NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 I expect the cells to the NW of Scranton to ride the boundary Southeast. SPC has extended the tornado watch over much of Southern NJ and into the Delmarva but Northeastern sections of NJ remain out of the latest watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Expanded tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 It begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ace said: It begins... How do they know the tornadoes will be brief? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: How do they know the tornadoes will be brief? lack of sfc-based instability means the mesocyclones w/ the supercells may spin up tornadoes where there are pockets of higher instability. that's a nasty hail core w/ the primary cell N of AVP. warned for 2" hail now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Watching the storms in Scranton from my home in Sullivan. They're moving along and won't hit me (I think) but the WF is gonna lead the storms right to the metros. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Live stream https://www.pahomepage.com/live-stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 large tornado on the ground near scranton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, Snowlover11 said: large tornado on the ground near scranton I've gone there quite a few times. Hoping they get through okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 At 5:43 PM EDT, Laceyville [Wyoming Co, PA] 911 CALL CENTER reports TSTM WND DMG. REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD, FLYING DEBRIS, AND A DEBRIS FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF LACEYVILLE MOVING EAST ALONG THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER. At 6:03 PM EDT, Tunkhannock [Wyoming Co, PA] EMERGENCY MNGR reports HAIL of golf ball size (M1.75 INCH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Getting a little nervous here. The shear on radar indicates that the core is going to move right over NE NJ, extreme Southern NY. Not worried about tornados but I am worried about 2” hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Wow @ that supercell in northeast PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Definitely a large circulation there E/SE of Scranton: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 the NJ side of the metro should be under a watch imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 If anything the warm front overhead could enhance low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the NJ side of the metro should be under a watch imo The storms affixed themselves to the WF. Really nervous about metro areas now more than my own home in Sullivan, we are on the cooler side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Of course I went to hunterdon and Warren county and now I'm too far south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, forkyfork said: the NJ side of the metro should be under a watch imo agreed. boundary from LI Sound is settling just S/W of Newark now. Severe cells fairly likely even on the cool side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: agreed. boundary from LI Sound is settling just S/W of Newark now. Severe cells fairly likely even on the cool side of it. the cool air is so shallow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Of course I went to hunterdon and Warren county and now I'm too far south lol Yep. We were heading south. Turning back north now though. The southern storms look to turn into a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 If the Scranton storm turns right I’ll probably just miss it here, but as it stands now I’m directly in the path of the hail core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Getting some strong onshore flow here on the south shore. Not sure much survives out here but we could see some elevated convection make it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Looks like overall the Scranton supercell has weakened some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Looks like weak rotation in the cell near Poughkeepsie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Seems like everything is weakening below severe Might just be cycling, the lead cell looks improved on the latest scan and turning right some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 As it turns out my Sister in law ended up in the emergencey room so I’m headed down 287 towards Morris County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Might just be cycling, the lead cell looks improved on the latest scan and turning right some. Yep went TOR warned again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Might just be cycling, the lead cell looks improved on the latest scan and turning right some. Yeah I noticed that right after I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Upton 613 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will send a warm front across portions of the area this evening, then passes to the east late tonight followed by a cold frontal passage. Another wave of low pressure will track along the front on Wednesday, passing near or just south of the area Wednesday night. The boundary lingers south of the area into Thursday. A cold front then moves through the region Thursday night, with brief high pressure returning for Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will move through on Sunday, followed by building high pressure into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Based on radar and stlt, the tstm risk has been slightly slowed. Otherwise, the fcst is on track. Warm front approaching from the southwest separates a moderately to highly unstable airmass to the west and a stable marine layer to the east. As low-level winds continue to veer to the south this evening and the warm front works into portions of the area, ingredients will be in place for the development of scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms. Latest HiRes guidance shows boundary setting up across NYC metro, Long Island, and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley. This combined with 0-6 km deep-layered shear of 40-50kt and 0-3 SRH value around 400, supports rotating updrafts and strong mid-level mesos should convection be realized. The main threat will be damaging winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes are a possibility, especially just west of the NYC metro where surface based instability will be highest. Of course, where the boundary resides this evening will be key player to where the damaging winds and tornados can be realized. As the cells propagate east, they will become elevated due to the marine layer. Large CAPES values out east and the maintenance of the low-level cold pool though could briefly scour out the marine layer even for areas just east of the NYC metro. Most likely timeframe for the convection is between 6-10 pm, with the Lower Hudson Valley and interior northern NJ on the earlier side of that range. Convection looks to initiate north and west of the area in association with the boundary across the NY/PA border, then drops south and east of Long Island toward midnight. Localized heavy rainfall is likely with the strongest activity, but a WNW storm motion in excess of 30 kt should limit the flash flood threat. Cold front passes through by daybreak with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s, slightly above normal. There is moderate risk for rip currents at the Atlantic beaches this evening, except for high across the beaches from Nassau west due to moderate S/SE winds and building waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As it turns out my Sister in law ended up in the emergencey room so I’m headed down 287 towards Morris County. Hope all is ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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