NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 HREF (SPC hi-res ensemble) has a substantial signal for rotating supercells grazing the city late afternoon/early evening. Junky warm advection precip may continue over the city too long into the afternoon to get much sfc-based instability, but most of NJ/PA remains in line to see a severe thunderstorm outbreak later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Via SPC: Quote ...Mid-Atlantic to the OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A weak surface cyclone in extreme southeast Lower MI will translate eastward near the NY/PA border this afternoon in association with subtle speed maxima in the westerlies aloft, as a surface warm front moves east-northeastward into eastern PA/NJ. The warm sector will become moderately unstable by early afternoon (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) with minimal convective inhibition, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the path of the surface low and along the trailing east-west oriented front near 18z. Moderate buoyancy and effective bulk shear of 50 kt or greater with long, relatively straight hodographs will support splitting supercells in the warm sector. These storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds into this evening. Additionally, a few tornadoes will be possible, given sufficient low-level shear/hodograph curvature (0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2) from PA into NJ, especially near the surface warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 latest RAP sounding for EWR valid at 22Z: it suggests the warm front mixes northwards quickly behind these last few showers/iso storms, which is certainly possible given 925mb flow turning SW'rly momentarily. you can see the warm front mixing northwards quickly on the latest visible loops, but its continued progression will depend on how quickly those cells out in central PA develop the next few hours. any large increase in those may slow the warm front down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 We rarely get more than dime or golfball sized hail here. A funnel cloud or waterspout would be interesting to see, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 This is an experimental model but figured i'd throw it out there anyway. And here is the HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Lots of clearing now on visible satellite imagery over Central and Eastern PA moving East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Lots of clearing now on visible satellite imagery over Central and Eastern PA moving East. Was just about to post that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said: Was just about to post that. That warm front is racing it seems like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Word on the tornado watch is that it might be extended further East later but that SPC felt that confidence was currently lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Word on the tornado watch is that it might be extended further East later but that SPC felt that confidence was currently lower. it's smart placement for the time being. plenty of time to expand it should instability build farther N/E during the late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, purduewx80 said: it's smart placement for the time being. plenty of time to expand it should instability build farther N/E during the late afternoon. Agreed. We all know what the marine layer does once you get closer to the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 20 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Agreed. We all know what the marine layer does once you get closer to the NYC area. The vis loop a couple of posts up show the lower level pushing due north instead of northwest, wonder if that will keep the marine layer from pushing as far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 71 DBZ hailer in WPA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 At least 4-5 supercells already ongoing in Western PA with hail up to golf ball size and 60MPH+ wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: 71 DBZ hailer in WPA . Radar indicated rotation as well and an appendage on the SW flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 We are targeting an area between Lancaster, PA and Trenton, New Jersey for our chase today. I think that will be the greatest risk area for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Radar indicated rotation as well and an appendage on the SW flank. 2.25 inch hail and and downed trees. At 2:48 PM EDT, Stoneboro [Mercer Co, PA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of 2.25 INCH. NUMEROUS TREES 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: We are targeting an area between Lancaster, PA and Trenton, New Jersey for our chase today. I think that will be the greatest risk area for tornadoes. Lancaster always seems to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 This storm in PA is definitely trying to get more organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 RAP really tries to advect the unstable parameters N&E, will see if it holds any weight. Temps now climbing above 70, dews in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 28, 2019 Author Share Posted May 28, 2019 Latest HRRR sim radar valid in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: RAP really tries to advect the unstable parameters N&E, will see if it holds any weight. Temps now climbing above 70, dews in the mid 60s. 61/61 here with a low cloud deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Warm front approaching the I-78 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Warm front approaching the I-78 corridor. Yes, I'm about 7 miles S of I78 and my temp has jumped up about 6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 the cells to watch later will be those showers developing near the surface low upstate. those should ride southeast towards the city given the shear and instability gradient in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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