JakkelWx Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Anything about July? eta: looks like the year without a summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 6, 2019 Share Posted June 6, 2019 Warm season NA blocking Can't wait for the models to tease with advertised blocking that never verifies for the winter months. It has become a tradition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 4 hours ago, JakkelWx said: Anything about July? eta: looks like the year without a summer We've had more than normal snakes this year, and last week my wife called it the year of the snake. I reminded her that the last "year of the snake" led to the "winter of the snow shovel".(2009). Silly, unscientific, banter, but I just wanted it here in writing. Just in case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 Where the F was this pattern in February? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 While there is no big time heat signal anytime soon, the temperatures will still slowly recover back into the upper 80s after say June 15 when the pattern starts to relax and the cooler than normal anomalies become transient. Average high here in late June is about 89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 7, 2019 Author Share Posted June 7, 2019 23 hours ago, frd said: - SOI for weeks plus warm season blocking, etc and you have this - @showmethesnow so far so good but a ways to go to see what August and September bring temp-wise. I still feel we don't go extreme record breaking heat this summer. Very muggy, yes, super hot for days on end, not buying that. Wonder if any correlation to the solar min and this blocking, or simply the role of warm seasonal forces acting on the polar regions producing this outcome as mentioned previously in this thread. By the way, I feel the EPS is impressive for this time of year. Whether this forecast is correct time will tell, however, the signals do support it though. Still thinking below average summer temp wise. But starting to believe that late summer into fall we see an extended period of above to well above temps relative to average for that time of year. That would mean well below avg for most of the summer and we are seeing a good start in that regards. But as you said summer is just kicking off so there is plenty of time to see things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 On 6/5/2019 at 8:37 PM, frd said: and here you go........................ Looks like May to June blocking and less - NAO during the winter ..... I brought up that a few days ago about AGW and this - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 7, 2019 Author Share Posted June 7, 2019 35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Shift the cold anomalies east and put above to well above into the central us and you have my thoughts. Also think the deep se (Florida, Georgia, s Carolina, and possibly n Carolina) all see some bouts of somewhat significant heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 7, 2019 Share Posted June 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Shift the cold anomalies east and put above to well above into the central us and you have my thoughts. Also think the deep se (Florida, Georgia, s Carolina, and possibly n Carolina) all see some bouts of somewhat significant heat. It's going to be interesting to see if we ever verify a "hot" summer. The Deep South and Lower Plains have experienced an anomalously wet spring which may mean they don't bake and can't advect warmer air or EMLs east into us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 7, 2019 Author Share Posted June 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's going to be interesting to see if we ever verify a "hot" summer. The Deep South and Lower Plains have experienced an anomalously wet spring which may mean they don't bake and can't advect warmer air or EMLs east into us. That has to be considered as well though I think that will play a bigger role downstream through our region. Would be curious as to what the source region (SW, N Mexico) for the central US looks in regards to precip anomalies. They were running wet as well? If that is the case then yeah, I think that would cap any meaningful heat through the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 Globe is in a really healthy-life pattern, -NAO +PNA is what I would expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 On 6/6/2019 at 5:09 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Warm season NA blocking Can't wait for the models to tease with advertised blocking that never verifies for the winter months. It has become a tradition. Don't worry, we'll have a raging +NAO just in time for winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Don't worry, we'll have a raging +NAO just in time for winter. That's fine with me because I believe nothing is my new motto. I will not believe or expect anything this winter after the last one. The weather will do as it pleases. But, yes, I can see the NAO being positive for the winter, as it seems the new norm. Why change now. There is some chatter that seems to indicate it is harder to get a -NAO in the winter. But, much easier in the period March to June, or at least is have been the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 Not sure we are going to lose the -NAO any time soon. June is following where May left off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 8, 2019 Share Posted June 8, 2019 It's like a concentration pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's like a concentration pattern. rip Greenland. This will be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 I’m glad i went low in the temp contest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 Chuck are you okay? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 Something to ponder, again take this with a grain of salt, but...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 I know @Eskimo Joe spoke about the -NAO but of you were to believe the progs and the EPS, we may have a very significant -NAO event this coming week and it may last. The EPS is nuts in it's projection for this upcoming week's event. As I mentioned yesterday, June may outdo even the record -NAO of May 2019. The implications may carry over for the entire month of June making it end up normal to below normal. No extreme heat of the horizon for a long time. If any one were to be able to forecast the NAO correctly and apply it to the commodities market and long range forecasts that person would be very famous indeed. Imagine the possibilities for it's use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: I know @Eskimo Joe spoke about the -NAO but of you were to believe the progs and the EPS, we may have a very significant -NAO event this coming week and it may last. The EPS is nuts in it's projection for this upcoming week's event. As I mentioned yesterday, June may outdo even the record -NAO of May 2019. The implications may carry over for the entire month of June making it end up normal to below normal. No extreme heat of the horizon for a long time. If any one were to be able to forecast the NAO correctly and apply it to the commodities market and long range forecasts that person would be very famous indeed. Imagine the possibilities for it's use. Too late, Judah Cohen has already mastered this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 9, 2019 Share Posted June 9, 2019 Wow, look at this -NAO then +PNA pattern It's windy =Aleutian low haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 In the Winter this would give us a SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 June into July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Dr. No get another upgrade, looks like the focus is on the long range, hence the post in here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 I imagine you can use this data/trend/forecast and make the case for several various outcomes. One might be a cooler summer, no extreme heat, another could be a dry and warm late summer. Another could be normal rainfall near the coast and our area and dry in the far Western zones. Just computer modeling and interesting to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Ah..... the El Nino ..... passing the Spring barrier and looking for more accurate long-term Nino forecasts for the Fall. Still way to early , but nonetheless the Euro implies it does last in some fashion through 2019. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted June 17, 2019 Author Share Posted June 17, 2019 5 hours ago, frd said: Ah..... the El Nino ..... passing the Spring barrier and looking for more accurate long-term Nino forecasts for the Fall. Still way to early , but nonetheless the Euro implies it does last in some fashion through 2019. . Yeah, way too early to be overly concerned about the ENSO forecast. One thing I do see is that it looks as if roughly a third of the members are a neutral (+.5 to -.5) with only one member flirting with a Nina. I can deal with a neutral just don't want to see members start moving towards a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 On 6/17/2019 at 12:56 PM, showmethesnow said: Yeah, way too early to be overly concerned about the ENSO forecast. One thing I do see is that it looks as if roughly a third of the members are a neutral (+.5 to -.5) with only one member flirting with a Nina. I can deal with a neutral just don't want to see members start moving towards a Nina. Would love to see a forecast moving toward that elusive pit of gold that is a moderate Niño...Ya know, is is possible to like...save ourselves the seasonal angst and just predict what the winter will look like based on past El nino/la nina/neutral histories? I mean the only true scenario that can go one way or the other is a neutral, right? The rest seem predictable: Weak El Nino: basically will look like what we saw last winter: some snow, but just about "average"--no "big blows" per se, nice scenery snow but nothing major. Mod El Niño: Game on. Strong El Niño: Either one big blizzard or nothing at all. Neutral: Keep tracking because this can be boom or bust. La Niña: Forget it. Don't look at models, forecasts, etc...move to ocean city and New Jersey and further north in order to shovel, lol I mean...is there any point in considering any other factor once we know what the ENSO is gonna be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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