CAPE Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 6z 3k brings a nice slug of rain north Wed night into Thursday but it seems to be on it's own. Most guidance seems to have the majority of the area in the subsidence zone with energy splitting ......some going up through the eastern shore and beaches and energy driving through Ohio-W. Pennsylvania . Yeah need to watch the trends for Wed night through Thursday. Some areas may end up betwixt and between. Looks like some possible convection late on Thursday too with the trailing front from the low tracking into the GLs. Further down the road, early next week has the look of a potentially wet period with a stalled front and pieces of energy moving along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Beautiful morning - never expected my son and I to be wearing coats to the bus stop on the last day of school. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 I'll be in Maine from the 20th - 27th so you can all guarantee something big happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 I got .60 inches from the event. Way under the inch and a half I was hoping for. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hopefully they don't call it the Euro FV3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 76/53 Sunny and breezy. Can it get any better approaching mid June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It was a really interesting press release. I’m impressed by how often they’re making these important updates. I read the link and it is indeed pretty cool the key areas they talk about further. So many varied improvements. The part about improving the forecasting of waves is pretty neat and I imagine very high on the list for ocean commerce vessels, cruise ships, etc. and for you @WxWatcher007 a mention about the tropics too <<< Results in the tropics are more mixed, but there are strong improvements for 2-metre temperature. Tropical cyclone forecast skill is neutral overall, with a slight reduction in track error, consistent with improved winds in the tropics. >> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Severe clear today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Simply wow !! Really amazing the turn of the NAO. Just when you thought it was a fairy tale the past 6 weeks show up including the record May and now this incredible ridge. If deep winter wonder the changes in the NAO and the forecasted rise coming up off the deep negative would have provided a HA event and a equally impressive MECS or even greater. Actually I think ity would have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Might be kinda cool to see an h5 pattern like this in Jan or Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 100/10 on the weather scale today. Tomorrow is more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 NAM nest at 850 mb for Friday morning. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed PBL, so we're going to need a high wind warning in the higher terrain to the west and a wind advisory in the metros if this is correct. That's super rare for mid-June! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 00z NAM bullseye the i95 corridor tomorrow night into Thursday morning with heavy rain... 2 to 3 inches Everyone gets 1"+ pretty much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z NAM bullseye the i95 corridor tomorrow night into Thursday morning with heavy rain... 2 to 3 inches Everyone gets 1"+ pretty much from what I've seen in the 00z suite from the CAMs and lower-res models, while the NAMs are some of the wettest solutions, there is pretty good agreement for a good soaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 7 hours ago, yoda said: 00z NAM bullseye the i95 corridor tomorrow night into Thursday morning with heavy rain... 2 to 3 inches Everyone gets 1"+ pretty much That shifted west a good bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 9 hours ago, high risk said: NAM nest at 850 mb for Friday morning. Forecast soundings show a well-mixed PBL, so we're going to need a high wind warning in the higher terrain to the west and a wind advisory in the metros if this is correct. That's super rare for mid-June! Still looking breezy for late morning Friday. 45kts at ~3k ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 precip aside, the forecasting of clouds vs sun is still pretty inconsistent around here. forecast was for sunny, but i guess there's a little impulse moving through bringing overcast. however, it does look like it will clear out by the afternoon. i'm hoping that's the case because i have the day off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just got this message at work, Quote Dear NWS Partners, Effective today, the National Weather Service (NWS) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) includes a new-and-improved FV3 dynamical core. Congratulations to our NWS Environment Modeling Center scientists and everyone else who worked diligently to make today’s implementation possible. This is the first major upgrade in almost 40 years to the dynamical core, a key model component that computes wind and air pressure. We should all be proud of this major accomplishment. This significant milestone will shape the future of the weather, water and climate enterprise in a number of important ways. In the short-term, we will see improved guidance for the jet stream and associated weather, precipitation, and tropical cyclone intensity and 5-day tracks. In the longer-term, this upgrade will enable even more significant improvements as we look to advance the physics in the model and the data assimilation system used to ingest data and initialize the model. Along with our new partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to build a common modeling infrastructure between the operational and research communities, we have a lot to celebrate today and look forward to in the future. After rigorous testing that was deliberative and transparent with the weather enterprise, and recent adjustments made to address concerns about cold and snow biases, I have complete confidence in today’s implementation and the improved model output we will get from the GFS. The retiring version of the model will no longer be used in operations, but will continue to run in parallel through September 2019 for data comparison. --Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just got this message at work, Additional sauce: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Just got this message at work, DuPage has already switched their source and eliminated the old FV3 tab. I'm guessing other places have to. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: DuPage has already switched their source and eliminated the old FV3 tab. I'm guessing other places have to. Here we go. it's not really a choice, as the FV3GFS is now being distributed in the GFS data streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ater rigorous testing that was deliberative and transparent with the weather enterprise, and recent adjustments made to address concerns about cold and snow biases, I have complete confidence in today’s implementation and the improved model output we will get from the GFS. This really caught my eye, if true, kudos and congrats to the team responsible for this undertaking. I really like us to be able to compete with the guys across the pond. We have many bright minds here in the states, both young and old. Onwards and upwards ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Just now, frd said: This really caught my eye, if true, kudos and congrats to the team responsible for this undertaking. I really like us to be able to compete with the guys across the pond. We have many bright minds here in the states, both young and old. Onwards and upwards ! I'm part of a NOAA/NWS partners committee and it was a point of frequent, spirited discussion but the folks on the NWS side realized this was a priority and it's clear they've been working hard on it. I look forward to seeing it take the Euro out behind the woodshed this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 51 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm part of a NOAA/NWS partners committee and it was a point of frequent, spirited discussion but the folks on the NWS side realized this was a priority and it's clear they've been working hard on it. I look forward to seeing it take the Euro out behind the woodshed this winter. @Eskimo Joe is this statement by Maue really true ? A decade behind ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 Has been that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, frd said: @Eskimo Joe is this statement by Maue really true ? A decade behind ? That seems a bit of an overreach. On paper the GFS is not a terrible model, but operationally it's not something I rely on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That seems a bit of an overreach. On paper the GFS is not a terrible model, but operationally it's not something I rely on. Can't help but think each model has its own obvious strengths and weaknesses, or as some will say reoccurring forecast errors or biases. Over time these biases may be modeled out as the forecast system is upgraded or tweaked. I would think the best course of action is what you see everyday in various NWS forecast discussions, a blend of various models, trends, etc. to get to a forecast. Similiar to as to what the WPC does. We know the rankings of the Euro is pretty high, in terms of verification. I believe the best forecasters understand the various weather models ability to handle different forecast challenges and in tandem creates a forecast that delivers the highest potential of verification by taking everything I mentioned into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 2 hours ago, high risk said: it's not really a choice, as the FV3GFS is now being distributed in the GFS data streams. Instantweathermaps is stuck on the 6z suite, so they aren't on the ball. TropicalTidbits is working fine. I assume the pay vendors are also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 turned out to be a phenomenal day. this is becoming one of the better stretches of weather to start spring/summer that i can recall, with sprinkles of storms mixed in to keep things interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Sterling's thoughts are leaning somewhat bullish imo with 1-3" possible for the event tonight/ tomorrow. Imby I'm thinking low end . This type of setup always comes in faster and is out quicker then modeled and last minute trends always bump east with heaviest bands and any convective showers. I95 on east has to be favored. The surface temps and dews in the 50s don't add confidence either for north + west areas . But ...something to track and maybe a thunderstorm late Thursday Yeah here too. My bar is 0.5 which would be more than the last few weeks combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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