bluewave Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Discuss... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 30, 2019 Share Posted June 30, 2019 Looks like more heat similar to what we just had coming up mid/late this week with a chance of rain/storms. Mt.Holly: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Synoptic Overview: The mid-lvl low will have cleared the area by the start of the period, and generally zonal mid-lvl flow will then prevail for most of the extended as the area finds itself on the northern periphery of an increasing flat ridge centered over the SE US. Active weather will largely be driven diurnally-driven convection aided by weak convectively- enhanced waves interacting with nearby weak thermal boundaries. Specifics regarding precipitation chances are difficult in this regime as precipitation will largely be in the form of diurnal convection with dynamic forcing being weak due to a lack of appreciable height/temperature gradients (and resulting flow). Dailies: Monday... Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week as high pressure briefly builds in SW of the area. High temperatures will generally be in the 80s (with dewpoints only reaching around 60) with limited clouds, and fairly light winds. Tuesday... A weak shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Last night`s 00Z guidance were in fairly good agreement that this system would be fairly weak and arrive Tuesday morning. The Euro and Canadian still retain this solution, however the NAM and GFS have trended slower with the system, holding off until Tuesday afternoon/evening. This would potentially lead to stronger precipitation due to better diurnal-convective timing. Although I added slight Chc.PoPs Tuesday PM to account for these new solutions, generally left higher PoPs (still only Chc.) for Tuesday AM. High temperatures will run about 5 degrees warmer than Monday with winds remaining light. Wednesday... Moisture will be on the increase into Wednesday however guidance is not in agreement on if it will yet be sufficient to initiate diurnal convection Wednesday PM (therefore went with only Slight Chc. PoPs) Temperatures will remain warm with highs generally in the 90s outside of the coast and higher elevation areas. Thursday-Saturday... Sufficient Moisture (PWATs near or above 2 inches, dewpoints at or above 70) should be present by the end of the week to support (at least) scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day. It will also become increasing muggy and heat indices approaching 100 will be possible for portions of the urban corridor Friday and Saturday. On the plus side (after the last couple of days) the organized severe threat looks limited due to very weak flow (at all levels). Given the abundant moisture and weak flow there may be somewhat of a hydro threat, however, it is currently too far out to say for sure. && Upton: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Region will be on the northern edge of southern ridging, with a relatively active flow mid to late week. Models signaling flattening of the ridge this weekend as Hudson`s Bay low begins to slide into Quebec and exert more influence on Great lakes and Northeast. Generally increasingly warm and humid conditions Wed through Fri, with a low to moderate potential for heat indices to reach 95 degrees for NYC/NJ metro and surroundings Thursday thru Saturday. Potential for afternoon convection Thu and Fri. At this point, the bulk of this convective activity and even possible MCS`s appear more likely to the south of the area, based on ridge orientation, but will have to monitor. Better chance for organized convection may come next weekend with approach of cold front, but low predictability this far out. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Is this going to be more borderline hot weather where we barely make it into the low 90s? Offshore winds so low humidity again? Except for Saturday which was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 The first 8 days of July are averaging 79.5degs., or 4degs. AN. Top Ten territory for July is 79.6 to 81.4, or +3.1 to +4.9. Average is 76.5. 67.3* here at 6am. 73.5* by 10am. 77.5* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 65/55 here. Great start to July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Last year on this day I hit 99°, with dews in the mid 70’s my heat index peaked at 115°. Currently 84/63, stark difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Weather for the 4th looking pretty good for outdoor plans, other than the fact that it will be uncomfortable with the humidity. Models are showing just isolated t-storms, and mainly well west of NYC. Should be dry for cookouts and fireworks in most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Weather for the 4th looking pretty good for outdoor plans, other than the fact that it will be uncomfortable with the humidity. Models are showing just isolated t-storms, and mainly well west of NYC. Should be dry for cookouts and fireworks in most areas. Pway puts on a pretty nice display for the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Current temp 87/DP 60/RH 35% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2019 Author Share Posted July 1, 2019 We should get a break from the typical first week of July major heat. The only years this decade that didn’t go 95+ at Newark were 2017 and 2015. Newark, NJ Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Tstrms Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy 68/89 72/91 72/89 73/89 74/90 73/87 69/85 00/30 40/30 30/30 30/50 50/40 40/40 40/30 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 7 Missing Count 2018-07-07 98 0 2017-07-07 90 0 2016-07-07 95 0 2015-07-07 91 0 2014-07-07 96 0 2013-07-07 96 0 2012-07-07 102 0 2011-07-07 97 0 2010-07-07 103 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 1, 2019 Share Posted July 1, 2019 Euro and EPS keep the southeast ridge in check. Hopefully this holds up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 79degs., or 3.5degs. AN. 70.3* here at 6am. 86.5* by 2pm and mostly overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 We just tied the record for longest -NAO streak on record at 68 days so far. All the high pressure to our north will allow a SE onshore flow July 4th. Instead of the major 95+ heat than can be typical on a SW to W flow around the 4th at places like EWR and LGA. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1145949327103336450 Today marks the 68th day of negative North Atlantic Oscillation period. Among with 2011, this is the longest -NAO stretch on record (thread below). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Power crews and tree crews making slow progress still. On my way out of my hood this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 37 minutes ago, psv88 said: Power crews and tree crews making slow progress still. On my way out of my hood this morning: Just imagine if a hurricane hit the island. Amazing how long it takes utility crews to get a localized area back up and running after a tstorm. Question whether anything was learned from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Just imagine if a hurricane hit the island. Amazing how long it takes utility crews to get a localized area back up and running after a tstorm. Question whether anything was learned from Sandy. Yea i mean you have a small 25 square mile area that was hit, at best, probably closer to 20 sq miles, the worst areas probably in a 15 sq mile radius, in the largest metro area in the country, and it takes this long? Something isnt right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 toasty 88 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 the negative nao continues...I think it's the longest negative streak in a long time...the 1960's had a few long streaks but it was during the winter months...the greatest neg run looks like it started on Nov. 29th 1968 to March 27th 1969...116 of 119 days with a neg nao...only Dec 13th 1968 and Feb 9th-10th 1969 were positive days...Feb 9th-10th, 1969 was the date of the Lindsay storm that gave JFK over 20" of cement... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Clouds have rolled in. Might keep us below 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 1 hour ago, uncle W said: the negative nao continues...I think it's the longest negative streak in a long time...the 1960's had a few long streaks but it was during the winter months...the greatest neg run looks like it started on Nov. 29th 1968 to March 27th 1969...116 of 119 days with a neg nao...only Dec 13th 1968 and Feb 9th-10th 1969 were positive days...Feb 9th-10th, 1969 was the date of the Lindsay storm that gave JFK over 20" of cement... This is the new record. I posted the link above. Another big -NAO drop coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 can't wait for the NAO to go strongly positive 12/1..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: can't wait for the NAO to go strongly positive 12/1..... Wouldn't that be great---Lets see if we can have a warm, snowfree winter. That would be tremendous 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 A record-setting -NAO in May and June is quite the nasty gut punch after the garbage winter we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: A record-setting -NAO in May and June is quite the nasty gut punch after the garbage winter we had. Just as a cake needs more than flour to be a cake, we'd need more than just a -NAO to get a cold and snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 59 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Wouldn't that be great---Lets see if we can have a warm, snowfree winter. That would be tremendous some heads will pop off here if there's 2 garbage winters in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 a neg nao is no guarantee the winter will be snowy...the 1962-63 winter is a good example of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: some heads will pop off here if there's 2 garbage winters in a row... Just as long as it doesn't snow before December 1, we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 Just now, TriPol said: Just as long as it doesn't snow before December 1, we'll be fine. That does seem to be the kiss of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 2, 2019 Author Share Posted July 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, uncle W said: a neg nao is no guarantee the winter will be snowy...the 1962-63 winter is a good example of that... The consolation is we haven’t had very cold and dry winters in recent times. All our colder winters since 2000-2001 have been snowy. We were so dry in the 60’s, that a really cold winter 62-63 could turn out with below average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 2, 2019 Share Posted July 2, 2019 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That does seem to be the kiss of death It is weird how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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