mattie g Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 54 and drinking coffee on the deck with the little(r) one. Magnificent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 We didn’t get any Trick-or-Treaters last night. Sun angle seems higher in the sky than I remember too for October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: We didn’t get any Trick-or-Treaters last night. Sun angle seems higher in the sky than I remember too for October. At least the stores haven't put out Christmas decorations yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 49.8/48.9 here this am. Running a -3.1 so far for the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sad to see you go but congrats on what will be a wonderful change of pace and scenery. Thanks. The whole family, all for different reasons, needed a true change up in life. It stinks though that the western subforum has a shell of the activity of this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 3 hours ago, smokeybandit said: Thanks. The whole family, all for different reasons, needed a true change up in life. It stinks though that the western subforum has a shell of the activity of this one You'll be too busy enjoying the exciting, usually comfortable, weather colorado provides to care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just a 72 hour qpf timestamp of the Gefs ensemble but looks wet Tues - Thurs Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 This weather sucks. We need 95/73 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This weather sucks. We need 95/73 Things change at the end of the month. I can see warmer, but not extreme heat, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, frd said: Things change at the end of the month. I can see warmer, but not extreme heat, yet. Yeah well no sense wasting it all now. Save some of that action for winter. lol as if. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah well no sense wasting it all now. Save some of that action for winter. lol as if. lol...we'll probably have a +5 STDEV NAO all winter and a nice SE Riedge to boot. Mid 60s on Xmas day again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah well no sense wasting it all now. Save some of that action for winter. lol as if. May and June ......................................... the new Jan and Feb ................... LOL Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 18z new hotness GFS has 7”+ of rain IMBY through D16. I’ll take the under but damn. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 15 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 18z new hotness GFS has 7”+ of rain IMBY through D16. I’ll take the under but damn. 2019 trying to outdo 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 5 hours ago, nj2va said: 2019 trying to outdo 2018. If there is a bullseye of heavy rain over the area tomorrow evening, let it be know that the GFS called it 138hrs out and has been locked in about it since. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If there is a bullseye of heavy rain over the area tomorrow evening, let it be know that the GFS called it 138hrs out and has been locked in about it since. Mount Holly agrees, and highlights this time frame in the NWS discussion for tomorrow evening. The main threat tomorrow however, looks like it will be a heavy rain and flooding threat. Along and south of the front, there could be several risk factors, including very high precipitable water values (above 2 inches) and a very deep warm cloud layer. There is potential, especially Monday evening, for training storms, since the mid and upper level flow will be almost parallel to the front. Held off on issuing a flash flood watch at this time given the uncertainty with where the front will be, and thus where the threat area will be. If the front stalls near ILG, then the main threat area will be over northern Delmarva and far southern NJ (Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 I’ve been on the edge of like 4 developing showers today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 .HYDROLOGY... Concern is increasing about flood/flash flood potential; not so much today, but moreso Monday and Tuesday. Moisture is not as significant or deep as we might typically like, but having a stalled front in the area does mean there`s an increased likelihood of training thunderstorms and thus perhaps some flooding. For now, we are watching what`s happening upstream, and waiting to see where the surface front ends up tonight. Since the activity is convective in nature and these weak impulses don`t lend themselves to high confidence well in advance -- plus we currently have relatively high Flash Flood Guidance -- I have elected to wait and see how today plays out. From a flood perspective, Tuesday might actually have a higher potential than Monday (with Monday`s rains serving as the primer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Super muggy out and Flood Watches posted over a vast area. Check out this guideance on upcoming rainfall...... Seems our general forum is clearly targeted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Hrrr looks like a chance for a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. What happened to the organized complex? I hope this "wet period" doesn't end up a shower Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Hrrr looks like a chance for a scattered afternoon thunderstorm. What happened to the organized complex? I hope this "wet period" doesn't end up a shower Wednesday night. Looks like we are placed in slight risk for today. One thing is the PWATs are very high. Think flooding risks are elevated, versus the chances for severe. Mount Holly mentioned in the lastest update how busy they were in Southern NJ last evening with warnings. There were some quick moving West to East storms that missed me by a few miles but did get some rain. Little instense cells with damaging winds. " Previous discussion... This was not the night I was expecting. After the mesoscale convective system (MCS) moved through the region last evening (albeit relatively weak owing to poor midlevel lapse rates from antecedent clouds/precipitation), convection began to develop in northern Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Then it re-initiated again a couple hours later. The storms had fairly similar representation on radar: cores of 50+-dBZ echo to about 20 kft that were demonstrably capable of producing strong to severe surface gusts. This made for a busy night, with several warnings issued and quite a few reports of 50+ mph gusts, especially in the Atlantic City and Tuckerton areas. " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 And here we have the lastest 6:30 AM Update form Mount Holly. I bolded the interesting parts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 am update: Made some minor adjustments to PoPs this morning based on the latest radar trends with the decaying precipitation to our west. Looks like we will see a lull this morning before the next round of storms occurs this afternoon/evening. The 06z model suite is showing a fairly similar convective evolution to the 00z models, with the NAM Nest and HRRR indicating about the southern two-thirds of the area will see numerous strong to severe storms this afternoon. There are mixed signals regarding convective mode now, with some potential for quasi-discrete storms mixed with more organized line segments/clusters. This morning`s soundings may shed some light on this potential (via analysis of shear and midlevel lapse rates), but suspect that hail potential is relatively modest given antecedent convection modifying the midlevel thermodynamic characteristics (i.e., warming and moistening). Notably, the 00z WRF simulations are much farther north with the convection this afternoon/tonight, and this is plausible since the models were generally too far south with the precipitation/frontal placement on Sunday. Should this trend continue, may need to expand the flash flood watch northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Had some surprise thunderstorm activity overnight between 2 and 4am. A good bit of lightning at times but rain wasn't particularly heavy got .30". Just fun to lie in bed listening to the rumbling thunder and watching the glow of lightning filtering in between the shades and curtains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 This is really a remarkable record and a very interesting post by @bluewave <<<< From bluewave: No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 18 hours ago, WxUSAF said: If there is a bullseye of heavy rain over the area tomorrow evening, let it be know that the GFS called it 138hrs out and has been locked in about it since. And it’s gone. Last 3 runs dropped it south and dramatically weakened the rain bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Sparky said: Had some surprise thunderstorm activity overnight between 2 and 4am. A good bit of lightning at times but rain wasn't particularly heavy got .30". Just fun to lie in bed listening to the rumbling thunder and watching the glow of lightning filtering in between the shades and curtains. Yes it was a nice surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 90/69 currently and a Bermuda blue sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Pouring rain and bright sunshine on the Hill right now. Reminds me of summer sessions in college in north central Florida, where it rained every day at 4 pm and often with the sun out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 I can guarantee that there will be storms in the forecast for nearly every day when I go down to west virginia in early july (southwestern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 17, 2019 Share Posted June 17, 2019 Did someone say thunderstorms? Bwahahahahaha! I was confident in no rain so I watered everything heavily this morning. All this talk of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms this week. Psssshhh. I am calling it now -- shutout. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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