Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1298.html temps are 78 to 80 pan-wide and the sky's trying desperately to open more. But ...their reasoning is contained... It echoes what we've been talking about re the sun/limitations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1298.html temps are 78 to 80 pan-wide and the sky's trying desperately to open more. But ...their reasoning is contained... It echoes what we've been talking about re the sun/limitations... The sun's attempts here are failing miserably. A few peeks and then back to overcast. I'm calling it. We're toast--at least for this neck of the woods. Maybe tomorrow will perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 There is plenty of cape available (~2k j/kg or higher) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 There is plenty of sfc CAPE available but MLCAPE is a much different story (except eastern areas). Llvl moisture overall isn’t that impressive. 850 dews under 10C. Still a bit of MLCIN too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We are open field camping at 2200' so I'm really hoping for a complete fail on the storms. savoy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Petty big storm might make it close to here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 3K was a fail 2 hours out, cmon its a convective model designed for local convection. It blew its load. Get real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 3K was a fail 2 hours out, cmon its a convective model designed for local convection. It blew its load. Get real I wouldn't say it's designed specifically to model local convection, it's a downscaled version of the 12km NAM that CAN resolve convection. I would trust the models that were specifically designed to model convection first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 Thunderstorm popping up nearly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 averaging 83/70 around the Davis' within a couple clicks of mi casa ... The sun popped out for a jiff about 30 minutes ago and that seemed to trigger CU eruption. Dark bases spread over head out of no where. I can also seen towers N-W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 You can see those towers over my area of Middlesex CO on vis imagery ... those are close to cutting through - wouldn't shock me if those take off for the N. shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 First thunder of the aftn Vivid blue c/g in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Micro cell gave us one flash of lightning and a quick downpour. Next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 Finally, a real thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Micro cell gave us one flash of lightning and a quick downpour. Next Actually a decent core just crossing 495 to your east. Headed for Woburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: Actually a decent core just crossing 495 to your east. Headed for Woburn. Got that out just before BOX issued the warning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 warned ... told ya to watch that cluster - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 What are risks w That cell moving thru Bedford, Ma area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: What are risks w That cell moving thru Bedford area I'd say mostly a risk for an isolated downburst as the core collapses. Didn't get so high that I think large hail is really a threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Shear is still pretty marginal down that way, so a straight up/straight down pulse is the most likely evolution for the time being. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-6C39ABC6-7156-4FB8-9329-038841179C95.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-6C39ABC6-7156-4FB8-9329-038841179C95.pdf Great remark: Thunderstorm followed by a tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Shear is still pretty marginal down that way, so a straight up/straight down pulse is the most likely evolution for the time being. yeah ... was thinking pulse being our fun-show ... we got some velocity shear mid way up CBs as they were leaners when first glaciating... but below 10k seems unorganized. DP busted high east of the Berks ( as far as I can tell..) and that's probably given us a CAPE boost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Storm in RI now has over 50 dBZ over 38 kft. That's pretty impressive for these parts. MRMS suggesting hail over 1 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 Tree(s) and wires down on Billerica scanner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Storm in RI now has over 50 dBZ over 38 kft. That's pretty impressive for these parts. MRMS suggesting hail over 1 inch. Nice Marine warning. Fun on the Bay. If this was late August, our son could watch it from campus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Nice looking cell up towards RI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2019 Share Posted June 29, 2019 Just noticed a nice stationary blob of dBZ, looks like they threw up a wind turbine off RT 14 in Johnston and it's very visible for KBOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 29, 2019 Author Share Posted June 29, 2019 One last shot, overhead to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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