Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Rain just keeps drying up as it pushes east past NYC, and what's left seems to want to rain itself out where it is. Not optimistic I'll get more than a period of moderate-ish rain. Seems like we're going into typical coastal summer drought mode. Seems like it's starting to make a push northward now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Shhhh! Listen! Do You Want to Know a Secret? The GFS has 13 straight 90 Degree Days, including two 100's, starting tomorrow. Eeeeh. Is that the new GFS? That's because the new one (Now the GFS OP) has a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Few drops in Wading River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Eeeeh. Is that the new GFS? That's because the new one (Now the GFS OP) has a warm bias. Yeah the problem wasn't fixed on the new rollout... They took the UHI and over did it, it seems.... Anyway 1.11" here so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 nice moderate rain here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 .70 here in Sheepshead Bay. Much needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Nice rain event here. Avoided flash flooding but had occasional hvy rains. Lightning was great around 8:00pm. Areas around Monmouth must've had a great CTG show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Picked up 1.40" of rain for the day. Current temp 72/DP 71/RH 95% High for the day was 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Finished with 0.38” which I suppose is better than nothing. Month is now at 0.39”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 3 hours ago, doncat said: Yeah the problem wasn't fixed on the new rollout... They took the UHI and over did it, it seems.... Anyway 1.11" here so far today. It's extremely pronounced on the anomaly maps. The entire region can be below average and the cities will be bright red, and that's with 1981-2010 averages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I think it's low. EWR might have some shot. A better shot might exist in August (except for tree-covered Central Park). Yes lately we've been getting our hot weather on a wind that comes off the ocean, back in 2013 JFK actually recorded a 100 when Central Park did not. We haven't seen that kind of summer here lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 8 hours ago, jm1220 said: Rain just keeps drying up as it pushes east past NYC, and what's left seems to want to rain itself out where it is. Not optimistic I'll get more than a period of moderate-ish rain. Seems like we're going into typical coastal summer drought mode. How is the ocean doing this now- the waters are much warmer now. We did get close to an inch of rain in SW Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Weather stations in parks or more rural areas are fine. But the sensors must be in a clearing so they are not blocked by trees. The big error was moving the thermometer in NYC from an open area of the park to under a canopy. Chris, any idea why they moved it? That right there means they cant go back to look at data from before since the new location breaks the consistency of over 100 years of record keeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 19 hours ago, frankdp23 said: When scientists measure out temps from 100s of years ago (tree rings, etc), the way the central park data is currently is probably more representative to how the vast majority of the planet was (overgrown and not de-forested) . Do we add 2-3 degrees from past temps to match how we measure temps now? Tree ring temperature measurements aren't anywhere near as accurate as meteorological equipment- I'd bet their margin of error is more than 2-3 degrees. Tree rings are used more to differentiate different climate eras rather than measure actual temperatures. In any case, moving the equipment means older data from when the station first got established can not be used- so the only scientific way to do it is to begin record keeping from 1996- the year in which the equipment was moved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 20 hours ago, bluewave said: September is quickly becoming our 4th month of summer. Notice how the last 8 out of 9 September’s at LGA averaged at 70 degrees or higher. Big jump since the 1980’s. Several recent Septembers were as warm or warmer than June. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Sep Season Mean 73.2 80.0 77.9 71.6 75.8 2010 76.0 82.8 78.6 72.5 77.5 2011 72.7 80.4 76.0 70.7 75.0 2012 72.9 80.4 78.7 70.7 75.7 2013 74.0 81.2 75.8 68.1 74.8 2014 72.5 77.0 75.1 70.4 73.8 2015 71.3 79.2 79.3 74.1 76.0 2016 73.6 81.1 81.6 73.8 77.5 2017 73.6 78.1 75.4 71.5 74.7 2018 72.9 79.8 81.0 72.8 76.6 2019 72.8 80.2 M M 76.5 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Sep Season Mean 71.4 77.0 75.6 68.4 73.1 1980 70.1 78.6 78.1 70.4 74.3 1981 72.6 78.1 75.7 66.4 73.2 1982 66.8 76.3 72.3 66.9 70.6 1983 72.5 78.3 76.7 70.6 74.5 1984 73.6 73.5 76.2 65.6 72.2 1985 68.8 76.6 75.7 70.7 72.9 1986 71.4 76.1 73.4 67.9 72.2 1987 72.9 77.6 74.0 68.1 73.2 1988 72.0 78.6 78.8 67.8 74.3 1989 72.9 76.1 75.3 69.7 73.5 Wasn't there a September in the 80s that was really hot? 1983 I think. That entire year was really hot and rainy! Wow 1980 and 1983 really stand out for consistent heat in the above list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 22 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s not laziness. First of all they are out in Brookhaven. Second, moving the sensor would screw up the data set. Honestly, I could easily go and prune off the vegetation. But I’d be afraid of it getting back to my employer if I get caught. Bring on the rain tonight, I’m really pulling for this one. I like the setup, in comparison to the past few. I think this is a region wide .5” plus. They already screwed up the data set by moving it in 1996 I was talking about it in my previous posts. I also remember a tangible change in Central Park's rankings compared to the other stations beginning after 1995. Now I see their temps are often lower than JFK's (and lower than the south shore of Nassau county) in the summer. I loved this rain we got! I thought it was supposed to rain until 4 am though. Oh well, at least we got close to an inch! I wonder when we'll get another rain like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Next 8 days are averaging 81degs. now, or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[79.0]. Should be +3.7[79.8], by the 20th. GFS is still basically all 90's for the next 16 days. EURO says it ain't gonna happen that way. Example: July 20-102* versus 76*! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: How is the ocean doing this now- the waters are much warmer now. We did get close to an inch of rain in SW Nassau Here there was 0.4-0.5”. The convective activity still fires up inland in most cases and by the time it gets here and pushed east the sun sets and the instability wanes. Also often in the summer storms fire on the sea breeze fronts which are slightly inland, and die off when the daytime instability decreases. It’s very typical for places near the shore to go into a mini drought in the summer here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 7th latest date since 1980 that Newark hasn’t had any major 95 degree or higher major heat. It has been a challenge with the continuing record longest -NAO, clouds, rain, and onshore flow. Newark warmest temperature YTD is 93 degrees. The warmer minimum temperatures continue to lead the departures. July so far at at Newark Max T...+1.9 Min T....+3.4 Avg......+2.6 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1985 08-14 (1985) 96 08-15 (1985) 97 0 2009 08-10 (2009) 95 08-17 (2009) 95 6 1998 07-21 (1998) 95 07-22 (1998) 98 0 2015 07-19 (2015) 98 09-08 (2015) 98 50 1982 07-17 (1982) 95 07-26 (1982) 95 8 1980 07-16 (1980) 96 09-02 (1980) 98 47 1990 07-04 (1990) 97 07-09 (1990) 96 4 2014 07-01 (2014) 95 09-06 (2014) 95 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wasn't there a September in the 80s that was really hot? 1983 I think. That entire year was really hot and rainy! Wow 1980 and 1983 really stand out for consistent heat in the above list. Yeah over 80". 2 feet alone in March and April September was a relatively dry 4.62" but quite warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days are averaging 81degs. now, or 4.5degs. AN. Month to date is +3.1[79.0]. Should be +3.7[79.8], by the 20th. GFS is still basically all 90's for the next 16 days. EURO says it ain't gonna happen that way. Example: July 20-102* versus 76*! What model do you use for your next 8 days in these posts? GFS seems to have a major urban heat issues. The times it forecasts 100s a few days out is unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, frankdp23 said: What model do you use for your next 8 days in these posts? GFS seems to have a major urban heat issues. The times it forecasts 100s a few days out is unreal. I use the GFSx. It has a normal cut now of 68 to 85. On the WeatherBell site the GFS T Graphic, it is virtually all 90's for the next 16. Last June 28 it showed all 90's and five 100's in a row, twice eclipsing the 106 degree All-Time-Record. Reality was a high of 96* during the period. It is as whacky as a Jack Nicholson character, and nurse Ratchet is busy preparing an especially efficacious elixir ot Thorizine and Lithium right now! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 12, 2019 Author Share Posted July 12, 2019 Yesterday was the 5th day with the dewpoint reaching 75 degrees this year at JFK. Only 5 more needed for the first consecutive 4 years with 10 or more days. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 2.05". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 88/75/97. No complaints at all, feels regular at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Despite the clouds temps still warm and some of the warmer spots may snatch another 90 especially if skies clear a bit more later this afternoon. 1PM; ISP: 87 ACY: 87 New Brunswick: 86 PHL: 86 BLM: 86 JFK: 85 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 TTN: 85 NYC: 84 EWR: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 2 in the same town in NJ in a week New York Metro Weather @nymetrowx 3m3 minutes ago MoreJUST IN: NWS confirms that damage in Mount Laurel, NJ on Thursday evening was caused by an EF-1 tornado with maximum wind speeds of 90mph. This is the second tornado in Mount Laurel within a week. More details to follow. #njwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 Only .5 in wantagh. Brutal right now on the uws. Fall can’t come soon enough for me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 88 here now, was 89 earlier. I see the park is at 82, 3 below the next coolest reading in the area...complete joke and predictable after the rain. Even FOK is 87 FFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2019 Share Posted July 12, 2019 2PM; EWR: 89 LGA: 88 ACY: 88 ISP: 87 New Brunswick: 87 PHL: 87 JFK: 87 TEB: 87 BLM: 86 TTN: 86 NYC: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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