Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 No more enhanced for NYC or NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The flood threat may be the bigger issue for the NYC metro and not the severe. Strong gradient over NJ & frontal boundary has elevated storms in the past. Models still hit us pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 hanging on to every hrrr run is a good way to drive yourself crazy 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It doesn’t seem to be verifying too well in NW PA. The NAM is clearly too slow in NW PA. The RGEM may be as well. I think the HRDPS might be closest as of 17Z this is pretty bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Tight gradient right over the 287 corridor, a bit further East than yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Tornado Watch 292 SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Wed May 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northern Delaware Extreme northeastern Maryland Western and southern New Jersey Much of central and eastern Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected this afternoon across central/eastern Pennsylvania and the storms will move east-southeastward into New Jersey this afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging winds are likely with these storms, and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible with storm and boundary interactions. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Altoona PA to 10 miles east northeast of Trenton NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 288...WW 289...WW 290...WW 291... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Boundary looks like it’s trying to move back NE in the last half hour. I don’t think it really gets far though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Boundary looks like it’s trying to move back NE in the last half hour. I don’t think it really gets far though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Upper 80s in south Jersey. They're probably gonna get rocked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Upper 80s in south Jersey. They're probably gonna get rocked again we all are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Parameters are creeping East. The shear profiles are actually stronger overhead than they were yesterday and we have a decent amount of elevated instability along with decent lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Does NYC stand a chance of >1 inch qpf ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, sferic said: Does NYC stand a chance of >1 inch qpf ? Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 The storm closest to Williamsport is rotating and it's not even severe warned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Parameters are creeping East. The shear profiles are actually stronger overhead than they were yesterday and we have a decent amount of elevated instability along with decent lapse rates. Wonder if outflow from the linear storms out in central Pa could nudge the boundary any further back east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, sferic said: Does NYC stand a chance of >1 inch qpf ? absolutely, 1-1.5" should be common. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Pretty right couplet with this tornado warned cell. Looks even stronger with the next scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Latest HRRR brings the precipitation north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Pretty nice super cell structure on the lock haven storm. Some 70dbz echos showing up. Probably putting down some big hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Storms are firing over Sussex County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 The overcast deck is really thin right now across ENJ into WRN LI. I wouldn’t be surprised if it totally broke in the next 1-2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 That marine layer is really making an impact on the advancing clouds from Pa into central NJ http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/PSUGOES_PA2/loop30v.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: That marine layer is really making an impact on the advancing clouds from Pa into central NJ http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/PSUGOES_PA2/loop30v.html You're misjudging this image. The cloud deck over NW NJ is associated with newly forming convection. That should hopefully help to erode the rest of the marine layer over NE NJ and pave the way for some clearing ahead of the main lines out in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Couplet on the tornado warned cell over Northern PA is tightening. Wouldn't be shocked to see a confirmed tornado on the ground in the next hour with that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 So far the HRRR has been spot on by showing those storms over Sussex popping up and then dissipating quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're misjudging this image. The cloud deck over NW NJ is associated with newly forming convection. That should hopefully help to erode the rest of the marine layer over NE NJ and pave the way for some clearing ahead of the main lines out in PA. Ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Just now, hudsonvalley21 said: Ok thanks The main takeaway is that nothing currently suggests that these storms are going to hit a brick wall and just completely dissipate until they are at the immediate shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Currently six or seven different supercells ongoing in NE PA moving East. Most of them warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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