MNstorms Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Some active days starting yesterday. Today looks like a decent threat in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 Low Tor probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 There may be some elevated severe potential toward the middle/end of next week as a more robust jet is progged to eject into the central/northern Plains, but until then the pattern appears relatively quiet for mid-June standards. Given the orientation of a trough across the eastern half of the country, it is noteworthy that the southern Plains, south of I-40, will see some severe threats today and tomorrow. Areas near the Red River are well past their peak season and usually don’t have much severe activity this late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 measured 80mph wind gusts near Childress, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 Is that really a PDS severe thunderstorm watch I see? Don't think I've ever seen one of those outside of derecho events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 1 minute ago, KSWx said: Is that really a PDS severe thunderstorm watch I see or is it an error? Nope, it's a real PDS STWatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...Western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 160211Z - 160315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...Significant damaging wind threat emerging in western Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Storms that had developed earlier across the Texas Panhandle have grown upscale into a mesoscale convective system/bow echo that is now entering the western tier of counties in Oklahoma. This system has a history of producing significant damaging wind gusts of 80+ mph. Forecast soundings support the maintenance in the short-term, with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture (70F surface dew point temperatures), ample instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and a developing low-level jet. Outflow along the leading edge of the system has thus far kept pace with the convection, suggesting the threat for significant damaging wind gusts will continue for the next couple of hours across southwest Oklahoma and affect central Oklahoma by 04-05 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 SPC even did a special MOD risk upgrade at 0146 UTC due to the damaging wind threat... 0100 OTLK was ENH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 PDS Tor warning we all missed for OK 15 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 22 minutes ago: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 926 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 OKC039-160245- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0100.000000T0000Z-190616T0245Z/ Custer OK- 926 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL CUSTER COUNTY... At 925 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Custer City, moving south at 10 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. ... Locations impacted include... Arapaho and Custer City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3577 9902 3576 9888 3556 9886 3554 9915 TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 008DEG 10KT 3571 9897 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...2.00IN $$ 11 Moving south at 10 mph...hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 This is a bowing squall line that is not producing a lot of storm reports right now. It produced quite a few wind reports earlier. It almost looks like half a hexagon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 Severe squall line in DFW area with possible tornado near Irving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 Possible tornado (radar is TDAL) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 I had a tree uprooted in my west Fort Worth neighborhood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 possible tornado over I-35E junction with I-635. That's got to be a busy place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, Chinook said: possible tornado over I-35E junction with I-635. That's got to be a busy place. Wonder if it produced at all? That warning came and went lightening quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 18, 2019 Author Share Posted June 18, 2019 From a 2% at 1am to 10%. Been awhile since I've seen that. Derecho Thursday night and Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Beatiful looking supercells in the TX Panhandle, the eastern one has a confirmed tornado with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 This storm sounds like fun BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Amarillo TX 842 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Carson County in the Panhandle of Texas... Southeastern Hutchinson County in the Panhandle of Texas... Northwestern Gray County in the Panhandle of Texas... Southwestern Roberts County in the Panhandle of Texas... * Until 930 PM CDT. * At 842 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of Borger, moving southeast at 30 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management. At 837 PM CDT, emergency management reported an 86 mph gust on the southeast side of Borger. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Pampa, Borger, Panhandle, White Deer, Skellytown, Kingsmill and Codman. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 D1 enhhanced for the DFW metro with 5% tor probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 5 hours ago, cheese007 said: D1 enhhanced for the DFW metro with 5% tor probs. SPC added a small 10% area for initial supercell development expected late this afternoon/early evening just northeast of DFW. Larger area of hatched hail/wind probabilities as well. The storms are expected to quickly merge into a southeastward moving severe MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 1.5 million folks in that 10% area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 MOD risk was discussed for 2000 OTLK... but SPC kept the ENH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 What time is initiation looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 In the Tyler area I had a strong line around 5am that later went severe east of me. Looks like some strong storms this evening into tonight again for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon across north-central/northeast Texas. Very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected. Other isolated severe storms are expected from western Tennessee into southern Indiana. ...North-central TX/Arklatex... Note: Some consideration was given to raising severe probs (MDT) across north-central TX. Very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected with convection into the late evening. Strong boundary-layer heating has developed across west TX into the DFW Metroplex where surface temperatures have risen into the mid 90s. This has resulted in a very unstable air mass along southern fringe of influential short-wave trough that will eject into AR this evening. 19z sounding from FWD is quite impressive with PW values >1.6", 40kt surface-6km shear, and steep lapse rates. Latest satellite imagery suggests a festering cumulus field just south of the Red River and thermals are expected to gradually deepen over the next few hours. Scattered supercells will develop and propagate east-southeast this evening through the Metroplex and northeast TX. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected. One or two tornadoes could be noted with discrete activity before clustering leads to a potential MCS this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: In the Tyler area I had a strong line around 5am that later went severe east of me. Looks like some strong storms this evening into tonight again for my area. There was a tornado warning near/west of Marshall, TX and there were reports of wind damage, it wouldn't surprise me to have a survey crew confirm a tornado in that location. I had some strong winds in Longview from that line, but I think the worst winds hit just north of me. Models are showing supercell initiation in the 5-7 PM time frame this evening near and NE of the DFW metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Just a little bit unstable on that 19z FWD sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Better view of it (h/t @radarman ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Mesoscale Discussion 1136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Areas affected...Northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas...and far northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192014Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Low-level southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots continues to advect high theta-e air northward across central and northern Texas in the wake of last night's MCS. A cumulus field has expanded and advected northward on the northern extent of this moisture rich air mass. The 19Z FWD RAOB suggests the air mass has mostly recovered from earlier convective overturning with deep boundary layer moisture and very steep mid-level lapse rates (~8.5-9 C/km) with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures in the low 90s. This combination of a high theta-e air mass beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates has led to an extremely unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 4000 to 4500 J/kg. CINH has been mostly eroded now across this area with less than 50 J/kg on the 19Z FWD sounding. Surface streamline analysis shows the strongest low-level confluence just north of Abilene in the vicinity of an analyzed 1004hPa surface low as of 19Z. Initial convective development may occur in this area as early as 21Z where both buoyancy and mesoscale forcing will be most supportive. Additional storms may form eastward along the instability gradient as surface temperatures approach the convective temperature. In fact, recent 1-min GOES16 imagery shows some deeper towering cumulus development along what appears to be the remnant outflow boundary from the overnight MCS which is now lifting north. Any storms which develop should quickly take on supercell structures given the extreme instability and effective shear around 50 to 60 knots (57 kts FWD 19Z RAOB). Initial storms will pose the greatest threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes while storm mode remains discrete. Weak low-to-mid tropospheric flow will be a limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with the strengthening and elongating low-level hodograph not materializing until after 00Z once storm mode becomes less discrete. However, there is enough low-level cyclonic curvature in the lowest 1 to 2 km to support the potential for a few tornadoes. The environmental variables are very supportive for very large hail, including the potential for giant hail given the extreme instability, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and >50 kts effective shear. The only negative factor to a more widespread threat for giant hail will be the limited duration of a more discrete storm mode. Widespread storm coverage is expected between 00Z and 03Z due to the arrival of the mid-level shortwave trough and a strengthening low-level jet. A very large hail threat will remain for a few hours before the primary threat becomes damaging wind as storms congeal. There is significant wind gust potential given the extreme instability and the the steep mid-level lapse rates with the potential for wind-driven large hail, especially in the 01-04Z timeframe. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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