Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Maybe it'll actually rain in Middlesex County today. I drove into that cell last night, in Watchung. Holy cow what punishing rain that was. Yeah Westfield and scotch plains had quite a lot of flooding. Got home to Plainfield and not a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Today's probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 The sun tried to poke through earlier but has since disappeared again. Back to cloudy and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Severe threat will be mitigated for the NYC metro IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 12z NAM 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Severe threat will be mitigated for the NYC metro IMO. we can still get hail from elevated storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 The elevated convection out on Eastern Long Island last night was also impressive with 1.00 diameter hail. We saw this a few weeks ago in New England with the golf ball sized hail north of the warm front. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1113 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1000 PM HAIL STATEN ISLAND 40.58N 74.15W 05/28/2019 M0.88 INCH RICHMOND NY AMATEUR RADIO WILLARD AVE. 1002 PM HAIL WESTHAMPTON BEACH 40.80N 72.61W 05/28/2019 E1.00 INCH SUFFOLK NY PUBLIC 1002 PM HAIL BULLS HEAD 40.61N 74.16W 05/28/2019 E1.75 INCH RICHMOND NY SOCIAL MEDIA TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR 1004 PM HAIL STATEN ISLAND 40.58N 74.15W 05/28/2019 M1.25 INCH RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER GRANITEVILLE SECTION. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 It feels like the SPC D1 outlook has been the same for three weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Temp down to 64 here. DP 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we can still get hail from elevated storms This ruins my chances of getting a tornado warning twice in one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Why are you guys treating the HRRR as if it's gospel? I know that it's usually the model of choice when it comes to convection but it's not always correct and it often changes dramatically over the course of 2-3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: The elevated convection out on Eastern Long Island last night was also impressive with 1.00 diameter hail. We saw this a few weeks ago in New England with the golf ball sized hail north of the warm front. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1113 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1000 PM HAIL STATEN ISLAND 40.58N 74.15W 05/28/2019 M0.88 INCH RICHMOND NY AMATEUR RADIO WILLARD AVE. 1002 PM HAIL WESTHAMPTON BEACH 40.80N 72.61W 05/28/2019 E1.00 INCH SUFFOLK NY PUBLIC 1002 PM HAIL BULLS HEAD 40.61N 74.16W 05/28/2019 E1.75 INCH RICHMOND NY SOCIAL MEDIA TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR 1004 PM HAIL STATEN ISLAND 40.58N 74.15W 05/28/2019 M1.25 INCH RICHMOND NY TRAINED SPOTTER GRANITEVILLE SECTION. Impressive storms out east last night. There was a lot of elevated instability the further east one went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 every meso model gives us widespread activity later. impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 NJ counties adjacent to the Delaware River should have the highest severe wx threat today, including tornadoes/hail. HRRR boundary location looks pretty good later, continued heating under partial sun will help slow the backdoor's progression this afternoon. Winds on the cool side of it will trend to the SE, helping enhance low-level helicity given strong and deep westerly flow aloft. Curious to see how SPC/OKX handle watches later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 27 minutes ago, psv88 said: Impressive storms out east last night. There was a lot of elevated instability the further east one went. 1.00 inch diameter hail may be the record for elevated convection on Long Island. The hail near 3.00 inches diameter back in August 2011 over Western Nassau was the overall record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 not sure why okx didn't issue a flash flood watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 000 NOUS41 KPHI 291539 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-300345- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1139 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2019 ...SUSSEX COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY STORM SURVEY UPDATE... SURVEY TEAMS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAVE ARRIVED ON SCENE IN BERKS COUNTY AS WELL AS SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. THE TEAM IN SUSSEX COUNTY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE STORM DAMAGE IN STANHOPE WAS CAUSED BY A TORNADO. THE TEAM STILL HAS YET TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS SUCH AS PATH LENGTH, WIDTH, AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE DETAILS ARE RELAYED BACK TO THE OFFICE. THE TEAM IN BERKS COUNTY IS CURRENTLY WORKING WITH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DAMAGE HAS NOT BEEN RELAYED BACK TO THE OFFICE AT THIS TIME. AS SOON AS AN ASSESSMENT IS MADE AVAILABLE, WE WILL RELAY PROVIDED DETAILS IN ADDITIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST REGARDING TODAY'S STORM SURVEYS. $$ KRUZDLO/MIKETTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...the northern WV Panhandle...much of PA...and NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291606Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Watch issuance is likely by 17Z (1 PM EDT). DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over central OH and Lake Erie at 16Z will move eastward today across PA and vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms have recently initiated across central OH and northwestern PA in association with this feature. A belt of strong 50-65 kt mid-level westerly winds will be present across eastern OH, much of PA, and NJ today. Long, nearly straight hodographs through mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move east-southeastward across PA into NJ. A marine front located over the NYC metro area and adjacent northern NJ will likely limit the northeastern extent of the substantial severe threat this afternoon. In addition to the large hail and damaging wind risk, isolated tornadoes could also occur over mainly parts of central/eastern PA into portions of NJ to the east of a weak surface low where low-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be somewhat stronger. Watch issuance will likely be needed across this region by 17Z (1 PM EDT). ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/29/2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Why are you guys treating the HRRR as if it's gospel? I know that it's usually the model of choice when it comes to convection but it's not always correct and it often changes dramatically over the course of 2-3 runs. It tends to be good with timing but otherwise beyond hour 6-8 it’s hard to trust. Yesterday morning it was gung ho on the 22-00Z period til it began catching on around 16-17Z that 00-03 would likely be the main time. I’m not too enthralled today north of TTN. Despite those reflectivities looking good on the HRRR/NAM/RGEM I think this may end up being very MCS like. Entirely elevated with maybe a SVR TSTM warning or two occasionally. It may also end up being much slower moving and progressing, maybe not arriving til 23-00 and lasting til 03-04. The 3KM NAM seed yo try and hint at that that though it didn’t really take the idea and run with it totally. Normally storms that approach from more of NW or N direction here hold together better because the sea breeze impacts them later vs when they have to cross the entire length of NJ but today the air will be stable even in N NJ and SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Seems like the watch will be in roughly the same place as yesterday's tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It tends to be good with timing but otherwise beyond hour 6-8 it’s hard to trust. Yesterday morning it was gung ho on the 22-00Z period til it began catching on around 16-17Z that 00-03 would likely be the main time. I’m not too enthralled today north of TTN. Despite those reflectivities looking good on the HRRR/NAM/RGEM I think this may end up being very MCS like. Entirely elevated with maybe a SVR TSTM warning or two occasionally. It may also end up being much slower moving and progressing, maybe not arriving til 23-00 and lasting til 03-04. The 3KM NAM seed yo try and hint at that that though it didn’t really take the idea and run with it totally. Normally storms that approach from more of NW or N direction here hold together better because the sea breeze impacts them later vs when they have to cross the entire length of NJ but today the air will be stable even in N NJ and SE NY Biggest burn by the HRRR (And all models really) was last monday the 20th. We were chasing in the plains and SPC issued a high risk. Every single piece of data and all the models pointed to a large tornado outbreak right up until 12 or 1 pm. The cloud cover never really cleared out and the models underestimated the lapse rates. We got a tornado that day but it was far from an outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 New HRRR is further South and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: New HRRR is further South and West. It doesn’t seem to be verifying too well in NW PA. The NAM is clearly too slow in NW PA. The RGEM may be as well. I think the HRDPS might be closest as of 17Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Flash Flooding possible today. https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0334&yr=2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Drought conditions afoot around here...missed all the rains lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Flash Flooding possible today. https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0334&yr=2019 The flood threat may be the bigger issue for the NYC metro and not the severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 29, 2019 Author Share Posted May 29, 2019 Enhanced risk ticked South on new update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 29, 2019 Share Posted May 29, 2019 Current temp 67/DP 60/RH 77% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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