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June Discobs 2019


George BM
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20 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

My thoughts as well . At least isolated chances especially between day 6 to day 10 . Some  Gefs members starting to show the potential for multiple slow moving waves of low pressure in the above time frame . 18z FV3 also was a pretty wet run for the east US thru day 10 . I bet models throw out some juiced  scenarios in the coming days with the pattern coming up . And a cutoff low is always a potential with this blocking . Beats tracking sunny and 85 

Big rain potential early next week, surprise , surprise

 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd


 

a lot of this is day 6 and 7 for us 

 

 p168i.gif?1559768418

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LWX afternoon AFD hitting on the heavy rain threat starting Sunday into next week:

Quote

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A upper level low will move to our south in the southeastern US. A
Frontal boundary will be situated over Georgia and South
Carolina on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
situated over the carolinas and Georgia. Temperatures will be
mild in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The upper level low will start to break down and merged with the
larger upper level flow Sunday through Tuesday. Shortwave energies
will eject from the upper low and move through our region.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
through Monday. A cold front is forecast to move through our
region late Monday into Tuesday and bring more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. As continued showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Tuesday, the
region could be in for a flood threat. At this time we will need
to continue the monitor the model trends to see if they start
to show agreement. Temperatures during this period will remain
mild in the mid 70s to low 80s.
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1 minute ago, yoda said:

LWX afternoon AFD hitting on the heavy rain threat starting Sunday into next week:

Quote



 

Meanwhile the rain that was moving our way today on the radar, has dissapated significantly. While Dewey Beach and Southern most locations are getting strong storms.  

Need to go water veggies now, boooo !  

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

Meanwhile the rain that was moving our way today on the radar, has dissapated significantly. While Dewey Beach and Southern most locations are getting strong storms.  

Need to go water veggies now, boooo !  

The storms did miss us to the south but the worst part was the 15,000 feet cloud top crapvection where I am.

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51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just one op run but Gfs 6z shows several inches of rain through day 7 esp in the southern reaches of the forum  . Most falls day 5-7 

 

Screenshot_20190606-063636_Chrome_crop_540x736.jpg

Push that north and west 50 miles and we would be golden. Seems like an oddly familiar map in winter lol

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Just one op run but Gfs 6z shows several inches of rain through day 7 esp in the southern reaches of the forum  . Most falls day 5-7 

 

Screenshot_20190606-063636_Chrome_crop_540x736.jpg

 

 

The Euro supports this, but focused more to our South. WPC seems to echo that idea. 

GA has been so dry with the extreme heat lately, and after this,  so much for a powerful inland heat ridge.

 

 

3CB6EBE0-75BF-43B6-BCE9-0DF8C29D8172.thumb.png.9f26aac4ee910107a79157cf5075366c.png

 

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@frd

Yea...Va on south look favored right now but I'm interested to see when we get in short range what the meso models spit out . If they show multiple waves kicked out our way from the ull...and more importantly do they make it this far north . There could be some training setups 

Wouldn’t take much to cause problems around here even if we have trended dryer recently. 

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@losetoa6  yep, certainly possible and also a deep feed of tropical moisture. Appears afterward we enter a period of nice weather with a general NW flow. 

Not as cool as the Midwest ( below normal there by 3 to 6 degrees maybe ),  but no extreme heat in sight in the East . 

Also, looks like West Coast high pressure builds later in the 6 to 10 day period, and a rise in the PNA.  Meanwhile the Newfoundland cold pool persists and the NAO remains negative. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@losetoa6  yep, certainly possible and also a deep feed of tropical moisture. Appears afterward we enter a period of nice weather with a general NW flow. 

Not as cool as the Midwest ( below normal there by 3 to 6 degrees maybe ),  but no extreme heat in site in the East . 

Also, looks like West Coast high pressure builds later in the 6 to 10 day period, and a rise in the PNA.  Meanwhile the Newfoundland cold pool persists and the NAO remains negative. 

Well, it is the third week since I planted grass. It looks pitiful. So, this expected monsoon is a little too late. The early heatwave with the multiple misses of soaking rain in my backyard has done its damage. I'll wait for the fall to plant again. 

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1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said:

Well, it is the third week since I planted grass. It looks pitiful. So, this expected monsoon is a little too late. The early heatwave with the multiple misses of soaking rain in my backyard has done its damage. I'll wait for the fall to plant again. 

That is a good idea. It is normally is recommended to over-seed,  and or plant new lawns in the fall when the nights are longer, the sun less strong, there is more frequent dew. The issue is even if your grass germinated there is no assurance it will survive July and August and even Septermber can be brutal too. 

I recommend you aerate any area you want to over seed in the Fall. If a new lawn follow typical instructions. Good luck !   

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14 minutes ago, frd said:

That is a good idea. It is normally is recommended to over-seed,  and or plant new lawns in the fall when the nights are longer, the sun less strong, there is more frequent dew. The issue is even if your grass germinated there is no assurance it will survive July and August and even Septermber can be brutal too. 

I recommend you aerate any area you want to over seed in the Fall. If a new lawn follow typical instructions. Good luck !   

You also get a lot of root growth throughout the winter which is probably the most important thing for new grass in our summers.

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3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Posting here because it's not tropical but tomorrow might be a little interesting for those along the coast. Guidance develops a weak surface low off the coast of NC/VA and pushes it into the coast this weekend. Nothing too exciting but this time of year breezy and wet excites me.

Hopefully we get a nice little swirl going on GOES-16. 

That's right in my backyard. We've had some pretty cool thunderstorms the past week or so down here on the shore.

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2 hours ago, Inthepines said:

Keep it away!! The Bay is just starting to recover from the insane amount of rain we had this past year. The rain has been terrible for the bay.

Amen!  It’s the summer...please give me sun and 80s.  Overcast/deluges/unsettled patterns SUCK this time of year.

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44 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

12z 3k brings your mini low lol ...right up the bay to Bob Chills yard . Looks like the broad ull in the south lassos it in and right up the bay

 

Screenshot_20190608-113410_Chrome_crop_498x670.jpg

Well is it a sub-tropical entity? Good candidate for post-season reanalysis. Regardless it's very interesting.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm old enough to remember when 1" - 2" of rain wasn't considered a big deal.  Really looking less impressive with each day .....

The NWS doesn’t seem to share your same thoughts 

Large area of isentropic lift and easterly low-level flow for a
prolonged period, coupled with PWATs of near 2 inches will
result in a heavy rain and flood threat Sunday and Monday,
especially for the central Virginia foothills and vicinity. At
7am, 1.70 inches in the past 24hrs was reported already by
MontebelloVA along the Blue Ridge in Nelson County. Anticipating
issuing a Flood or Flash Flood Watch on this shift after the
12z modeling rolls in and can be evaluated. Expecting Flood will
be the more widespread threat from inundation, with pockets of
Flash Flooding under heavier convective, possibly terrain
locked, elements. Finer scale details will continue to come
into better focus over the coming day or so.
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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm old enough to remember when 1" - 2" of rain wasn't considered a big deal.  Really looking less impressive with each day .....

Back in your day every square inch of the metro area wasn't paved over or built on. Much less open space to capture run off these days. No one cares when a field floods. 

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