri - Mon (7/19-22) : the heat is on and possible some records during the hottest time of the year, although most of these, especially 2011 look safe but time will tell. Records: 7/19: NYC: 102 (1977) EWR: 100 (2013) LGA: 100 (2013) JFK: 97 (1963) TTN: 99 (1991) ISP:93 (2013) PHL: 100 (1930) 7/20: NYC: 101 (1980) EWR: 101 (1980) LGA: 101 (1991) JFK: 96 (2013) TTN: 99 (1991) ISP: 97 (1991) PHL: 99 (1930) 7.21: NYC: 104 (1977) EWR: 103 (2011) LGA: 100 (1991) JFK: 99 (1991) TTN: 101 (1930) ISP: 101 (1991) PHL: 100 (1930) 7/22: NYC: 104 (2011) EWR: 108 (2011) LGA: 104 (2011) JFK: 103 (2011) TTN: 106 (2011) ISP: 100 (2011) PHL: 103 (2011) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 Today will have full sunshine and may allow temps to over perform. 10AM: 79 here bright sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even Long Island can make a run on 100 degrees by next weekend if the W to NW flow develops as forecast. The Euro only had a forecast high of 89 yesterday on Long Island. It was 5 degrees to cool with the warm offshore flow. Ooof. Wife has a tough mudder race on Saturday. Looks way too hot for that. Block Island the only place to go for relief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Today will have full sunshine and may allow temps to over perform. 10AM: 79 here bright sunshine 74.2 here on the N Shore currently, I’ll probably finish around 85 or so for the day. If N wind is strong enough S Shore could over-perform, otherwise inland has best shot of being above forecasted highs IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 10 AM: ACY: 80 New Brunswick: 80 TEB: 79 EWR: 79 PHL: 79 LGA: 78 JFK: 78 ISP: BLM: 77 NYC: 76 TTN: 76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 74.2 here on the N Shore currently, I’ll probably finish around 85 or so for the day. If N wind is strong enough S Shore could over-perform, otherwise inland has best shot of being above forecasted highs IMO. You are 74? That's cooler than any site in the metro area lol. Do you put the sprinklers on in the morning? Your PWs looked to be on the grass/flower bed, so i assume you irrigate. 80 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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