July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro has quite a surge of major heat and humidity after the Barry remnants on Thursday.

 

Yeah. This is legit death heat level.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro has quite a surge of major heat and humidity after the Barry remnants on Thursday.

 

Last night it showed this type of extreme heat for wednesday, but it looks as if it backed off on that and now holds off the extreme heat until after Barry's remnants late week.

[donsutherland1]

Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of next week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table.

Meanwhile, earlier today Hurricane Barry made landfall in Louisiana. Flooding rains are likely across a portion of that state overnight and tomorrow. Further west, aided in part by the circulation around Barry, Brownsville and Corpus Christi set daily record high temperatures. Each city had a maximum temperature of 102°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time.

The SOI was -19.82 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.771. Blocking will likely persist through July 20.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 12, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.404 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.473. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 10 consecutive days.

The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.5° (29th warmest on record) to 79.3° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869.

The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 77%.

[TriPol]

Power Outage on the UWS of Manhattan. Tens of thousands of customers (hundreds of thousands of people) without power. Subways are down, elevators are stuck... it's bad.

[psv88]

Lots of fireflies this year. Pretty cool!

[CIK62]

36 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Power Outage on the UWS of Manhattan. Tens of thousands of customers (hundreds of thousands of people) without power. Subways are down, elevators are stuck... it's bad.

42 YEARS AGO tonight, at 9:31pm was the total power failure!    It was the eve of the start of a 9 day heatwave.

[TriPol]

Just now, CIK62 said:

42 YEARS AGO tonight, at 9:31pm was the total power failure!    It was the eve of the start of a 9 day heatwave.

Sounds familiar

[nycwinter]

i remember the 1977 blackout from my building i saw people breaking into shops stealing mopeds the police would come around chase them off but they were overwhelmed...

[SACRUS]

7/13:

EWR: 89
LGA: 89
TEB: 88
New Bnswk: 88
ACY: 88
PHL: 88
BLM: 87
TTN: 86
ISP: 85
JFK: 85
NYC: 85
 

[dmillz25]

87 for the high here

[psv88]

87

 

[Gravity Wave]

I'm not buying the extreme heat until it shows up inside 100 hours. I'm also rooting for no 95+ temps so that we have a shot at a top 5 hottest July without any extreme heat, which would be very impressive.

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 90

Current temp 71/DP 65/RH 82%

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 81degs., or 4.5degs. AN.

Month to date is   +2.8[78.9].         Should be +3.4[79.7] by the 22nd.

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Last night it showed this type of extreme heat for wednesday, but it looks as if it backed off on that and now holds off the extreme heat until after Barry's remnants late week.

0z has the first surge of heat and humidity for Wednesday with 850 mb temps maxing our near 20C. Then The Barry remnants on Thursday. The highest heat and humidity arrive by next Friday or Saturday. 850’s increase to +24C with peak dewpoints above 80 degrees. This may be the first time we get a major heat so close to a remnant tropical system. So plenty of deep tropical humidity will arrive with the heat. There are also very high  dewpoints over the corn belt with the recent record rains. So we will be talking about extreme heat index levels.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 10:11 AM, bluewave said:

Yesterday was the 5th day with the dewpoint reaching 75 degrees this year at JFK. Only 5 more needed for the first consecutive 4 years with 10 or more days.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Yes this should be the new way we measure heat- not number of 90 degree days.

The higher dew points are far more reflective of our new climate than high temperatures would be.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 7:42 AM, bluewave said:

7th latest date since 1980 that Newark hasn’t had any major 95 degree or higher major heat. It has been a challenge with the continuing record longest -NAO, clouds, rain, and onshore flow. Newark warmest temperature YTD is 93 degrees. The warmer minimum temperatures continue to lead the departures. 

July so far at at Newark

Max T...+1.9

Min T....+3.4

Avg......+2.6

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1985	08-14 (1985)	96	08-15 (1985)	97	0
2009	08-10 (2009)	95	08-17 (2009)	95	6
1998	07-21 (1998)	95	07-22 (1998)	98	0
2015	07-19 (2015)	98	09-08 (2015)	98	50
1982	07-17 (1982)	95	07-26 (1982)	95	8
1980	07-16 (1980)	96	09-02 (1980)	98	47
1990	07-04 (1990)	97	07-09 (1990)	96	4
2014	07-01 (2014)	95	09-06 (2014)	95	66

 

 

 

But wasn't 1980 one of our hottest summers?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 7:04 AM, jm1220 said:

Here there was 0.4-0.5”. The convective activity still fires up inland in most cases and by the time it gets here and pushed east the sun sets and the instability wanes. Also often in the summer storms fire on the sea breeze fronts which are slightly inland, and die off when the daytime instability decreases. It’s very typical for places near the shore to go into a mini drought in the summer here. 

Yep this happens a lot, our severe weather max seems to occur in the fall.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 9:29 AM, frankdp23 said:

What model do you use for your next 8 days in these posts? 

GFS seems to have a major urban heat issues.  The times it forecasts 100s a few days out is unreal.

the GFS has a warmth bias it's not UHI- UHI affects overnight lows much more than it does high temps.  Notice how Central Park's lows are usually 2-3 degrees warmer than JFK's, yet JFK often ends up being warmer for day time highs when there is no sea breeze.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of next week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table.

Meanwhile, earlier today Hurricane Barry made landfall in Louisiana. Flooding rains are likely across a portion of that state overnight and tomorrow. Further west, aided in part by the circulation around Barry, Brownsville and Corpus Christi set daily record high temperatures. Each city had a maximum temperature of 102°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time.

The SOI was -19.82 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.771. Blocking will likely persist through July 20.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 12, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.404 (RMM). The July 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.473. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 10 consecutive days.

The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.5° (29th warmest on record) to 79.3° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869.

The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 77%.

Remember I queried about 1993 earlier this Spring as a case where there was extreme rainfall in the Mississippi Valley and extreme heat in the east.  Looks like that kind of sustained extreme heat may come to fruition?  That was the last time that Central Park experienced three days in a row of 100+ and Newark had five days in a row of 100+!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 2:09 PM, psv88 said:

88 here now, was 89 earlier. 

I see the park is at 82, 3 below the next coolest reading in the area...complete joke and predictable after the rain. Even FOK is 87 FFS

Central Park temps are about as much a joke as a sighting of big foot.

JFK hit 90!

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 9:10 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah over 80". 2 feet alone in March and April 

September was a relatively dry 4.62" but quite warm

The most memorable event that year was the Feb 1983 blizzard (2 feet of snow here) although we did have our latest snow event in April, around 2" on the 20th!  That made it back to back Aprils with measurable snows, as we had the April blizzard the year prior.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 6:24 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s obvious the problem is only getting worse. Another couple years of growth and it will not even be usable. 

still no idea why the instruments were relocated.....

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 5:44 PM, psv88 said:

Rare day when JFK and ISP are the only 2 sites to hit 90 for the day...

and yet Bill Corbell of News 12 keeps yapping about how the north shore areas are the only ones that have a chance of reaching 90.....

do these guys not understand local climatology and what a NW/WNW wind does?  It's  like the people who say "more snow N and W" all the time!

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/12/2019 at 10:26 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Following 0.79" rain yesterday, partly sunny skies prevailed over New York City today. Yesterday's largest rainfall in the greater New York City region was 3.46", which was measured at Oakland (1 SSE), New Jersey.

Today's sunshine concluded with a picturesque Manhattanhenge sunset.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving for at least a period of time.

The SOI was -20.19 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.801. Blocking will likely persist through July 20.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 11, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.482 (RMM). The July 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.392.

The first half of July remains on course to wind up much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. Based on the latest guidance, the July 1-15 mean temperature will likely range from 78.4° (31st warmest on record) to 79.2° (16th warmest on record) in New York City where daily recordkeeping began in 1869.

The second half of July is very likely to be warmer than normal in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 79.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 74%.

1993 was amazing, we had 39 days of 90+ (tied 1991) and three straight days of 100 and above!

The records for that summer were easily broken in 2010 though (despite what the Central Park badly sited equipment might say.)

btw there was a half Manhattanhenge yesterday!

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And I saw my first 2 killer wasps this morning

With our warming climate just hope you dont see the super nests that have become commonplace in Alabama- those super nests are the size of SUVs and can hold up to 15,000 wasps!

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 6-weeks on the EURO are hotter than a fireman's helmet or the Battalion Chief's face when he can't find his!     

Could end up with a July/Aug like 1955 or 1980.

or 1993, 1999 or 2010

Don may have to revise his prediction of no 100 degrees until August ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, CIK62 said:

42 YEARS AGO tonight, at 9:31pm was the total power failure!    It was the eve of the start of a 9 day heatwave.

We also had a big black out in August, I think it was 2003?

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, psv88 said:

Lots of fireflies this year. Pretty cool!

I even saw fireflies the other night when it was raining hard- I've never seen that before!

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes this should be the new way we measure heat- not number of 90 degree days.

The higher dew points are far more reflective of our new climate than high temperatures would be.

The higher dewpoints drive the more extreme heat index levels when combined with major heat. We were more fortunate with our 100 degree days from 2010 to 2013. They mostly occurred with dewpoints remaining under 70 degrees. So at least the real feel was less extreme than it could have been. We weren’t as lucky in the 1990’s. The July 15th 1995 100+ degree heat had dewpoints peaking in the low 80’s. So Newark set their record 127 degree heat index. JFK had a heat index around 115 on July 5 1999. Next week into the weekend may be our first 100 degree heat potential combined with 75+ dewpoints since then. Last few years we were able to avoid the 100 degree days with the extreme dewpoints surging to record levels and number of days. Eventually, both will combine again. We’ll have to wait and see if we can verify the two together next week into the weekend.