weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Next day 2 outlook at 1:30 local time might be interesting? I think it could get cut south quite a bit. I don't think we see any higher probabilities either. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think it could get cut south quite a bit. I don't think we see any higher probabilities either. 12z HIRES NAM is quite robust with the surface CAPE over SE MA and RI on Saturday and again on Sunday. Sunday looks like a potentially damaging hail event as the H5 low moves through the flow with a strong disturbance on the southside of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 1730 is meh for all... even for us near DC ...Northeast States... A cold front will advance southeast through the Northeast States within a northwesterly flow regime associated with an amplifying eastern U.S. upper trough. The pre-frontal warm sector will become moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and storms are expected to intensify along the front from PA into southern New England by mid day or early afternoon. Belt of modest westerly (30-35 kt) deep layer winds and the destabilizing boundary layer will promote a few strong to severe gusts as activity develops southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: JB!! There's nothing similar about the set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: There's nothing similar about the set up Yeah...I took the bate for like 2 minutes of my life and bothered to open up NCEP weather-charts Library site. Only a very brief gander at the 1953 June 9--> 10 charts exposes either A, typical JB doing JB promotional propaganda ... or B, he's off. Either way...irresponsible. Low and behold, there's very little if any analog value there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 12Z 3K NAM has storms rotating from coastal Maine into my area on Sunday evening. Interesting set up if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 I think tomorrow is going to be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 29 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I think tomorrow is going to be pretty good. I believe Sunday will be worst for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 I think tomorrow is going to be garbage. 1) the pre-frontal trough moves through too early...you can see the wind shift occur between 11-1 PM. This will spark off some activity, but we won't have realized maximum instability. Now if you look behind the wind shift...you'll notice temperatures continue to increase and warm well into the 80's...this is a product of sun (duh!) and the flow becoming more westerly. 2) If the cold front was lagging much farther behind the pre-frontal this would allow some time for winds to become more SW...the significance of this is moisture/Td's. As I mentioned...the W flow will decrease dews. Sunday could be really fun...especially eastern SNE where stronger moisture convergence will reside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 My expectations are in check, its NE "severe"after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I believe Sunday will be worst for SNE. Yeah, though that may depend which particular backyard you are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Yeah, though that may depend which particular backyard you are in. Eastern shoreline of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Tomorrow’s the big day in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 I may eat a huge plate of crow, but we'll see. BOX seems more than "meh" .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Shortwave moves through the upper flow and drives a cold front through Southern New England. Conditions will remain unstable through the day. Model CAPEs build to 2000-3000 J/Kg which is impressive for Southern New England. Highest values are expected over CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Favorable instability is also reflected in other indices... Totals around 50, Mid level lapse rates around 6.5, and Lifted Indices well below zero. HREF probability of 0-3 Km Helicity over 100 is 80 percent...over 200 is 30 percent. Winds at 850 mb reach 30 kt, while at 500 mb they reach 40-45 kt. Most of this and other values suggest a potential for strong storms. The values, and the timing of the cold front, favor Northern MA in the morning and CT-RI-SE Mass in the afternoon. Strong wind gusts are the prime concern, but a storm that develops sufficient helicity could generate large hail. We are adding stronger wording to the thunderstorm forecast based on these potentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Make sure the basement stairs are clear of all the empty beer bottles so you don't trip and fall down the stairs in haste when the EF0's start raining down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Box seems interested S of Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Make sure the basement stairs are clear of all the empty beer bottles so you don't trip and fall down the stairs in haste when the EF0's start raining down. Heavy heavy EF0s tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Well... Wiz' raises a valid concern. just experience alone ... I can't count over the years how often I've seen a kind of "dry line" ( it's not... but it's a convergence trough with dry air on the west side not associated with an actual cold front ) that summarily then moves east across the area, whisking the theta-e east early... You spend the afternoon admiring the back wall of tropopausal poking CB's ...envious of Cape. Look at the charts? cold front is still way NW... what gives That's a geographic ( additional charm ) about this area, is that when there is a west or NW wind type warm sector, we get a lee-side veering of the wind.. It creates a convergence zone that extends from roughly HFD-MHT ... thereabouts ...with a line of towers. I have also seen it, however, where this pre- evacuates... you lull, and then the atmosphere recharges. Also, there are other factors.. Hill and mountain perturbation triggers can send storms SE ...and with synoptic accent increasing toward the end of the day, it's also not a big leap to see a second or even tertiary cluster get going from eastern NY thru western Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: My expectations are in check, its NE "severe"after all. Yup, and my area is still in TS-avoidance mode. Yesterday's warned storm was in Carthage, 20 miles WNW with 60 dbz pixels and headed right toward the house. Then it lateraled the energy 10 miles to the south and dumped hail to 1.25" in Livermore Falls. We got distant grumbles and 0.02". I don't think lightning has hit within 5+ miles of our house since last August. Just had a compact little TS pass maybe 2 miles north of the office - dry outside but I think the hospital 3 miles north had a brief spate of RA++. I expect no less (meaning, no more) from the weekend action, though I'll be content if it decently waters the garden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, dryslot said: Make sure the basement stairs are clear of all the empty beer bottles so you don't trip and fall down the stairs in haste when the EF0's start raining down. That's your best wx related post in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Looks fine to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks fine to me. Wild one ahead tomorrow. You are the SNE severe wx expert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wild one ahead tomorrow. You are the SNE severe wx expert Sunday's cold pool could be fun too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 Sunday is going to be a very nice day, shades of 2008? was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Sunday is going to be a very nice day, shades of 2008? was it 2009... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 41 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Sunday's cold pool could be fun too. I'm gaining interest... starting to remind me of last weekend - Saturday I think it was... We had some marble hailers around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 2009... Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Thank you. Glad I was living in Iowa for that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Glad I was living in Iowa for that one. Where in IA? I spent a lot of time in CID as a company I worked for for 12 years or so was hq'd there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2019 Share Posted June 28, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Where in IA? I spent a lot of time in CID as a company I worked for for 12 years or so was hq'd there. I lived in Davenport (worked at DVN) from 2008-2011. So that was all part of my CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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