July 2019 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal values for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

deadline is 06z Monday July 1st. 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +1.7

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.5

ORD: +0.7

ATL: +1.4

IAH: +0.3

DEN: -0.2

PHX: +0.9

SEA: +1.0

[JakkelWx]

DCA: +1.9

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +0.6

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +2.1

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +1.4

SEA: +1.2

[Roger Smith]

+2.2 __ +1.8 __ +2.0 ___ +1.5 __ +1.0 ___ 0.0 ____ --0.5 __ +1.1 __ +0.4

[wxallannj]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +1.9

ORD: +0.4

ATL: +1.6

IAH: +1.7

DEN: -1.1

PHX: +1.2

SEA: +2.2

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.2      1.2     0.6        1.0     1.0     0.3      -0.4     0.3    1.5

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +1.6

NYC:  +1.3

BOS:  +1.1

ORD:  -0.2

ATL:  +0.8

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  -0.7

PHX:  +0.7

SEA:  +1.7

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0     0.5        0.0      1.5     1.5      1.0     1.0       1.0 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.7      1.2     1.0        0.2     1.1     0.3      -0.6     0.4    1.8 

[smerby]

DCA +2.0 _ NYC +2.0 _ BOS  +1.8__ ORD -0.08 _ ATL +1.5 _ IAH +0.5__ DEN -1.0 _ PHX +1.0 _ SEA +2.0

[bkviking]

DCA:  +1.9

NYC:  +1.9

 BOS:  +1.5

ORD:  +0.5

ATL:  +1.1

IAH:  +0.9

DEN:  -0.2

PHX:  +1.2

SEA:  +2.4

On time! Miracles!!! 

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.2

NYC:  +0.9

 BOS:  +1.1

ORD:  -0.2

ATL:  +1.5

IAH:  +1.1

DEN:  +0.5

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  +1.6

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts July 2019

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

wxallannj __________________+2.2 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +0.4 _+1.6 _+1.7 ___ --1.1_+1.2 _+2.2

Roger Smith ________________+2.2 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +1.5 _+1.0 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.1 _+0.4

smerby ____________________+2.0 _+2.0 _+1.8 __ --0.8 _+1.5 _+0.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+2.0

BKViking ___________________+1.9 _+1.9 _+1.5 __ +0.5 _+1.1 _+0.9 ___ --0.2 _+1.2 _+2.4

Jakkelwx __________________ +1.9 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +0.6 _+1.1 _+2.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.4 _+1.2

hudsonvalley21 _____________ +1.7 _+2.0 _+1.5 __ +0.7 _+1.4 _+0.3 ___ --0.2 _+0.9 _+1.0

 

___ Consensus _____________ +1.7 _+1.5 _+1.3 __ +0.4 _+1.1 _+0.5 ___ --0.4 _+1.0 _+1.6

 

RodneyS ___________________+1.7 _+1.2 _+1.0 __ +0.2 _+1.1 _+0.3 ___ --0.6 _+0.4 _+1.8

wxdude64 _________________ +1.6 _+1.3 _+1.1 __ --0.2 _+0.8 _+0.6 ___ --0.7 _+0.7 _+1.7

DonSutherland1 _____________+1.2 _+1.2 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.4 _+0.3 _+1.5

Tom _______ (-5%) _________+1.2 _+0.9 _+1.1 __ --0.2 _+1.5 _+1.1 ___ +0.5 _+1.1 _+1.6

Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0

___ Normal __________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0

================================================================

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, but Normal is lowest for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL (tied IAH), PHX and SEA.

Welcome smerby and Jakkelwx. 

(consensus is median value, 6th ranked of eleven forecasts).

[Roger Smith]

First report on anomalies and forecasts ... 

 

________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_ 8d _____ (anom) _______ +2.8 _+3.7 _+6.1 __ +4.5 _+3.9 __0.0 ___ --0.3 _+0.4 __0.0

_ 8d _____ (p14d) ________+0.4 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +0.2

_ 8d _____ (p24d) ________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.4

[Roger Smith]

Update on anomaly tracker and forecasts, with seasonal MAX values shown. Will link those to contest later this month. 

________________________DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_ 7th ____ (anom) _______ +2.8 _+3.7 _+6.1 __ +4.5 _+3.9 __0.0 ___ --0.3 _+0.4 __0.0

14th _____(anom) _______ +1.4 _+3.0 _+5.5 __ +3.9 _+3.6 _+1.3 ___ +0.4 _+1.5 _+1.4

21st _____ (anom) _______ +2.9 _+3.6 _+6.3 __ +4.8 _+3.4 _+1.5 ___ +1.4 _+2.1 _+1.4 

28th _____ (p28d) _______ +2.0 _+2.8 _+4.7 __ +3.8 _+2.3 _+0.4 ___ +1.4 _+2.2 _+1.8 

 

_ 8th ____ (p14d) ________+0.4 _+2.5 _+4.0 __ +2.5 _+2.0 _+2.0 ____ 0.0 _+0.5 _+0.2

15th _____ (p21d) ________+2.7 _+3.7 _+7.0 __ +5.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 ___ +1.5 _+2.3 _+1.0 

 

22nd _____ (p28d) _______ +1.8 _+2.2 _+4.5 __ +4.0 _+2.1 _+0.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.3 _+2.2 

 

_ 8th ____ (p24d) ________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.4

15th _____ (p31d) ________+1.5 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +3.0 _+2.3 _+0.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

22nd _____ (p31d) _______ +2.2 _+2.0 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+1.6 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.4 _+1.9

29th _____ (p31d) _______ +2.2 _+3.0 _+4.0 __ +3.5 _+2.1 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.9 _+1.9

1 Aug __ final anomalies __ +2.3 _+3.1 _+5.3 __ +3.1 _+2.0 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.9 _+1.8

 

MAX to date ______________ 99 __ 95 __ 98 ____ 95 __ 95 __ 97 _____101 __ 115 __ 95 

_____________________________________

15th _ Predictions for past week assessed as medium with average error (compare red lines) 1.03 deg. Next week looking hot in most areas except SEA. The end of month projections carry low confidence as GFS introduces considerably cooler regime to central and eastern US and have estimated -1 anomalies for 22nd-31st for eastern locations, continued heat in west (warmer end of month for SEA). Will post some preliminary scoring if these late cooling trends appear to be holding after a few more days. Otherwise the actuals could end up well above most forecasts. ... edit 16th, PHX new max of 114 on 15th. 

17th _ PHX edged up to 115, NYC tied previous max of 91, on 16th.

18th _ NYC moved up to 93 on 17th. DEN prelim high of 99 on 18th. 

19th _ DEN moved up to 101 today.

20th _ DCA, NYC, BOS and ORD all moved up in seasonal max today. 

21st _ DCA and BOS moved up again today. 

22nd _ The previous week forecast had the highest accuracy rating I can recall, average error only 0.28 deg F. The coming week looks a bit cooler than average in many of the locations which will bring the anomalies down towards the high end of our forecast range. It seems that IAH will come in near the low end, so all nine stations could be in play for an extreme forecast. Scoring will be adjusted from the values posted yesterday as some provisionals are now well above high forecast, notably BOS and ORD. 

29th _ Some problems with the data base at NWS for BOS, ORD and DEN, could not update their anomalies this morning, but now updated. Have adjusted NYC, ATL and PHX provisionals. All appear to be headed higher than high forecast now so this generally reduces all scores by the same amount (except that Tom with late penalties drops less). BOS may be headed for max-60 scoring (rank ordered, at the moment there is a raw 60, if the max slips below that, we go to best of rank order scoring or raw scores, whichever higher -- with eleven forecasts, this will be 60, 54, 48, 42, 36, 30, 24, 18, 12, 6, 0 but looks like lower ones would be raw scores in that case so higher than the progression). This could also happen at ORD. 

1st __ Final anomalies posted, scoring updated by noon EDT. 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for July 2019

_ fBOS scored by rank order (max score 60) with lowest three scores higher for raw scores as indicated by *.

 

FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west ___ TOTAL (all nine)

 

Roger Smith ________________98 _ 74 _ 60__ 232 __ 68_ 80 _ 90 __ 238__470__60 _ 84 _ 72 __ 216_____ 686

hudsonvalley21 ______________88 _ 78_ 42 __ 208 __ 52 _ 88 _ 96 __ 236__444__ 66 _ 80 _ 84 __ 230 _____ 674

BKViking ___________________ 92 _ 76 _ 42 __ 210 __ 48 _ 82 _ 92 __ 222__432__ 66 _ 86 _ 88 __ 240 _____ 672

wxallannj __________________ 98_ 78 _ 54 __ 230 __ 46 _ 92 _ 76 __ 214__444__ 48 _ 86 _ 92 __ 226 _____ 670

smerby ____________________ 94 _ 78_ 48 __ 220 __ 22 _ 90 _100__212__432__ 50 _ 82 _ 96 __ 228 _____ 660

 

___ Consensus ______________88 _ 68 _ 30 __ 186 __ 46 _ 82 _100__ 228__414__ 62 _ 82 _ 96 __ 240 _____ 654

 

Jakkelwx ___________________ 92 _ 68 _ 30 __ 190 __ 50 _ 82 _ 68 __ 200__390__ 80_ 90_ 88 __ 258 _____ 648

RodneyS ___________________ 88 _ 62 _ 17*__ 167 __ 42 _ 82 _ 96 __ 220__387__ 58 _ 70_100__ 228 _____ 615

wxdude64 __________________86 _ 64 _ 24 __ 174 __ 34 _ 76 _ 98 __ 208__382__ 56 _ 76 _ 98 __ 230 _____ 612

DonSutherland1 _____________ 78 _ 62 _ 09*__ 149 __ 58 _ 80 _ 96 __ 234__383__ 62 _ 68 _ 94 __ 224 _____ 607

Scotty Lightning _____________ 74 _ 58 _ 07*__ 139 __ 38 _ 90 _ 80 __ 208__347__ 90 _ 82 _ 84 __ 256 _____ 603

____ Tom __________________ 78 _ 56 _ 24 __ 158 __ 34 _ 90 _ 88 __ 212__370__ 80 _ 84 _ 96 __ 260 _ 630

Tom _______ (-5%) __________74 _ 53 _ 23 __ 150 __ 32 _ 86 _ 84 __ 202__352__ 76 _ 80 _ 91 __ 247 _____ 599

 

___ Normal ________________ 54 _ 38 _ 00 __ 092 __ 38 _ 60 _ 90 __ 188__280__ 70 _ 62 _ 64 __ 196 _____ 476

____________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts

Seven of nine locations qualify with highest forecast(s) also high scores. 

DCA, BOS and ORD are wins for Roger Smith. Wxallannj shares DCA.

NYC is a win for wxallannj, hudsonvalley21 and smerby.

ATL is a win for wxallannj.

DEN is a win for Scotty Lightning.

PHX is a win for jakkelwx, if they enter fewer than three this year, BKViking and wxallannj will add wins (regular participants rule).

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<<< ===== ----- ----- ----- ----- Annual Contest Scoring Jan-July 2019 ----- ----- ----- ----- ===== >>>>>

 

A new look for the annual table this year, will continue with the all nine format of monthly scoring. Best score tallies will be handled in a separate table. From now to end of 2019, best scores will be tabulated for the eleven regular participants and this will continue with any new or temporary additions getting best scores in addition to those. 

Highest cumulative scores are shown in red in this table (for nine locations) or bold for subtotals. 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS __east__ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA __west___all 9 TOTAL

 

RodneyS ________________ 465 _554 _495__1514 __444 _484 _602__1530__3044__495 _472 _452__1419___4463

DonSutherland.1 __________445 _580 _423 __1448 __410 _444 _596 __1450 __ 2898 __ 451 _518_ 448__1417___4315

 

___ Consensus ___________507_ 594 _486 __1587__424 _440 _568 __1432 __ 3019 __ 411 _464 _402 __1277 ___4296

 

wxdude64 _______________481 _559 _457 __1497 __477_394 _551 __1422 __ 2919 __ 436 _451 _399 __1286____4205

wxallannj ________________500 _514 _512 __1526 __362 _488 _552 __1402 __2928 __ 366 _466 _392 __1224 ____4152

hudsonvalley21 ___________445 _608 _506__1559 __386 _472 _562 __1420 __2979 __ 307 _470 _378 __1165 ____4144

Roger Smith _____________ 510 _530 _468 __1508 __382 _382 _512 __1276 __2784 __ 487 _406 _390 __1283 ____4067

BKViking ________________ 507 _588 _488 __1583__396 _396 _519 __1311 __2894 __ 344 _414 _375 __1133 ____4027

Scotty Lightning ___________445 _534 _475 __1454 __374 _450 _532 __1356 __2810 __ 300 _404 _344 __1048 ____3858

Tom ____________________401 _523 _405 __1329 __ 442 _332 _552 __1326 __2655 __333 _448 _375 __1156 ____3811

___ Normal ______________ 342 _546 _430 __1318 __412 _322 _560 __1294 __2602 __ 299 _479 _301__1079 ____3691

Stebo (4/7) ______________ 283 _327 _310 __ 920 __242 _219 _275 __ 736 __1656 __ 227 _217 _125 ___ 569 ____2225

RJay (4/7) _______________ 162 _246 _216 __ 624 __256 _185 _288 __ 729 __1353 __ 263 _279 _188 ___ 730 ____2083

tplbge (1/7) ______________  90 __ 94 __ 78 __ 262 __ 46 __ 80 _100 __ 226 ___ 492 ___72 __ 88 __32 __ 192 ____684

smerby (1/7) ______________94 __ 78 __ 48 __ 220 __ 22 __ 90 _100 __ 212 ___432 ___50 __ 82 __ 96 __ 228 ____660

Jakkelwx (1/7) ____________ 92 __ 68 __ 30 __ 190 __ 50 __ 82 __ 68 __ 200 ___390___ 80 __ 90 __ 88 __ 258 ____648

_______________________________________________________________________

 

Best scores in each category 

_ (nine locations, three regional subtotals, and central-eastern or "original six" subtotal (c/e) as well as all nine).

_ These are best scores in each monthly contest, best total scores are highlighted in the table above in red. Order for best scores will be based on rank in table above.

_ July best scores with * are regular forecaster high scores, wxdude64 for IAH (Smerby, con as shown for IAH), and BKV, wxallannj for PHX (jakkelwx higher) also

___ Tom for west total (jakkelwx higher). 

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine

 

RodneyS _______________ 1 ___1 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 3 ___1 ___1 ___ 3___ 2 ___ 2 ___1 ___1 ___ 2 ____ 2 _ APR,MAY

DonSutherland.1 _________0 ___1 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___3 ___ 1 ____ 0

___Consensus ___________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___0 ___1*___2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___2 ___ 1 ____ 2 __ MAR, JUN

wxallannj _______________1 ___2 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

hudsonvalley21 __________0 ___3 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JAN

Roger Smith ____________ 4 ___0 ___1 ___ 3 ___ 2 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ JUL

BKViking _______________ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1*___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Scotty Lighning __________1 ___0 ___2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ____ 0

Tom ___________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1* ___ 0

___ Normal _____________ 1 ___2 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

Stebo __________________1 ___0 ___1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ FEB

RJay ___________________0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

smerby _________________0 ___1 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 0

jakkelwx ________________0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___0 ___ 1 ____ 0

 

__________________________________________________________________________________

 

Extreme forecasts  

 

STANDINGS to date in 2019

 

Roger Smith _________12-3

RodneyS ____________ 9-4

DonSutherland1 ______ 7-0

wxallannj ____________6-2

Scotty Lightning ______ 4-0

Normal __________ 3-1

Stebo ______________ 3-1

wxdude64 ___________ 3-0

hudsonvalley21 _______3-0

RJay ________________1-0

Tom ________________1-1

tplbge ______________ 1-0

Jakkelwx ____________ 1-0

BKViking ____________ 1-0*

*retained if Jakkelwx plays fewer than three.

______________________________________________________________________________