June Mid-Long Range

[showmethesnow]

GEFS long range would imply that it would be fairly active through our region (especially northern areas) for the first half of June. Shows a tendency for NE troughing. Couple that with bouts of Central US as well occasional SE US/Atlantic ridging and that puts our region in the cross hairs. If this were to verify we would probably see a continuation from May of the battle zone for storminess/T storms setting up through the region, though the MD/PA region would probably be favored at this time. Southern and coastal regions of VA down into the deep SE might want to keep an eye out for a stretch or two of decent heat though the temp anomalies don't show it at this time.

Euro on the other hand is more aggressive with building ridging into the East later in the period (at least through 240 hr and looking at the setup would suggest a continuation of that theme beyond). The Euro is the warmer model for the entire region in the extended then the GEFS. Maybe even much more so then the temp anomalies now being spit out might suggest as I think they may be underdone. The Canadian favors the GEFS for the most part as it holds the ridging farther west and we do not see it build into the east as we see on the EPS.

At this time I favor the GEFS. At least until I don't. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-NAO building in, turning to -AO, and we kind of have a legit weather pattern setting up in 13-15 days, let's see what happens.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Monday night looks nice and cold- is the FV3 showing snow yet? Lol

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Signs of Neutral or El Nino ENSO showing up for 2019. It's currently at +0.8

[showmethesnow]

Just looking over the climate models for the summer months (June-Aug) and they probably suggest avg to below avg temps for the summer. 

Below we see the CANSIPs which shows ridging into the central US with troughing down the US seaboard. This setup would suggest heat would be mostly confined to the south central US over into the deep SE. The troughing in the east would suggest cooler then avg temps for our region. And looking at the temp profiles reflects this. An aside here, but that setup would probably favor land-falling tropical systems through the gulf states into the deep SE coastal states. That said you can not exclude the possibility of something farther up the east coast if something gets timed well.

 

This is not the latest run of the CFS but the one from May 31'st so I could do a 3 month avg. CFS is very similar with the broad overall wavelength at 500's. So what was said above stands here as well. But the one thing that I do question is the temp anomaly profile. I just don't buy it. Showing cold deep into the south central US runs counter to what the 500's show and the above anomalies running up the east coast just doesn't fit with the mean trough being located through that region.

 

Looking at both Sept and Oct we see the eastern trough break down and we go into a zonal flow across the US. So if the models are correct our best chances for heat/prolonged heat probably reside in the late summer into early fall time period as the rest of the summer would probably be avg to below avg temps. One other thing of note is that the setup probably argues for a fairly active summer for Thunder Storms/Severe through our region. 

[JakkelWx]

Didn't models show a cooler than normal summer last year? I'm not putting much stock into the three month climate models as that's an obvious no-brainer for me.

[frd]

25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking at both Sept and Oct we see the eastern trough break down and we go into a zonal flow across the US. So if the models are correct our best chances for heat/prolonged heat probably reside in the late summer into early fall time period as the rest of the summer would probably be avg to below avg temps. One other thing of note is that the setup probably argues for a fairly active summer for Thunder Storms/Severe through our region. 

Reflected on some aspects of this in the June discussion thread showme. Good post !  

Agree warmest temps relative to average, and longest duration warmth may indeed happen in the August to even October period.  Also feel we are prone to an above average hurricane threat, indirect or otherwise, during the period early September to mid October . Yeah, not saying much as it is the seasonal peak, but could be interesting given the pattern and the expected very warm SSTs in the SW Atlantic and along the Mid Atlantic surf zones.  

[frd]

@showmethesnow one last thing too about extreme heat in the near term. I think before we see any 95 + degree and long duration heat waves we will need to dry out the areas to our far West and SW , it has been very wet. And for the time being it will remain wet. 

 

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Didn't models show a cooler than normal summer last year? I'm not putting much stock into the three month climate models as that's an obvious no-brainer for me.

Not really sure what they showed last summer as about the only thing I somewhat followed was tropical. As far as following the models or not that is up to the individual. But I am not so sure I would be so quick to throw them out especially when they make sense and somewhat follow one's line of thinking. In this case they mirror my thoughts on what I expect to see this summer so I myself am giving them some weight.

[showmethesnow]

19 minutes ago, frd said:

Reflected on some aspects of this in the June discussion thread showme. Good post !  

Agree warmest temps relative to average, and longest duration warmth may indeed happen in the August to even October period.  Also feel we are prone to an above average hurricane threat, indirect or otherwise, during the period early September to mid October . Yeah, not saying much as it is the seasonal peak, but could be interesting given the pattern and the expected very warm SSTs in the SW Atlantic and along the Mid Atlantic surf zones.  

Really haven't delved into tropical yet this year. Probably later this month into July is when my interest will start perking up. But I will say early indications are somewhat promising for a somewhat active season. Not so sure I am enamored with the pattern we see as far as our chances for our region though. Even when the pattern breaks down and goes zonal later in the summer during prime climo for canes. But it is very rare I am enthused with the pattern so that is nothing new. If we see something of substance it will more then likely occur because of good timing and not because of the mean overall pattern. I will say I do like the chances for deep SE (Georgia, Florida) coastal hits into the gulf states. Think the setup is a good one for them.

[showmethesnow]

26 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnow one last thing too about extreme heat in the near term. I think before we see any 95 + degree and long duration heat waves we will need to dry out the areas to our far West and SW , it has been very wet. And for the time being it will remain wet. 

 

Think Highrisk mentioned this as well? These are kind of my thoughts as well as far as the heat. Of course it also means higher humidity as well so that would offset the somewhat cooler temps. One thing that all this moisture might also mean is more fuel for Thunder storms/severe as well. With the trough setup in the east the higher moisture is another reason I think we see an active severe season deep into the summer.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just looking over the climate models for the summer months (June-Aug) and they probably suggest avg to below avg temps for the summer. 

Below we see the CANSIPs which shows ridging into the central US with troughing down the US seaboard. This setup would suggest heat would be mostly confined to the south central US over into the deep SE. The troughing in the east would suggest cooler then avg temps for our region. And looking at the temp profiles reflects this. An aside here, but that setup would probably favor land-falling tropical systems through the gulf states into the deep SE coastal states. That said you can not exclude the possibility of something farther up the east coast if something gets timed well

 

This is not the latest run of the CFS but the one from May 31'st so I could do a 3 month avg. CFS is very similar with the broad overall wavelength at 500's. So what was said above stands here as well. But the one thing that I do question is the temp anomaly profile. I just don't buy it. Showing cold deep into the south central US runs counter to what the 500's show and the above anomalies running up the east coast just doesn't fit with the mean trough being located through that region

 

Looking at both Sept and Oct we see the eastern trough break down and we go into a zonal flow across the US. So if the models are correct our best chances for heat/prolonged heat probably reside in the late summer into early fall time period as the rest of the summer would probably be avg to below avg temps. One other thing of note is that the setup probably argues for a fairly active summer for Thunder Storms/Severe through our region. 

Can't go against recent trends for a warmer than average SE.

[frd]

Its out there in time , but wondering whether we see rainfall from the developing tropical disturbance 91L in a week or more. 

This links shows you the possible progression of the system and the movement of rainfall. 

https://blog.weather.us/tropical-disturbance-91l-to-bring-another-round-of-rain-to-the-southern-plains-this-week/

 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

10 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Didn't models show a cooler than normal summer last year? I'm not putting much stock into the three month climate models as that's an obvious no-brainer for me.

I’m still waiting for those EPIC -NAO/-AO panels that showed up on every seasonal/monthly/weekly/yearly/daily/semi-monthly/shitty model last winter.  I don’t put stock in any kind of monthly seasonal forecasting now.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I’m still waiting for those EPIC -NAO/-AO panels that showed up on every seasonal/monthly/weekly/yearly/daily/semi-monthly/shitty model last winter.  I don’t put stock in any kind of monthly seasonal forecasting now.

Me neither...In times where ya think monthly or at least weekly seasonal forecasting should be getting better...why does it feel like it got worse last winter? I mean I don't believe anything those models spit out now--they proved themselves absolutely clueless, lol

[frd]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I’m still waiting for those EPIC -NAO/-AO panels that showed up on every seasonal/monthly/weekly/yearly/daily/semi-monthly/shitty model last winter.  I don’t put stock in any kind of monthly seasonal forecasting now.

In hindsight wasted so much time on Monday nights      ....... I have no expectations about this coming winter and feel great because of it.   After this winter's failure how do you even put faith back on the table?     

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-NAO probably not on the table for this Winter.

[pasnownut]

14 hours ago, frd said:

In hindsight wasted so much time on Monday nights      ....... I have no expectations about this coming winter and feel great because of it.   After this winter's failure how do you even put faith back on the table?     

Hate to agree, but find myself feeling that way as well.  Not sure if we overanalyzed/overhyped/oversold what we were seeing, but it was a humbling winter for sure. 

Need to go into winter in a toned down kinda way no matter what the long range progs show, as it will be easier if we go in with the underpromise-overdeliver mindset.

[frd]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Need to go into winter in a toned down kinda way no matter what the long range progs show, as it will be easier if we go in with the underpromise-overdeliver mindset.

That is an excellent mind set to have !!!!

Regardless of what the seasonal models show, either crap or Weenie-ish,  I will be thankful to watch another winter season unfold and the glories of mother nature and the fun of the December. the holidays and family.  

[Eskimo Joe]

23 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-NAO probably not on the table for this Winter.

Prince died, did you hear?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I was going to say, Big shift at 12z today to Greenland/Arctic ridging. 

[pasnownut]

20 hours ago, frd said:

That is an excellent mind set to have !!!!

Regardless of what the seasonal models show, either crap or Weenie-ish,  I will be thankful to watch another winter season unfold and the glories of mother nature and the fun of the December. the holidays and family.  

Absolutely.  Just turned 50 so my perspective adjusting is now in progress. 

 

Hope y'all are having a great summer.  Beauty out there today.

Nut

[frd]

@Eskimo Joe  related to the cool AM here .... went to Lowes and bought one single cucumber plant to spread out my harvest.

The plant looked good at the store but honestly I just grabbed it and placed it in the car. 

Got home and looked more closel, the plant was a rich green color and the pot moist,  but the leaves were limp, I guess from the cold morning is all I can think. 

Pretty crazy. I put iut in the sun and now it bounced back finally.  Hope your garden is Ok. I have not checked mine yet. 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 hours ago, frd said:

@Eskimo Joe  related to the cool AM here .... went to Lowes and bought one single cucumber plant to spread out my harvest.

The plant looked good at the store but honestly I just grabbed it and placed it in the car. 

Got home and looked more closel, the plant was a rich green color and the pot moist,  but the leaves were limp, I guess from the cold morning is all I can think. 

Pretty crazy. I put iut in the sun and now it bounced back finally.  Hope your garden is Ok. I have not checked mine yet. 

Cucumbers are cool to plant because when you take them at the seed cell the roots smells like a cucumber. You can insulate the plants with some straw around the base of the plant.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I agree with that.. could be a -AO Summer.

[frd]

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

and here you go........................

Looks like May to June blocking and less  - NAO during the winter .....  I brought up that a few days ago about AGW   

 

 

and this -

 

 

  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

[frd]

- SOI for weeks plus warm season blocking, etc  and you have this - 

@showmethesnow so far so good but a ways to go to see what August and September bring temp-wise.

I still feel we don't go extreme record breaking heat this summer. Very muggy, yes,  super hot for days on end, not buying that. 

Wonder if any correlation to the solar min and this blocking, or simply the role of warm seasonal forces acting on the polar regions producing this outcome as mentioned previously in this thread.  

By the way, I feel the EPS is impressive for this time of year. Whether this forecast is correct time will tell, however, the signals do support it though. 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

The cooler trends continue