NegativeEPO Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 Been hearing some talk about a major pattern change to a much warmer pattern coming up soon. Is there much truth to that? The GFS is showing a lot of warmth in the long range, but I’m skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 10 hours ago, beavis1729 said: The 2019 high temp at ORD so far is only 83, on June 5th. And, it should hold for at least a few more days. That's nuckin futs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 15 hours ago, Hoosier said: Getting to be late for Chicago to not have recorded a high of 85+ yet. The record latest is July 3 back in 1935. I don't think that record will be broken but let's see how many more days it will take. First 85+ high: June 19: 1893, 1924, 1997, 2009 June 22: 1882 June 23: 1884 June 30: 1878 July 2: 1883 July 3: 1935 Interesting...I'm honestly surprised that there are so many instances where it has taken so long for the first 85+ temp. With that said, I don't really put too much stock in the 1800s records, since the ob site was so close to Lake Michigan and it was a different climate regime (not to digress too much...but if you look at Chicago's daily record low max temps from mid-May through June, almost all of them are from the 1800s). Anyway, I think there's a good chance that ORD makes it past June 23...in which case 2019 would have the 4th latest first 85+ temp on record...and the latest since 1935. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Interesting...I'm honestly surprised that there are so many instances where it has taken so long for the first 85+ temp. With that said, I don't really put too much stock in the 1800s records, since the ob site was so close to Lake Michigan and it was a different climate regime (not to digress too much...but if you look at Chicago's daily record low max temps from mid-May through June, almost all of them are from the 1800s). Anyway, I think there's a good chance that ORD makes it past June 23...in which case 2019 would have the 4th latest first 85+ temp on record...and the latest since 1935. Agree... it is more impressive to go this long nowadays. ORD is about as far inland as you can go and still be a "Chicago" observation site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 NAM and GFS have near 80 degree dews in part of the sub on Saturday. This is about the time of year when you'd start expecting the possibility but will the corn lagging behind play a role? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 NAM and GFS have near 80 degree dews in part of the sub on Saturday. This is about the time of year when you'd start expecting the possibility but will the corn lagging behind play a role? Corn is growing fast. Maybe other members will chime in but there are a few fields that look like they might make it knee high by the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 The euro also has mid to upper 70s dews on Saturday. It has been so pleasant for much of this month, that will be quite a slap in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 On 6/15/2019 at 5:11 PM, Torchageddon said: It is ball-sucking cold, and I'm growing further weary of this Hudson gyre nonsense. Every Spring has been the same; no Spring. I'd be torrid if it weren't for my trip to the central Plains in May where I escaped this bowel squirting action. It reminds me too much of the worst June (2015) and some of the awfulness of the year prior. If its sunny and low 70s then whatever but once that cloud cover hangs and you get stiff breezes its a wrap. I've also noticed that every time the forecast on a misting/light rain day shows upper 60s it ends up being 10 below that. I had to wear a jacket again today and its the middle of June... Yeah, my NWS office does that, ticks me off a bit that they steer too much toward climo then end up getting temps wrong by 10F or so on the regular. They should know as much as anyone that temps do not tend to be very consistent so trending toward climo is not the smart choice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: NAM and GFS have near 80 degree dews in part of the sub on Saturday. This is about the time of year when you'd start expecting the possibility but will the corn lagging behind play a role? Knew it was only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Knew it was only a matter of time. Good news is they don't look like they're going to settle in for any extended time over the next couple weeks. May have some decent breaks. But that also probably means more of this wet pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: NAM and GFS have near 80 degree dews in part of the sub on Saturday. This is about the time of year when you'd start expecting the possibility but will the corn lagging behind play a role? I can only attempt to talk about Indiana, but with the amount of moisture sitting on the surface and close to the surface in southern Indiana I would guess the little corn is not going to make much of a difference. Now watch me be 100% wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 0.83" so far this evening. EDIT: 0.96" as of midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 0.53" of rain today as we, once again, got stuck under the general rain shield on the north side of the MCS. This has been the theme this spring/summer. The slow-moving disturbance today has kept this area in the mid 60s, so it has been pretty cool. Models had been showing the dewpoint rising into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday, but that now looks unlikely. The euro is now showing mid to upper 60s, with temps only in the 70s. For the most part, if we want summer heat and storms this year, we have to go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 On 6/19/2019 at 10:59 PM, bowtie` said: I can only attempt to talk about Indiana, but with the amount of moisture sitting on the surface and close to the surface in southern Indiana I would guess the little corn is not going to make much of a difference. Now watch me be 100% wrong. Indy still has a shot at a record June rain fall total, but yeah southern IN. can't handle much if any, more rain. I think they could plant this Frankencorn they have now days on the 4th and still harvest it by the end of October. That little 3 or 4 day window prior to the 10th allowed a lot of farmers around here to get a crop in and those fields are already 6-8 inches tall with some damn near a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 classic MO/IA border MCS diving ESE just south of me last night long range is very warm and muggy ..but not "hot" ..although it will be "drier" there is no huge sinking air high pressure and high PW values staying around afternoon 30% coverage with heavy downpours....with the wet ground isolated flooding still possible some days will be higher as poorly modeled systems round the ridge enhancing the coverage also GFS has been hinting at some kind of weak low getting stuck over the western KY area later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 39 on the therm this morning down in the front yard. Dry northerly flow has persisted all month long pretty much, allowing for cool nights and nice days. My average low temp month-to-date is 44 and despite all the rain south, only .58" all month here. Unsettled weather returns tomorrow and I'm very pleased by that. Also, I do not mind the late sunsets in summer. Actual dark only lasts here from 12:36 am - 3:07 am, before astronomical twilight begins. I wouldn't want to be in the central zone, which is just the county south of here, actually. Leaves usually are near peak the last week of Sept here, just 12 weeks away. Crazy to think about, but like I've said before... In the UP, winter is always coming. Enjoy the weekend everyone! With all the nice weather, already have about 70% of winter's firewood cut, split, and stacked! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 It's 10-15 degrees cooler (both temp and dew) than models predicted a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Some heavy thunderstorms about to move into this area. Nice light snow to the south the last 15 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Some heavy thunderstorms about to move into this area. Nice light snow to the south the last 15 mins. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 7 hours ago, Stebo said: Haha! Woops. Well, the weather has been pretty chilly at times lately lol. Ended up with 0.60" from the early morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 0.30" overnight. MO/KS and points south are gobbling up much of the good MCS action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Speaking of snow, it's freakin' snowing on I-80 in Laramie WY right now lol. It's June 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: 0.30" overnight. MO/KS and points south are gobbling up much of the good MCS action. yep..5 days ago it was heat and humidity, and heavy rain for us for this period....everything way south I think next week is our turn...maybe smaller sized MCS's 12z GFS more active then before basically has pockets of high PW values (>1.5) and small complexes every day in IL/IA this week many moving SE or even SSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2019 Author Share Posted June 23, 2019 32 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Speaking of snow, it's freakin' snowing on I-80 in Laramie WY right now lol. It's June 23rd. Awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Heavy heavy downpour and wind here in Momence IL. Nothing on radar Wild weather -edit; small blip showing on radar now. Much much more impressive than what radar shows If that small blip is any indication, it’s going to rain HARD when it does rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2019 Author Share Posted June 23, 2019 These drops are huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2019 Author Share Posted June 23, 2019 Actually feels fairly uncomfortable outside even though it's only around 80. I think it's the dews. I think the cool weather has affected my tolerance build up to the sticky stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 23, 2019 Share Posted June 23, 2019 Yeah same here. It’s definitely the dews. Weather app has it at 69. Some rain just came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Yep 73 here w/70 dews at 10pm. Feels warmer than it did at 1pm when it was 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Really liking the forecast this next week. Full weekend of sunshine here in Central Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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